EPAC: SIXTEEN-E - Remnants

[CrazyC83]

No need to rush when far from land, but yeah if this continues longer we may have TD16E (or Polo?). Already at P in mid-September...that is a faster pace than the 2005 Atlantic season! (And Rachel may not be far behind if 96E develops)

[Yellow Evan]

No need to rush when far from land, but yeah if this continues longer we may have TD16E (or Polo?). Already at P in mid-September...that is a faster pace than the 2005 Atlantic season! (And Rachel may not be far behind if 96E develops)

Well, to be fair, the EPAC peaks sooner than ATL.

[Ntxw]

No need to rush when far from land, but yeah if this continues longer we may have TD16E (or Polo?). Already at P in mid-September...that is a faster pace than the 2005 Atlantic season! (And Rachel may not be far behind if 96E develops)

There is another potential big system SE of Odile in the making along the Mexican Riviera. At least per the GFS, not associated with 95E or 96E.

[Ntxw]

Satellite

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Satellite

No storm floaters have updated since 15z (11am EDT).

[supercane4867]

Latest visible imagery from NRL

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 95, 2014091100, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1187W, 30, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Hint or no? I say no due to low pressure.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

T2.0 from SAB and still...no advisory.

[Yellow Evan]

This looks better than Dolly ever did sans maybe an hour prior to landfall.

I'd almost go as far as saying it looks better than Bertha ever did.

[Extratropical94]

A low pressure system located about 800 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little in
organization during the past few hours. However, only a slight
increase in organization would lead to the development of a tropical
depression, and advisories could still be initiated overnight or on
Thursday while the low moves northward at about 5 mph. The low is
forecast to turn eastward by Friday and could be absorbed by Odile
over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

A low pressure system located about 800 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little in
organization during the past few hours. However, only a slight
increase in organization would lead to the development of a tropical
depression, and advisories could still be initiated overnight or on
Thursday while the low moves northward at about 5 mph. The low is
forecast to turn eastward by Friday and could be absorbed by Odile
over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 95, 2014091106, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1188W, 30, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 90, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 95, 2014091112, , BEST, 0, 156N, 1192W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 140, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Based on the lower pressures, hint of an upgrade?

[somethingfunny]

The latest TWO doesn't include the words I wanted to specifically bold but last night's....

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located about
800 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has become a little less organized, with the center
becoming displaced to the north of the shower and thunderstorm
activity. However, only a slight increase in organization of the
system would lead to the development of a tropical depression, and
advisories could still be initiated tonight or on Thursday while the
low moves northward at about 5 mph. The low is forecast to turn
eastward by Friday and could become absorbed by Odile over the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

So... it has a center... and because it's displaced it doesn't meet the criteria for a depression in the Pacific. ... this lends evidence for how wildly different the classification standards are in the Atlantic compared to the Pacific. Dolly was never this organized, but it had a "center" and a recon mission.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

[supercane4867]

16E SIXTEEN 140911 0600 14.5N 118.8W EPAC 30 1009

[South Texas Storms]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014
830 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014

First-light visible satellite imagery and microwave data suggest
that the small area of low pressure located well southwest of the
Baja California peninsula has become better organized. Satellite
classifications from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T2.0/30 kt, and
thus the system is being upgraded to Tropical Depression Sixteen-E
at this time.

The best guess on the initial motion is 340/11. The depression is
forecast to continue north-northwestward or northward with a
significant decrease in forward speed during the next 24 hours as
it moves along the western periphery of a weak mid-level ridge.
After that time, the cyclone should turn generally eastward with an
increase in forward speed while it gradually becomes assimilated
into the larger circulation of Tropical Storm Odile to the east. A
motion south of east is even possible prior to dissipation. The NHC
forecast track is on the left side of the guidance envelope but not
too far from the multi-model consensus TVCN.

While the depression could strengthen a little and become a
tropical storm in the short term, opposing low- and upper-level
flow should create a hostile shearing environment beyond 24 hours
or so. Global models show the depression losing its identity in
2-3 days, but the official forecast will assume that the system
remains a coherent feature through at least day 3. The NHC
intensity forecast is slightly above the multi-model consensus out
to 24 hours and near it beyond that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1530Z 16.1N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 16.7N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 17.3N 118.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 17.1N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 16.3N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 14.5N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Hurricanehink]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/16E.html - Dvorak numbers up to 2.5

[WeatherGuesser]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1530Z 16.1N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 16.7N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 17.3N 118.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 17.1N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 16.3N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 14.5N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Aww C'mon, we can't break the H train now.

[supercane4867]

Floaters are finally updating

[galaxy401]

This storm must not be named if we want that hurricane streak to continue!