ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Looking at the long range radar it appears to be a little west of where you have it NDG.

[tolakram]

live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-78&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

[tolakram]

saved blurry radar loop

[NDG]

Looking at the long range radar it appears to be a little west of where you have it NDG.

But visible satellite loop and surface reports from the northern Bahamas show that it is further east than what the radar shows, at that distance radar is catching rainfall further up into the atmosphere and not as close to the surface as the short range.

[NDG]

Strong mid to upper level winds from the NE now reaching central FL.

[weatherfanatic]

Man, I was hoping to see a better organized storm this morning. Looks like that dry air is getting in there as stated. Sgetti has it all over the place, so IMO maybe in 5 days or so we may have to watch it for more significant development but for now doesn't look like it can do much. Will we get anything exciting to watch this year other than Arthur, yes we had other storms but that was the only one that was a threat and did hit land. I agree after reading the talk last night, size does not matter at all, if you have a LLC and high winds like Andrew destruction is just as bad as with a big storm just not as widespread. Living in NY I went through Sandy and I have never been in such a big widespread damage zone in my life, I was also in gloria and Bob which did damage but I do not remember them like I do Sandy. Lets see if this thing can get far snough south and start firing again today! Don't give up my tropical enthusiests!

[wxman57]

Looking at the long range radar it appears to be a little west of where you have it NDG.

But visible satellite loop and surface reports from the northern Bahamas show that it is further east than what the radar shows, at that distance radar is catching rainfall further up into the atmosphere and not as close to the surface as the short range.

Good observation. I put it around 27.7N / 77.4W - well east of the radar (mid-level) center. It's an indication that it's now being hit by increasing NE-ENE shear. Development still looks unlikely, but it will bring rain to Florida over the next 36 hours. Conditions in the Gulf do not look favorable for development.

[gatorcane]

Here is a good floater:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[jlauderdal]

[gatorcane]

Looking at the long range radar it appears to be a little west of where you have it NDG.

But visible satellite loop and surface reports from the northern Bahamas show that it is further east than what the radar shows, at that distance radar is catching rainfall further up into the atmosphere and not as close to the surface as the short range.

Good observation. I put it around 27.7N / 77.4W - well east of the radar (mid-level) center. It's an indication that it's now being hit by increasing NE-ENE shear. Development still looks unlikely, but it will bring rain to Florida over the next 36 hours. Conditions in the Gulf do not look favorable for development.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/92La.JPG

Wxman, love the detailed graphic thanks. I see the llc where you have it too. I don't see the ENE/NE shear hitting it yet though. Still seems to be at the North-Central Florida latitude a couple of hundred miles to the north or so...it almost seems like there is some west shear at the South Florida latitude hitting the system.

[ronjon]

Funny how this system seems to build convection during the day and dissipate it at night.

[Stormcenter]

All I have to say it's Sept. so beware of anything that's in the GOM during that tiime if in fact it makes in there. IMO

[tropicwatch]

Well the convection continues to build and expand this morning albeit to the west and south so far.

[gatorcane]

Funny how this system seems to build convection during the day and dissipate it at night.

Yeah very interesting. It's on an increasing convection trend again. Actually looks a little more organized the past several hours. If that ENE/NE shear stays just to the north, then we may see some organization. Water temps are around 85F where it is heading. My take on the 00Z ECMWF is that it has delayed the onset of this shear some as it shows a closed low (doesn't look sheared) 24 hours from 00Z. The ECMWF also barely moves it in 24 hours.

[Ntxw]

Wxman, love the detailed graphic thanks. I see the llc where you have it too. I don't see the ENE/NE shear hitting it yet though. Still seems to be at the North-Central Florida latitude a couple of hundred miles to the north or so...it almost seems like there is some west shear at the South Florida latitude hitting the system.

Well the llc (or what is of it) is away from the best convection which is to the w/sw, product of ENE shear due to the strengthening SE ridge. Convection is going further away from the shear.

[Weatherboy1]

Well, as I said yesterday, I didn't expect much from 92 given the limited window for strengthening before it moves into the FL east coast - and I probably should've thrown in the mention of increasing shear. At most, I see a minimal TS here ... if that. Certainly not like Jeanne moving onto my doorstep from roughly same area in 2004!

As always, just my opinion, listen to the experts, etc. ...

[wzrgirl1]

Well you all may not expect anything but I just got an update from Max Mayfield that they were upgrading to TD 6 @ 11:00

[tropicwatch]

TD 6 was 91L

[wzrgirl1]

The thread should be changed as soon as advisories come out.

[wzrgirl1]

:uarrow: TD 6 was 91L

No it is 92L.