ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[floridasun78]

could get to td may be strong ts but hurr that be hard with only less 48 hour landfall _________________
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[Kohlecane]

Really kind of mad that our local Met. In Jacksonville mentioned this in 10 seconds by saying this tropical wave poses no threat to FL....... REALLY.. almost about to write a review to them

[blp]

Pressures are still high in the Bahamas, lowest I found was 29.96 at the Abacos and that was four hours old so take it for FWIW.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Really kind of mad that our local Met. In Jacksonville mentioned this in 10 seconds by saying this tropical wave poses no threat to FL....... REALLY.. almost about to write a review to them

It's unlikely this will affect Jacksonville and being a met in a local Jacksonville channel, he/she's speaking specifically to the Northeastern Florida area and it would be wrong to say it's a threat and cause unnecessary hype. Now if that was a met saying it's not a threat down in southern or central florida it would be a different story.

[blp]

Marsh Harbour showing West winds now:

http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/BS/Marsh_Harbour.html

[blp]

Here is better view of the earlier ASCAT pass. I am quite convinced that something is brewing at the surface now around Great Abaco and looks to be closed though pressure is still high.

[StormingB81]

My Local met said Friday And Sat 40% chance of rain but depending on disturbance in the Bahamas there could be BIG changes depending what happens

[blp]

Take a look at this. This is not a local effect or bogus reading. Last 1/2hr of readings.

Marsh Habour
2014-09-11 00:02:00,78.1,75.9,32.51,NW,309,6.0,9.0,93,0.00,,,0.00,meteohub,2014-09-11 04:02:00,
2014-09-11 00:07:00,78.1,75.9,32.51,West,279,4.0,9.0,93,0.00,,,0.00,meteohub,2014-09-11 04:07:00,
2014-09-11 00:12:00,77.9,76.1,32.51,WSW,249,4.0,9.0,94,0.00,,,0.00,meteohub,2014-09-11 04:12:00,
2014-09-11 00:17:00,77.7,75.9,32.51,WSW,238,3.0,9.0,94,0.00,,,0.00,meteohub,2014-09-11 04:17:00,
2014-09-11 00:22:00,77.5,75.9,32.51,WSW,256,4.0,8.0,95,0.00,,,0.00,meteohub,2014-09-11 04:22:00,

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

This so called storm or invest is so small that you really have to be doom casting to say this thing is firing up convection. I am not accusing someone just saying. This thing has about as much convection firing up as a hot summer day in North Carolina. A few clouds nothing more to note. Move on people.

[lester]

This so called storm or invest is so small that you really have to be doom casting to say this thing is firing up convection. I am not accusing someone just saying. This thing has about as much convection firing up as a hot summer day in North Carolina. A few clouds nothing more to note. Move on people.

It is firing up convection. You're generalizing everyone as doomcasters by saying that.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

The thing though is so small I FEEL as if I could take a boat right through it and not even know it was much more than some clouds. I know some potential is there but this thing is lacking any decent amount of convection. I do not generalize and I apologize if anyone takes offense.

[Hammy]

This so called storm or invest is so small that you really have to be doom casting to say this thing is firing up convection. I am not accusing someone just saying. This thing has about as much convection firing up as a hot summer day in North Carolina. A few clouds nothing more to note. Move on people.

The entire point of this forum is to discuss tropical systems, not "move on" when one or two people disagrees. There is convection being generated due to a low pressure, and thus low level vorticity, and this is officially designated an invest and does have somewhat of a shot of developing given the outflow aloft and warm waters

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

The potential is there but this thing is not taking advantage of it. A small amount of convection and some spin does not make this thing a threat. Now I could be wrong and this thing could ramp up but this season has been dismal for tropical development in the Atlantic now the Pacific is ANOTHER STORY.

[blp]

Here is a newer pass from 10:30pm. Looks to be still somewhat broad on the southwest part but not bad at all. But, I think it is closed based on the recent local observations. I have seen much worse get classified.

[bahamaswx]

The thing though is so small I FEEL as if I could take a boat right through it and not even know it was much more than some clouds. I know some potential is there but this thing is lacking any decent amount of convection. I do not generalize and I apologize if anyone takes offense.

I can assure you that you would not want to drive a boat through it.

[Hammy]

The potential is there but this thing is not taking advantage of it. A small amount of convection and some spin does not make this thing a threat. Now I could be wrong and this thing could ramp up but this season has been dismal for tropical development in the Atlantic now the Pacific is ANOTHER STORY.

Wouldn't call three hurricanes dismal personally.

As for coverage area, size and satellite appearance aren't everything.

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc08/ATL/13L.MARCO/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20081006.1815.goes12.x.vis1km_high.13LTHIRTEEN.30kts-1007mb-189N-937W.100pc.jpg
http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc08/ATL/13L.MARCO/tc_ssmis/pct/20081006.1343.f16.x.pct.13LTHIRTEEN.30kts-1007mb-189N-937W.64pc.jpg

[blp]

More moderate convection coming up right over LLC on last image.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

The thing though is so small I FEEL as if I could take a boat right through it and not even know it was much more than some clouds. I know some potential is there but this thing is lacking any decent amount of convection. I do not generalize and I apologize if anyone takes offense.

I can assure you that you would not want to drive a boat through it.

Do we have a bet? If I snap a shot inside it will I get some sort of prize? lol I will go get your recon for you guys.

Size to me personally is EVERYTHING. Any storm of significance I remember was relatively large or at least twice the size of this "invest".

[Evil Jeremy]

Size to me personally is EVERYTHING. Any storm of significance I remember was relatively large or at least twice the size of this "invest".

Broaden your view. We have a closed (or nearly closed) surface circulation, and persisting convection in the NW quad. Writing this off just because it's not big enough for your liking isn't a legitimate reason.

[blp]

The thing though is so small I FEEL as if I could take a boat right through it and not even know it was much more than some clouds. I know some potential is there but this thing is lacking any decent amount of convection. I do not generalize and I apologize if anyone takes offense.

I can assure you that you would not want to drive a boat through it.

Do we have a bet? If I snap a shot inside it will I get some sort of prize? lol I will go get your recon for you guys.

Size to me personally is EVERYTHING. Any storm of significance I remember was relatively large or at least twice the size of this "invest".

Size has nothing to do with significance of storm. Look up Andrew 1992, Florida Keys 1935 which were two of the strongest storms to ever touch land anywhere in the Atlantic and they had an eye that was less than 10 miles wide and total storm width of less than 40 miles.