ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[HurricaneBelle]

Color NWS Miami unimpressed, from their most recent AFD about 40 minutes ago:

THE MAIN STORY IS A LOW SITTING JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.
THIS LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE WEST AND REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK. IT MAY BRING SOME INCREASED MOISTURE AND ELEVATE THE
INSTABILITY SOME, WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT, IT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK INTO THE GULF , WHERE
IT MAY INTENSIFY SOME, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA.

http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.fxus62.KMFL.html

[jlauderdal]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
313 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT-THU...LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WILL PRODUCE A DEEP
ONSHORE WIND FLOW. LOW LEVEL SWIRL NOTED JUST EAST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST BAHAMAS LOOKS RATHER WELL INITIALIZED BY THE GFS. THE
MODEL PUSHES THE FEATURE SLOWLY WEST TO NEAR GRAND BAHAMA LATE
THU. NHC IS MONITORING THIS FOR POTENTIAL FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

NWS Melbourne nibbling, but have not taken the hook yet...

those nws forecasters in melbourne are no fun...

[jlauderdal]

Color NWS Miami unimpressed, from their most recent AFD about 40 minutes ago:

THE MAIN STORY IS A LOW SITTING JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.
THIS LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE WEST AND REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK. IT MAY BRING SOME INCREASED MOISTURE AND ELEVATE THE
INSTABILITY SOME, WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT, IT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK INTO THE GULF , WHERE
IT MAY INTENSIFY SOME, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA.

http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.fxus62.KMFL.html

they are smart..riding the euro

[jlauderdal]

I wonder if they are going to fly a plane into this maybe later today or tonight?

highly unlikely that soon, maybe tomorrow

[NDG]

Wow, I stepped away for 3 hrs and I come back to 92L organizing by the minute.

[gatorcane]

North winds increasing over Grand Bahama based on mesoscale analysis - indicates low pressure off to the E....

[Blown Away]

Katrina may be the most intense to form 48 hours prior to Florida... The remaining systems to form were at best weak TS...

[tropicwatch]

I was about to take a nap when things started to happen:(

[Sanibel]

Cloud tops are still warm.

[gatorcane]

New 19:15 UTC frame in, convection just continues to take off....system moving very slowly.

[Blown Away]

SST won't be a problem...

[Hurricaneman]

looking at this it has many analog storms that this could pertain to the track

2010 Bonnie
2005 Katrina{First landfall in Florida and will probably not give us the second half of that one as theres too much shear in the gulf}
2002 Edouard
1995 Erin{Minus 2nd landfall}
1984 TD1
1984 Isidore
1983 Barry{Minus 2nd landfall}
1935 Labor Day Hurricane{Extreme of what could happen but least likely}

so out of these analogs anything from 2010 Bonnie to 1995 Erin{Minus 2nd landfall} could be possible depending on the conditions intensity wise

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Blown Away]

looking at this it has many analog storms that this could pertain to the track

2010 Bonnie
2005 Katrina{First landfall in Florida and will probably not give us the second half of that one as theres too much shear in the gulf}
2002 Edouard
1995 Erin{Minus 2nd landfall}
1984 TD1
1984 Isidore
1983 Barry{Minus 2nd landfall}
1935 Labor Day Hurricane{Extreme of what could happen but least likely}

so out of these analogs anything from 2010 Bonnie to 1995 Erin{Minus 2nd landfall} could be possible depending on the conditions intensity wise

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Good job, that's what I found... Hard to pin down a pattern, except for most being generally weak systems...

[jhpigott]

IF (an admittedly big if) this is ever designated a TC, it looks like it is going to be a small/compact system.

[Big O]

looking at this it has many analog storms that this could pertain to the track

2010 Bonnie
2005 Katrina{First landfall in Florida and will probably not give us the second half of that one as theres too much shear in the gulf}
2002 Edouard
1995 Erin{Minus 2nd landfall}
1984 TD1
1984 Isidore
1983 Barry{Minus 2nd landfall}
1935 Labor Day Hurricane{Extreme of what could happen but least likely}

so out of these analogs anything from 2010 Bonnie to 1995 Erin{Minus 2nd landfall} could be possible depending on the conditions intensity wise

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Don't forget 1977-Anita.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, did this ever get its act together quickly today. This morning it looked like bare swirl.

Looks like a player for Florida and then the Gulf!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Quickly coming together this evening--although I will note that surface observations from the northern Bahamas indicate that pressures remain high.

[CrazyC83]

Quickly coming together this evening--although I will note that surface observations from the northern Bahamas indicate that pressures remain high.

The background pressure is like 1020 though? So 1010-1012 might be enough to close it off.

[Blown Away]

Hard to deny this is not developing just looking at the satellite... NHC must see something else keeping the development percentages so low...
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_SE/anim8vis.html

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/east/nhem/carb/rb.html

[Weatherboy1]

Good old Isidore ... I remember getting a day out of grade school for him - and it was absolutely nothing! LOL. As other posters have noted, we do have some instances like Katrina where systems spun up to decent strength in this area. It's just that this season hasn't been anything like 2005 so I'm skeptical we will see something like that ... though you can never say never.

Oh and as always, just my opinion, listen to the experts, etc. etc.