Texas Fall-2014

[iorange55]

I have to say, the first real "cool" front of the season is almost as exciting as the first real chance of snow.

[Ralph's Weather]

I am watching this closely, and it looks like we are in for an exciting fall and winter. I can see the clouds from the storms at my place in Lindale.

[Ntxw]

I'm having trouble pinpointing the rain opportunities. Different models portray a little bit differently. I think the heaviest rain potential is Friday period when the secondary surge of cooler air kicks in from strong HP settling just to our north. Tonight and tomorrow looks spotty unless you trust some of the shorter term guidance which puts a little more sooner. Temps can vary with rain coverage until the stronger push tomorrow night into Friday.

Bowie and Decatur have switched to northerly winds and gusting at times 70s and 80s while Denton and Ft Worth are still S/SE in the 90s. Somewhere in between there.

[Portastorm]

I have to say, the first real "cool" front of the season is almost as exciting as the first real chance of snow.

Given how badly we're usually pounded by the Texas summer heat, I think you're right about enthusiasm for that first front which truly breaks the back of summer. And I think I would say this front is in that category.

[dhweather]

I have to say, the first real "cool" front of the season is almost as exciting as the first real chance of snow.

Given how badly we're usually pounded by the Texas summer heat, I think you're right about enthusiasm for that first front which truly breaks the back of summer. And I think I would say this front is in that category.

We got off light this year in DFW, temperature wise. Somewhere between 15-20 100+ days, that's all. It was what, 70 total in 2011?

Saturday will seem cold at 78-80. I was going to pressure wash the pool filters, which I usually do in the 90's to enjoy the cooling off of the water. Oh well.

[weatherdude1108]

I leave the site for a day, and see a major turn of events. I am getting pumped! Of course as always based on my history lately, I'll believe it when I see it. But, srainhoutx and Ntxw have a lot of parameters explained to back it. This is going to be an interesting period! Nice change!! Bye bye Summer!:)

[South Texas Storms]

Here is a good infographic from the Austin/San Antonio National Weather Service Office on the cold front arriving on Friday. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in some areas, with high temperatures likely in the 70s and 80s this weekend. I'm ready for the rain and cooler temperatures!

[gpsnowman]

So are we still on for a secondary surge of cool air next week? Have not heard much about it the last couple days.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose is encouraging as well.

If everything works out as planned, Wednesday's readings should be the last of the very hot temperatures of the year.

And beyond next week, conditions still don't appear favorable for the development of extreme heat as the autumnal equinox occurs. So say good bye to the triple digits; slightly cooler weather is just around the corner.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[Ntxw]

So are we still on for a secondary surge of cool air next week? Have not heard much about it the last couple days.

Not really anymore. This cold front knocks it down and it stays down for awhile. It's more of unsettled weather, clouds, rain and holding steady in the low 80s next week from what they are showing. Watch the tropics.

[weatherdude1108]

Could this be the beginning of an El Nino type pattern? I love the first sentence of this morning's discussion from EWX!

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE TYPICAL WARM AND MUGGY MORNINGS WITH LOW CLOUDS WILL COME TO
AN END TODAY AS A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS COMING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM JUST
NORTHWEST OF DFW TO JUST SOUTH OF SJT...WILL SAG SOUTH TO NEAR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT AND MOIST GULF AIR WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY
AND GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THESE STORMS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...FIRST
NOTICEABLE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...THEN MUCH MORE SO BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MODERATE AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS USHER IN
COOLER AIR. THE FRONT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...AND PRECIP. WATER
NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALL POINT TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. THOSE PLANNING TO ATTEND FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAMES SHOULD
PLAN ACCORDINGLY FOR TRAVEL DELAYS AND POSSIBLE GAME DELAYS.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE MAIN CONFLUENCE OF INGREDIENTS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ALONG WITH THE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE...STORM MOTIONS
FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH (FROM THE LCL TO THE
0C LEVEL) OF 3.3 KM POINT TOWARD FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR WARM-
RAIN PROCESSES AND STORM ECHO TRAINING...WHICH CAN LEAD TO VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN FROM NOON FRIDAY THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. WHILE THERE IS STILL SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND
PRIMARY THREAT AREA...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
FOR THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING PERIOD. IT WILL
BE NOTICEABLY COOLER SATURDAY WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER...
RAIN...AND LOW- LEVEL CAA.

AFTER THE INITIAL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE REMNANT
EASTERLY WAVE NOW IN THE GULF DISSIPATES OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE...THERE WILL BE ONGOING LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS RIPPLES IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS AND
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM
ODILE COINCIDE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDCOVER...STORMS...AND COOL OUTFLOWS.

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville early morning discussion.....I'm beginning to get a bit excited!

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...INGREDIENTS FOR A
HEAVY RAIN EVENT COMING TOGETHER EARLY IN THE LONG TERM THEN A
QUICK TAPERING OFF OF THE RAIN MACHINE SUNDAY HOWEVER RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WITH GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURATED THROUGH THE COLUMN
WHICH HAS NOT BEEN SEEN HERE IN A LONG WHILE. ECMWF NOT AS
SATURATED BUT DEEP MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE. UPPER
DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE
ENTIRE TEXAS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
FRONT THAT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. COASTAL TROUGHING
WITH E-NE SURFACE WINDS AIDE WITH THE CONVERGENCE AND THE INFLUX
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AS THE SE 850-700MB FLOW STRENGTHENS
INCREASING THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.2 AND 2.5
INCHES. THIS DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY TO
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TRAINING
OF CELLS WITH A MODERATE 850-700MB SE FLOW THE FRONT ACTING AS A
LOW LEVEL FOCUS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLOODING
MIGHT BECOME AN ISSUE IN LOW LYING AREAS AND WHERE PROLONG
TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. TOO EARLY FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINFALL LAST WEEK HAS SLIGHTLY PRIMED THE SOIL CONDITIONS AND
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 1 TO 2 INCHES LOWER THEN BEFORE LAST WEEKS
RAINFALL. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 80 PERCENT SATURDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
TEMPERATURES TO TAKE HIT SATURDAY AND ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID
80S AND MAY ONLY REMAIN NEAR 80S WITH THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MONDAY...MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
DRY OUT AND MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT ON TAPERING OFF THE RAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY AS
THE OLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY JUST OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
850-700MB WINDS REMAIN SOUTHEAST WHICH SHOULD AIDE IN THE LOW TO
MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE. ECMWF SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH MONDAY MOVING
INTO NE MEXICO WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE ON THE GFS ON THIS FEATURE.
30-40 PERCENT POPS SHOULD SUFFICE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND 20-30
PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. SLOW RECOVERY OF
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH THE SLOW DRYING.

[Ntxw]

Pacific Ocean, ignore it at one's peril. The largest weather engine geographically on Earth.

[Portastorm]

Pacific Ocean, ignore it at one's peril. The largest weather engine geographically on Earth.

Indeed and as you have been touching upon in multiple posts, recently, the Pacific is going to drive our fall and winter. It's pretty much dictating our current weather for that matter.

Hoping these QPF forecasts for south central Texas of 1-3" by Sunday verify.

[dhweather]

Well, that "Heavy Rain" potential discussed by FWD for this morning was a bigger bust than Dolly Parton. In fact, it appears the entire discussion of rain was largely a facade for most of North Texas. Here's hoping the second front produces some precipitation, I'm just not counting on it. If it does, FWD is talking 1/4 to maybe 1/2" total. The vicious drought cycle continues.

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion....Rain Rain Rain!!!

FRIDAY...BY MID TO LATE MORNING A MUCH MORE SATURATED AIR MASS SHOULD
BE IN PLACE WITH A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE COLUMN PROJECTED TO HAVE
RH VALUES OVER 70 PERCENT. THIS SHOULD WORK WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE
ALOFT FROM THE RETREATING UPPER LOW AND THE WEAK CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING TROPICAL WAVE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT PREVAILING NORTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD ALSO HELP A DECENT SEA BREEZE FRONT GET STARTED...
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A LITTLE MORE SUN EARLY IN THE MORNING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
MOVING INTO THE 2.0 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE. A BRIEF DROP OFF IN
COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING WANES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN 850/700MB TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG CONVERGENCE IN THIS
AREA...WITH 850MB WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 35 KTS...WHICH LOOKS
APPROPRIATE CONSIDERING CURRENT SCATTEROMETER AND GOES DERIVED WIND
FIELD PLOTS...PUMPS IN EVEN RICHER AND DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD
WORK WITH THE LOW CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SOME TROPICAL BANDING SHOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGIME
AND WITH PWAT VALUES FROM NUMEROUS 12Z GUIDANCE MEMBERS RANGING FROM
2.2 TO 2.5 INCHES A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING EXISTS. STILL TOO EARLY FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT WITH 6
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AROUND 3 INCHES ENOUGH OF A RISK MAY
DEVELOP TO REQUIRE A WATCH DURING LATER SHIFTS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
IF ANY BANDING SETS UP OVER THE METROPOLITAN AREAS WHICH COULD
PRODUCE A QUICK 4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL. AREA AVERAGES WILL BE
LESS...LIKELY AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES. /68-JGG/

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
FOR THIS PD WILL BE RAIN ON SATURDAY. FOLLOWING UP FROM FRIDAY...
A DISSIPATING FRONT OVER THE RGV WILL INTERACT WITH TROPICAL WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE AREA. MANY LOCATIONS COULD ACHIEVE THEIR
MONTHLY RAINFALL AVERAGE FOR SEPTEMBER OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON SAT AS THE INGREDIENTS
COME TOGETHER...CONCENTRATED MAINLY OVER THE LOWER VALLEY AND ALONG
THE RIVER HEADING INLAND TO THE MID AND UPPER VALLEY. AMOUNTS FOR
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE BRUSH COUNTRY/RANCH LANDS MAY BE A BIT
LESS. SEPTEMBER IS OUR WETTEST MONTH FOR THE SAME REASONS AS WILL BE
IN PLAY THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE STEERING FLOW THIS TIME
OF YEAR TENDS TO CHANNEL TROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST...AND WHEN STILL RELATIVELY WEAK AUTUMN FRONTS COME INTO THE
PICTURE...WITH THE POTENTIAL TRIGGERING LIFT...ENHANCED RAINFALL
SCENARIOS ARE THE RESULT.

SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR RAIN...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...OVER
MOST OF THE CWA. A HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE THE NORM FOR MOST OF THE VALLEY. DUE TO THE THICKER CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. URBAN
FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IN ANY POPULATED AREAS AND ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY...LIGHTER RESIDUAL RAINS WILL OCCUR...
BUT SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME GULLY WASHERS WITH
HEAVY RAIN. A SEA BREEZE MAY BE A POSSIBILITY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS AND THE REMAINING ELEVATED MOISTURE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN DEPRESSED IN THE 80S.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE AREA PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LIFT.
NONETHELESS...HIGH TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT UP AS MORE SUNSHINE
ENTERS THE PICTURE.

STILL A BIT EARLY FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT CONFIDENCE IN HEAVIER
SOAKING RAINS IS HIGH. FLASH FLOODING WILL DEPEND ON STORM DURATION
AND TRAINING. WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL LAST WEEK HAS PRIMED SOIL
CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 1 TO 2 INCHES LOWER
THEN BEFORE LAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...BUT IS STILL 3 TO 5 INCHES IN AN
HOUR. MAINTAINED POPS AT 80 PERCENT SATURDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY REGION WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
AND THE MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT ON TAPERING OFF RAIN CHANCES...
THOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND COULD COUPLE WITH A
LIGHT EASTERLY WIND AND THE OLD FRONT STATIONARY JUST OFF THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST. 850-700MB WINDS REMAIN SOUTHEAST WHICH SHOULD AIDE IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE. 30-40 PERCENT POPS SHOULD SUFFICE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND 20-30 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME. SLOW RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH THE SLOW DRYING.

[Portastorm]

Well, that "Heavy Rain" potential discussed by FWD for this morning was a bigger bust than Dolly Parton. In fact, it appears the entire discussion of rain was largely a facade for most of North Texas. Here's hoping the second front produces some precipitation, I'm just not counting on it. If it does, FWD is talking 1/4 to maybe 1/2" total. The vicious drought cycle continues.

I'm growing concerned as well ... latest models are backing off on QPF amounts. However, our friend Rgv20 in the Valley looks to be stealing OUR rain! Latest trends soak deep South Texas. Eh, we'll see. Tomorrow is a new day and perhaps a different precip pattern will establish itself.

Outside of the precipitation black hole over your house, dhweather, I do think North Texas will begin seeing increasing rain chances every few days. The Pacific is our friend.

Don't feel too bad, I have a snow/ice block over my house.

[dhweather]

Well, that "Heavy Rain" potential discussed by FWD for this morning was a bigger bust than Dolly Parton. In fact, it appears the entire discussion of rain was largely a facade for most of North Texas. Here's hoping the second front produces some precipitation, I'm just not counting on it. If it does, FWD is talking 1/4 to maybe 1/2" total. The vicious drought cycle continues.

I'm growing concerned as well ... latest models are backing off on QPF amounts. However, our friend Rgv20 in the Valley looks to be stealing OUR rain! Latest trends soak deep South Texas. Eh, we'll see. Tomorrow is a new day and perhaps a different precip pattern will establish itself.

Outside of the precipitation black hole over your house, dhweather, I do think North Texas will begin seeing increasing rain chances every few days. The Pacific is our friend.

Don't feel too bad, I have a snow/ice block over my house.

Yes, the rain gods frown on me as the ice gods frown on you.

[Ntxw]

HRRR is probably overdoing it, but potential is there for training and some very high rainfalls somewhere overnight. Dew points are very high as well as pwats as better lift arrives. Watch out for flooding if you get hit.

[weatherdude1108]

I just heard what I thought was a raccoon getting on roof. I stepped outside to let dog do her business. There were HUGE raindrop markings on the patio. I looked up, and I saw partly cloudy skies and stars. Then a few more big drops rained down while I was out there. Weirdest thing! It is like the atmosphere is transforming itself on top of me or something(?). If the drops are that big with a few sprinkles, we are going to have an efficient rain machine later!