Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[Hammy]

JB has hope for next 3 years!!

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 6h

Downturn of total number of storms not the end of the burst. Wildfires, Increase Atlantic activity, hotter summers coming 2015-2017

Concerning the Atlantic activity, I have no doubt he'll be correct on this one, especially if we do an El Nino to La Nina flip next summer.

[WPBWeather]

First time RED this year.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.png

[TheStormExpert]

First time RED this year.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.png

I'm pretty sure it's not, though I could always be wrong.

[WPBWeather]

First time RED this year.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.png

I'm pretty sure it's not, though I could always be wrong.

You are VERY WRONG. It is the first time red this year. You can bookmark the site to get some data that may help you sometime.

[tolakram]

First time RED this year.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.png

I'm pretty sure it's not, though I could always be wrong.

You are VERY WRONG. It is the first time red this year. You can bookmark the site to get some data that may help you sometime.

Lets keep the discussion friendly and respectful please, no need to yell.

Is there a link to the archives for these images somewhere?

[WPBWeather]

[

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.png[/quote]
I'm pretty sure it's not, though I could always be wrong.[/quote]

You are VERY WRONG. It is the first time red this year. You can bookmark the site to get some data that may help you sometime.[/quote]

Lets keep the discussion friendly and respectful please, no need to yell.

Is there a link to the archives for these images somewhere?[/quote]

Amazingly, it just so happens there is an archive:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... s/ARCHIVE/

[Steve]

I don't necessarily disagree with Joe B's ideas for near term climate impacts. I trust his analysts on the upcoming winter, as he's pretty sure he has that nailed down. I don't subscribe to his pay site, so I'm not sure what specific details he is mentioning for hot summers 15-17, if maybe he is basing that on shorter term patterns such as ENSO or if he is looking at more decadal+ patterns or combinations. I'm assuming at some level a combination of +amo, pdo and neutral-to-la Nina conditions being most prevalent after the coming el niño fades.

But there is no doubt he isn't going to call for the burst to end. He still needs his later cycle east coast landfall years to coincide with some of those 20th Century seasons he has been hyping for over 10 years. He always said we would see that before the Atlantic went back into a cooling phase. I guess we can evaluate that over the next 5-15 years or so. If he is right, we are potentially in for Sandy/Katrina level impacts on the Seaboard and in New England.

As for the topic at hand, I think what I have in this thread will turn out mostly right when the season is over. Slow? Yeah. But barring some crazy super niño event or a massive volcanic eruption, neither of which is very likely (but you never know for sure) there will be action, threats and/or landfalls in the Western Basin. That can pretty much be taken to the bank. I still think the Western Atlatic is the real hotspot (3 out of 4 named storms so far), but I might have been a little light on the Gulf potential. I was thinking 2 named storms, but I wouldn't completely rule out 3. There have been tropical surges, just nothing tropically organized at the surface so far outside of Dolly. We have about 6-7 weeks to see where we are and whose ideas were good. Good or bad, I'll be tough on myself point by point from what I have in this thread.

[Ptarmigan]

Not really sure why people seem to be wishing for a hard winter on this thread.

OFF TOPIC: Maybe not back east, but if California doesn't have a hard winter, say hello to economic depression. California is in a horrific drought state of emergency....It's absolutely HORRIBLE here... Everything is dead, dried, absolutely disgusting, which is why when I hear someone in California say that they hate the rain, it makes me absolutely sick.......They should have their water turned off..I know that sounds brutal, but that's how I feel..

Droughts are very bad and California is no exception. Droughts are way more dangerous than hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods combined as they affect a large area compared to a hurricane.

Anyways, I am not writing off this hurricane season until November 30, 2014.

[WPBWeather]

Anyways, I am not writing off this hurricane season until November 30, 2014.[/quote]


That sounds like great advice to me! Hopefully some other bloggers here agree too.

[Hammy]

Climate outlook was only shaded solid red twice before during this season, and both times produced hurricanes (Bertha and Cristobal)

[WPBWeather]

Climate outlook was only shaded solid red twice before during this season, and both times produced hurricanes (Bertha and Cristobal)

I stand corrected! I missed those times

[Hammy]

Climate outlook was only shaded solid red twice before during this season, and both times produced hurricanes (Bertha and Cristobal)

I stand corrected! I missed those times

Your point does stand though that the only time they've been shown red, something has in fact developed.

[Cyclenall]

JB has hope for next 3 years!!

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 6h

Downturn of total number of storms not the end of the burst. Wildfires, Increase Atlantic activity, hotter summers coming 2015-2017

About the hotter summers part, it has to be or my #1 passion will start to fade fast like during 2000-2003.

Anyways, I am not writing off this hurricane season until November 30, 2014.

That sounds like great advice to me! Hopefully some other bloggers here agree too.

I don't agree.

I saw some more news stories about how inactive the Atlantic is, something about the least amount of storms since 1992 in the Caribbean or something? I don't know the exact stat in question but there are plenty!

[somethingfunny]

I'm not sure why I just caught myself up on the last four pages of this thread.

Some thoughts:

Hammy said a bunch of things I would have said. Complete agreement here, you always make great posts. 3 hurricanes is less boring than 2 hurricanes. Additionally, we already knew 2014 would be slow. When Arthur formed, I knew there was a very good chance that it would be the highlight of the season. It probably was, I hope everybody remembered to savor it.

90L, 91L, and 92L would all likely be named storms (probably hurricanes) by now if they werent so starved for moisture, but this season has been very dry outside of the temporary MJO/CCKW pulses and I think expecting anything outside of those pulses is as silly as expecting something in April.

The CCKW (we use a lot of technical acronyms, in layman's terms it's a region of rising air and increased moisture) is coming back to the Western Atlantic and it should produce a lot of potential development candidates, and a few of them ought to spin up into named storms before the CCKW moves away toward the east. This will be our last real shot until it likely returns in October.

"Just wait until peak season" is actually very sound advice. Even 2013 had its' lone two hurricanes around this timeframe. Same with 1997 2006 and 2009. We will have a hurricane or two in September.

I'm not so sure that 2015 will be any busier, because El Niño could persist into that summer. 2016 will be busy for sure though. The active period is interrupted, but not over. I'm estimating 50% another slow season, 25% average and 25% above average for 2015, because El Niño could either be dominant, or lift out in such a way that it puts the Atlantic into an unexpected hypermode for a relatively brief time period like the 2004 El Niño did, or it could just go La Niña and produce an extended bunch of activity.

For that matter I think the slowness of slow periods is overexaggerated. The last slow period (70s, 80s) had a BUNCH of major hurricane landfalls despite being bookended by slow seasons.

[NDG]

I am thinking next year will be busier than this year, if and only if moisture increases along the MDR.
Even if El Nino lingers until Spring or early summer and goes into neutral conditions that would be better UL conditions for 2015's peak season, IMO.

[ConvergenceZone]

I am thinking next year will be busier than this year, if and only if moisture increases along the MDR.
Even if El Nino lingers until Spring or early summer and goes into neutral conditions that would be better UL conditions for 2015's peak season, IMO.

Yea, I think next year HAS to be busier than this year.....I don't see how it would be possible to bee less busier(as far as named storms are concerned that is)..

[WeatherGuesser]

Yeah, it wouldn't take much to be busier than this year has been so far.

[Ntxw]

We need ACE points. Names is not what we are looking for, a season is re-evaluated and ranked by total ACE. We need several long tracking fish majors. Its unbelievable how slow ACE has been, 2013/2014 combo is currently sitting at 2nd lowest of the slow duos behind 1982/1983. 1993/1994 is third.

[WeatherGuesser]

^^ Let's go for #1!!

[Hammy]

We need ACE points. Names is not what we are looking for, a season is re-evaluated and ranked by total ACE. We need several long tracking fish majors. Its unbelievable how slow ACE has been, 2013/2014 combo is currently sitting at 2nd lowest of the slow duos behind 1982/1983. 1993/1994 is third.

To be fair, even if this year were to somehow end up slightly above average, because how how poor last year was, it would still be one of the lowest two year periods.