ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Nimbus]

I have a feeling that they will wait for a recon flight and post warnings as a named storm.
With about 24 hours advance warning before landfall you know what the storm is and still have time to take effective action.

[NDG]

Despite the current presentation with increasing convection over a low level center the pro's probably are also considering the possibility of another collapse event like we saw yesterday morning.

Dry air shearing into the center, then you see an outflow boundary and the system is dead for the next 24 hours.

Thanks for the buoy link that will help! The center circulation looks about the size of a tornado ATM.
Never a go fast boat around when you need one..

That will be key, with it running out of ocean soon it needs to sustain convection overnight for it to be much by the time it reaches the FL coast.

if it can maintain and increase convection overnight and then we get euro support on next run we have something to deal with..those two conditions need to be met

IMO, the Euro has not done so well with this system, very inconsistent, some runs it showed a nice vorticity to later on just show a broad circulation on the following run. With Homegrown systems is better to look at actual conditions and its trends, some times global models do not do that well with small systems like 92L.

[jlauderdal]

Despite the current presentation with increasing convection over a low level center the pro's probably are also considering the possibility of another collapse event like we saw yesterday morning.

Dry air shearing into the center, then you see an outflow boundary and the system is dead for the next 24 hours.




]

if it can maintain and increase convection overnight and then we get euro support on next run we have something to deal with..those two conditions need to be met

IMO, the Euro has not done so well with this system, very inconsistent, some runs it showed a nice vorticity to later on just show a broad circulation on the following run. With Homegrown systems is better to look at actual conditions and its trends, some times global models do not do that well with small systems like 92L.

we certainly cant argue with what is happening outside the window...this system has had a very good afternoon to be sure...lets see if it can maintain and build..kind of like the dolphins, they had a good game, lets see if it continues before declaring them a champ

[NDG]

[USTropics]

Last 10 images saved to animated .gif (courtesy of NASA GOES-E 1KM):

[blp]

Last 10 images saved to animated .gif (courtesy of NASA GOES-E 1KM):

[]http://i.imgur.com/L2eK2f8.gif[/img]

Almost looks like multiple vort maxes in that loop.

[gatorcane]

looks more than just a "surface trough" to me. It's got that look it is ready to organize to me. Very clear cyclonic turning noted.

[Hurricaneman]

I see outflow boundries coming from the center, its the only negative I can see at the moment but new storms are also firing on the south side so its still organizing and trying to mix out some of the stable air

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[northjaxpro]

If you look extremely close, you can see what was a naked LLC/vort now tucking under the convection just off to its northwest. The LLC is drifting west-west/northwest currently

[gatorcane]

:uarrow:
If you look extremely close, you can see what was a naked LLC/vort now tucking under the convection just off to its northwest. The LLC is drifting west-west/northwest currently

Here is a nice loop to see the overall progression of this invest plus you can see that naked swirl tucking underneath:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... x.DAY.jpg&

[jlauderdal]

Last 10 images saved to animated .gif (courtesy of NASA GOES-E 1KM):

that looks like a mighty intense outflow boundary heading west, that is not a very good sign for development

[ronjon]

:uarrow:
If you look extremely close, you can see what was a naked LLC/vort now tucking under the convection just off to its northwest. The LLC is drifting west-west/northwest currently

Clear circulation center from the rotating low clouds, ECM showed some rather stout 850 mb vorticity. Think just a matter of time before we see a tropical cyclone.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow:
If you look extremely close, you can see what was a naked LLC/vort now tucking under the convection just off to its northwest. The LLC is drifting west-west/northwest currently

Here is a nice loop to see the overall progression of this invest plus you can see that naked swirl tucking underneath:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... x.DAY.jpg&

Yeah, excellent loop gatorcane. Thanks for providing the link.

[floridasun78]

look like shear from east because low expose to east

[NDG]

Not sure if mentioned but 18z NAM shows 3-5 inches of rain for parts of SE FL over the next few days from this system.

[USTropics]

Here is another closer look at how things have progressed over the past 6 hours:

http://gifmaker.cc/PlayGIFAnimation.php?folder=2014091008tdNisniTxSDx2GMlNQKn0I&file=output_3wxAvm.gif

[blp]

Here is another closer look at how things have progressed over the past 6 hours:

http://gifmaker.cc/PlayGIFAnimation.php?folder=2014091008tdNisniTxSDx2GMlNQKn0I&file=output_3wxAvm.gif

Looks elongated to me.

[USTropics]

It appears to me to have multiple vorticies rotating around the center. The last few visible images show one taking form just north of Eleuthera Island. CIMSS vorticity overlay also indicating this is the strongest area for vorticity. I placed a red arrow indicating what I'm referring to:

[blp]

It appears to me to have multiple vorticies rotating around the center. The last few visible images show one taking form just north of Eleuthera Island. CIMSS vorticity overlay also indicating this is the strongest area for vorticity. I placed a red arrow indicating what I'm referring to:

http://i.imgur.com/4Ls9TTH.jpg

Yep that is what I am seeing two vorticies around the broad elongated area. This is going to take longer than I first thought.

[Hurricaneman]

It appears to me to have multiple vorticies rotating around the center. The last few visible images show one taking form just north of Eleuthera Island. CIMSS vorticity overlay also indicating this is the strongest area for vorticity. I placed a red arrow indicating what I'm referring to:

http://i.imgur.com/4Ls9TTH.jpg

thats an eddy moving around the main low I believe