More rain for soCal and Arizona in my opinion. EPAC keeps cranking. I think it could push close to a Marie.
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EPAC: ODILE - Remnants
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 PM PDT WED SEP 10 2014
Odile is currently showing the effects of about 15 kt of
northeasterly vertical wind shear, with the low-level center partly
exposed on the northeastern edge of the main area of convection.
Satellite intensity estimates remain 45 kt from TAFB and 30 kt from
SAB. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains a possibly
conservative 35 kt.
The initial motion is 320/5. The various large-scale models
suggest that Odile will be caught in an area of weak steering
currents for the next 2-3 days, with a slow and erratic motion
expected during this time. After that, a mid-level ridge north of
the cyclone should strengthen some and steer the cyclone toward the
northwest at a faster forward speed. There are two notable changes
to the guidance since the last advisory. First, most of the
guidance suggests a westward or southwestward motion during the
first 36 hours or so. Second, the overall guidance envelope has
shifted to the left. This includes the latest ECMWF model, which
forecasts a track farther from the coast of Mexico than its previous
run. The new forecast track is shifted to the left in response to
these changes, although it lies to the right of the center of the
guidance envelope. It should be noted that the GFDL and HWRF
models are still to the right of the new forecast, showing a track
close to mainland Mexico.
Odile is expected to remain in an area of moderate shear for the
next 24 hours or so, after which the large-scale models suggest the
shear should diminish. This should allow at least steady
strengthening until the cyclone reaches colder water near the end of
the forecast period. An alternative forecast scenario, supported by
the SHIPS and GFS models, is that Odile undergoes rapid
intensification after 24-36 hours when the shear diminishes. The
new intensity forecast shows an increased intensity after 36 hours
in best general agreement with the intensity consensus. However, it
is well below the SHIPS model, which forecasts Odile to be a major
hurricane by 72 hours.
A tropical storm watch could be needed for a portion of the coast of
southwestern Mexico tonight. Regardless, locally heavy rains
are possible across that area later this week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 15.3N 103.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 15.5N 103.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 15.7N 103.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 15.8N 103.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 16.2N 104.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 17.5N 105.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 20.5N 108.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 24.0N 112.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 PM PDT WED SEP 10 2014
Odile is currently showing the effects of about 15 kt of
northeasterly vertical wind shear, with the low-level center partly
exposed on the northeastern edge of the main area of convection.
Satellite intensity estimates remain 45 kt from TAFB and 30 kt from
SAB. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains a possibly
conservative 35 kt.
The initial motion is 320/5. The various large-scale models
suggest that Odile will be caught in an area of weak steering
currents for the next 2-3 days, with a slow and erratic motion
expected during this time. After that, a mid-level ridge north of
the cyclone should strengthen some and steer the cyclone toward the
northwest at a faster forward speed. There are two notable changes
to the guidance since the last advisory. First, most of the
guidance suggests a westward or southwestward motion during the
first 36 hours or so. Second, the overall guidance envelope has
shifted to the left. This includes the latest ECMWF model, which
forecasts a track farther from the coast of Mexico than its previous
run. The new forecast track is shifted to the left in response to
these changes, although it lies to the right of the center of the
guidance envelope. It should be noted that the GFDL and HWRF
models are still to the right of the new forecast, showing a track
close to mainland Mexico.
Odile is expected to remain in an area of moderate shear for the
next 24 hours or so, after which the large-scale models suggest the
shear should diminish. This should allow at least steady
strengthening until the cyclone reaches colder water near the end of
the forecast period. An alternative forecast scenario, supported by
the SHIPS and GFS models, is that Odile undergoes rapid
intensification after 24-36 hours when the shear diminishes. The
new intensity forecast shows an increased intensity after 36 hours
in best general agreement with the intensity consensus. However, it
is well below the SHIPS model, which forecasts Odile to be a major
hurricane by 72 hours.
A tropical storm watch could be needed for a portion of the coast of
southwestern Mexico tonight. Regardless, locally heavy rains
are possible across that area later this week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 15.3N 103.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 15.5N 103.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 15.7N 103.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 15.8N 103.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 16.2N 104.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 17.5N 105.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 20.5N 108.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 24.0N 112.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
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Gotta have more recon baby!
cycloneye wrote:PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK; FIX TROPICAL STORM ODILE
NEAR 15.9N 103.3W AT 12/1900Z.
So recon is going out Friday at 3:00 pm EDT? This might be one of those extremely rare times recon goes in while its strengthening or exploding instead of a collapsing TS. This could be big!
supercane4867 wrote:12z GFS rapidly deepens Odile to 950mb in 72 hours
.CrazyC83 wrote:Could this try to run up the Gulf of California and thread the needle?
Asked it already. What do all of you think the rate of occurrence for that is? Once in 250, 500, 1000, or 2000 years?
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm
Looks very organized although the center is partially exposed
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WTPZ45 KNHC 110240
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 PM PDT WED SEP 10 2014
Odile's low-level center remains exposed on the northeastern edge
of the deep convection due to about 15 kt of north-northeasterly
shear. The Dvorak satellite estimate from TAFB is still 45 kt,
while the estimate from SAB has increased to 35 kt, so the initial
intensity is raised to 40 kt. The vertical shear is expected to
gradually abate during the next 24 or so, which should allow Odile
to steadily strengthen. After that time, low shear and very warm
waters should support a faster rate of intensification, and Odile
is forecast to become a hurricane in about 36 hours. The SHIPS
model is still the most aggressive intensity model, showing Odile
reaching major hurricane status by day 3. The NHC intensity
forecast is very close to an average of the SHIPS and LGEM models
and is only a little higher than the previous forecast at days 3
and 4.
Odile is slowing down in weak steering flow, and the initial motion
estimate is 310/3 kt. The cyclone is expected to remain in
this environment for another 48 hours and will likely meander or
drift generally west-northwestward during this time. By day 3, a
mid-level high over the northern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to
expand westward over Mexico and cause Odile to accelerate toward
the northwest through the end of the forecast period. The track
guidance has again shifted westward on this cycle, and now all of
the models, except for the GFDL, bring the center of Odile west of
the Baja California peninsula on days 4 and 5. The updated NHC
track forecast lies to the west of the previous forecast and the
model consensus TVCE, especially after 48 hours. However, the most
reliable global models, the GFS and ECMWF, are even farther west,
and additional adjustments to the NHC forecast may be required on
future advisories.
Even though the forecast track has shifted a little further away
from the Mexican coast, there is a lot of uncertainty about how big
Odile's wind field will get in a couple of days. Most of the
guidance shows a significant increase in the 34-kt wind radii, and
on this basis, the Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm
watch for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Lazaro Cardenas to
Manzanillo.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 15.5N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 15.6N 103.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 15.6N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 15.7N 104.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 16.2N 104.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 18.0N 106.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 21.0N 110.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 24.0N 113.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
WTPZ45 KNHC 110240
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 PM PDT WED SEP 10 2014
Odile's low-level center remains exposed on the northeastern edge
of the deep convection due to about 15 kt of north-northeasterly
shear. The Dvorak satellite estimate from TAFB is still 45 kt,
while the estimate from SAB has increased to 35 kt, so the initial
intensity is raised to 40 kt. The vertical shear is expected to
gradually abate during the next 24 or so, which should allow Odile
to steadily strengthen. After that time, low shear and very warm
waters should support a faster rate of intensification, and Odile
is forecast to become a hurricane in about 36 hours. The SHIPS
model is still the most aggressive intensity model, showing Odile
reaching major hurricane status by day 3. The NHC intensity
forecast is very close to an average of the SHIPS and LGEM models
and is only a little higher than the previous forecast at days 3
and 4.
Odile is slowing down in weak steering flow, and the initial motion
estimate is 310/3 kt. The cyclone is expected to remain in
this environment for another 48 hours and will likely meander or
drift generally west-northwestward during this time. By day 3, a
mid-level high over the northern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to
expand westward over Mexico and cause Odile to accelerate toward
the northwest through the end of the forecast period. The track
guidance has again shifted westward on this cycle, and now all of
the models, except for the GFDL, bring the center of Odile west of
the Baja California peninsula on days 4 and 5. The updated NHC
track forecast lies to the west of the previous forecast and the
model consensus TVCE, especially after 48 hours. However, the most
reliable global models, the GFS and ECMWF, are even farther west,
and additional adjustments to the NHC forecast may be required on
future advisories.
Even though the forecast track has shifted a little further away
from the Mexican coast, there is a lot of uncertainty about how big
Odile's wind field will get in a couple of days. Most of the
guidance shows a significant increase in the 34-kt wind radii, and
on this basis, the Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm
watch for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Lazaro Cardenas to
Manzanillo.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 15.5N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 15.6N 103.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 15.6N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 15.7N 104.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 16.2N 104.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 18.0N 106.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 21.0N 110.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 24.0N 113.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
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WTPZ45 KNHC 110832
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014
Odile has a classic shear pattern in infrared imagery, with the
center located along a very sharp gradient in cloud top temperatures
on the northeast side of the main convective cloud mass. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T3.0/45 kt, and that is the
initial intensity for this advisory. The SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS
satellite analysis show moderate northeasterly shear affecting the
cyclone, and this should continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. This
shear will likely keep Odile from intensifying too quickly despite
otherwise favorable conditions. After that time, the shear should
lessen and steadier intensification is expected. The SHIPS model
continues to have the most aggressive forecast, and shows Odile
reaching major hurricane intensity in about 72 hours. The official
forecast is similar to the previous one and is roughly between the
SHIPS model and the IVCN consensus aid.
The initial motion estimate is 270/02, as Odile appears to have been
drifting westward over the past few hours. Steering currents will
remain weak for the next 24 to 36 hours, and during this time much
of the GFS-based guidance now shows Odile making a small cyclonic
loop with some southward component of motion. The ECMWF shows little
motion during the first 24 hours, and a northwestward motion
starting by 36 hours. The NHC forecast during the first 36 hours is
a blend of these solutions and shows a slow westward drift, although
some erratic motion is possible during this time. After 36 hours,
Odile will come under the influence of a building subtropical ridge
to its northeast, which should result in an acceleration toward the
northwest through the remainder of the forecast period. The guidance
remains in good agreement on this scenario with the exception of the
GFDL, which continues to be a right outlier. The new NHC track
forecast is a little to the left of the previous one, in part due to
the initial position and motion. The NHC forecast is close to the
ECMWF solution after 48 hours and is a little to the left of the
TVCE multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 15.5N 104.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 15.5N 104.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 15.5N 104.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 15.5N 104.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 16.1N 105.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 18.5N 108.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 21.5N 111.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 24.5N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brennan
WTPZ45 KNHC 110832
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014
Odile has a classic shear pattern in infrared imagery, with the
center located along a very sharp gradient in cloud top temperatures
on the northeast side of the main convective cloud mass. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T3.0/45 kt, and that is the
initial intensity for this advisory. The SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS
satellite analysis show moderate northeasterly shear affecting the
cyclone, and this should continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. This
shear will likely keep Odile from intensifying too quickly despite
otherwise favorable conditions. After that time, the shear should
lessen and steadier intensification is expected. The SHIPS model
continues to have the most aggressive forecast, and shows Odile
reaching major hurricane intensity in about 72 hours. The official
forecast is similar to the previous one and is roughly between the
SHIPS model and the IVCN consensus aid.
The initial motion estimate is 270/02, as Odile appears to have been
drifting westward over the past few hours. Steering currents will
remain weak for the next 24 to 36 hours, and during this time much
of the GFS-based guidance now shows Odile making a small cyclonic
loop with some southward component of motion. The ECMWF shows little
motion during the first 24 hours, and a northwestward motion
starting by 36 hours. The NHC forecast during the first 36 hours is
a blend of these solutions and shows a slow westward drift, although
some erratic motion is possible during this time. After 36 hours,
Odile will come under the influence of a building subtropical ridge
to its northeast, which should result in an acceleration toward the
northwest through the remainder of the forecast period. The guidance
remains in good agreement on this scenario with the exception of the
GFDL, which continues to be a right outlier. The new NHC track
forecast is a little to the left of the previous one, in part due to
the initial position and motion. The NHC forecast is close to the
ECMWF solution after 48 hours and is a little to the left of the
TVCE multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 15.5N 104.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 15.5N 104.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 15.5N 104.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 15.5N 104.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 16.1N 105.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 18.5N 108.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 21.5N 111.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 24.5N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brennan
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WTPZ35 KNHC 111148
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
500 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014
...ODILE IDLE OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 104.1W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.1 WEST. ODILE IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 1 MPH...2 KM/H...AND A SLOW WESTWARD
DRIFT OR ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLOW MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ODILE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY FRIDAY.
SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
WTPZ35 KNHC 111148
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
500 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014
...ODILE IDLE OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 104.1W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.1 WEST. ODILE IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 1 MPH...2 KM/H...AND A SLOW WESTWARD
DRIFT OR ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLOW MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ODILE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY FRIDAY.
SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
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15E ODILE 140911 1800 15.2N 104.4W EPAC 50 997
Intensifying. Can it add to the train of successive hurricanes before 16E becomes a tropical storm?
Intensifying. Can it add to the train of successive hurricanes before 16E becomes a tropical storm?
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WTPZ45 KNHC 112036
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014
Conventional satellite imagery shows a sheared tropical storm with
the center of circulation just beneath the northeastern edge of the
deep convective cloud canopy. Although the shear appears to have
increased a bit this afternoon, convective spiral banding features
have become better organized, and a blend of the latest Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates reflect this overall improvement.
Subsequently, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt. The
intensity forecast remains unchanged for this advisory with the
northeasterly shear relaxing in 24-36 hours. Through the remaining
portion of the forecast, the global models and the SHIPS intensity
model indicate an upper-wind environment conducive for strengthening
through day 5. The official intensity forecast shows this
intensification trend with Odile becoming a major hurricane in 3
days.
The initial motion is slightly left of the previous track and is
estimated to be toward the west-southwest or 255/02. This general
motion, although somewhat erratic, should continue during the
next 12-24 hours at which time Odile should begin a northwestward
motion in response to a mid-level ridge building to the northeast
of the cyclone. Odile is forecast to maintain this northwestward
track with a gradual increase in forward speed through the
remainder of the forecast period. The official NHC forecast is
again shifted a bit to the left of the previous forecast track
and splits between the TVCE and GFEX dynamical consensus models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 15.1N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 15.1N 104.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 15.3N 105.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 15.7N 105.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 16.6N 106.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.4N 110.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 22.2N 113.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 24.0N 117.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
Forecaster Roberts
WTPZ45 KNHC 112036
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014
Conventional satellite imagery shows a sheared tropical storm with
the center of circulation just beneath the northeastern edge of the
deep convective cloud canopy. Although the shear appears to have
increased a bit this afternoon, convective spiral banding features
have become better organized, and a blend of the latest Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates reflect this overall improvement.
Subsequently, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt. The
intensity forecast remains unchanged for this advisory with the
northeasterly shear relaxing in 24-36 hours. Through the remaining
portion of the forecast, the global models and the SHIPS intensity
model indicate an upper-wind environment conducive for strengthening
through day 5. The official intensity forecast shows this
intensification trend with Odile becoming a major hurricane in 3
days.
The initial motion is slightly left of the previous track and is
estimated to be toward the west-southwest or 255/02. This general
motion, although somewhat erratic, should continue during the
next 12-24 hours at which time Odile should begin a northwestward
motion in response to a mid-level ridge building to the northeast
of the cyclone. Odile is forecast to maintain this northwestward
track with a gradual increase in forward speed through the
remainder of the forecast period. The official NHC forecast is
again shifted a bit to the left of the previous forecast track
and splits between the TVCE and GFEX dynamical consensus models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 15.1N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 15.1N 104.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 15.3N 105.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 15.7N 105.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 16.6N 106.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.4N 110.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 22.2N 113.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 24.0N 117.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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WeatherGuesser
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Yellow Evan
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- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
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000
WTPZ35 KNHC 112353
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
500 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014
...ODILE MEANDERING SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 104.6W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST. ODILE HAS
BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IT IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE MEANDERING THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ODILE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY FRIDAY.
SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
WTPZ35 KNHC 112353
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
500 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014
...ODILE MEANDERING SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 104.6W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST. ODILE HAS
BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IT IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE MEANDERING THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ODILE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY FRIDAY.
SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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supercane4867
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm
TXPZ22 KNES 120018
TCSENP
A. 15E (ODILE)
B. 11/2345Z
C. 15.4N
D. 104.6W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T2.0/3.0/W1.0/18HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...WELL DEFINED CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. CIRCULATION IS DEFINED BY CIRCULAR, TIGHTLY DEFINED
CLOUD LINES WITH A CENTER LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES TO THE NORTH OF A SMALL
AREA OF ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION MEASURING LESS THAN 1.5 DEGREES. PT AND
MET ARE ALSO 2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
TCSENP
A. 15E (ODILE)
B. 11/2345Z
C. 15.4N
D. 104.6W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T2.0/3.0/W1.0/18HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...WELL DEFINED CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. CIRCULATION IS DEFINED BY CIRCULAR, TIGHTLY DEFINED
CLOUD LINES WITH A CENTER LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES TO THE NORTH OF A SMALL
AREA OF ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION MEASURING LESS THAN 1.5 DEGREES. PT AND
MET ARE ALSO 2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
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Yellow Evan
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