ATL: EDOUARD - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

Circulation looked better defined on the first ASCAT last night, there's now a very large area of light winds to the south which tells me this likely peaked overnight (prior to upgrade) and is already weakening.

[OuterBanker]

Now TD6

[OuterBanker]

Crank up the ace with no threat to anyone. Fish food for sure.

[AnnularCane]

Why is this still being called 91L?

[Hammy]

Why is this still being called 91L?

Yeah, I just noticed too that the topic hasn't changed...

[AnnularCane]

Poor TD6 is being completely ignored.

[Hammy]

Sort of ironic that this thread was more active prior to upgrade.

[galaxy401]

Sort of ironic that this thread was more active prior to upgrade.

Which is interesting since it sounds like we might have a long tracking fish hurricane here.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

NASA Global Hawk en route:
http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/

From NHC Plan of the Day:

Code: Select all

       A. THE GLOBAL HAWK NASA 872 WILL INVEST THE ATLANTIC
          TROPICAL WAVE 91L. TAKEOFF TIME FROM KWAL 11/2200Z.
          SONDES 65. 55,000 TO 62,000 FT. LAWNMOWER PATTERN
          IN REGION BOUNDED BY:
          A. 22.0N 45.0W
          B. 13.5N 45.0W
          C. 13.5N 36.5W
          D. 22.0N 36.5W

NASA HS3 mission:
https://espo.nasa.gov/missions/hs3

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

AL, 06, 2014091200, , BEST, 0, 170N, 389W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EDOUARD, M,

[floridasun78]

we have EDOUARD far far alway fishing

[Nimbus]

Odile in the Pacific has a higher forecast strength, TD 6 is less of a challenge since its headed for the cold north Atlantic.

[gatorcane]

Any idea what this blob just SE of TD #6 is tracking west?

[HurricaneBelle]

Say hello to Edouard:

WTNT31 KNHC 120231
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 PM AST THU SEP 11 2014

...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 39.4W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[caribsue]

[quote="gatorcane"]Any idea what this blob just SE of TD #6 is tracking west?

Was just looking at that too and wondering the same thing

[caribsue]

Any idea what this blob just SE of TD #6 is tracking west?

[Hammy]

Going to stick to my forecast of weakening as per the Euro, it's already getting the upside-down teardrop shape to the wind pattern (seen on ascat) and wouldn't be surprised to see this open up in about 3-4 days. I highly doubt this will actually make hurricane strength, maybe 50-60 mph tops.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Going to stick to my forecast of weakening as per the Euro, it's already getting the upside-down teardrop shape to the wind pattern (seen on ascat) and wouldn't be surprised to see this open up in about 3-4 days. I highly doubt this will actually make hurricane strength, maybe 50-60 mph tops.

The ECMWF doesn't strengthen it simply because the ECMWF never develops it. The 12z run initialized with one closed 1010mb isobar, which isn't the case here.

[djones65]

I personally see a quite favorable upper level pattern and expect Edouard to strengthen significantly! Hammy I think your reliance upon Euro for intensity will bust! Edouard will definitely become a hurricane possibly a major in my humble opinion!

[hurricanehunter69]

would definitely bet on a hurricane here. 2014 batting .800