ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Hammy]

If this organizes enough, are there enough land stations and buoys that they would upgrade without recon?

[NDG]

Lots of rain moving towards SE FL.

[tropicwatch]

Vorticity appears to on the increase and not so elongated.

[Nimbus]

There is some slightly moister air moving in from the northeast.
I would have liked to see what recon would have found for surface pressures.
Could enven make TS status before 1st landfall if it overcomes the dry air.

[NDG]

If this organizes enough, are there enough land stations and buoys that they would upgrade without recon?

Yes, and so far I don't even see surface reports of winds above 25 mph.

[gatorcane]

Convection really starting to get going again...lastest blowup is more circular in appearance:

[poof121]

LLC still seems off the the northeast. From the CIMSS vorticity plots, 700 mb/mid-level vorticity seems to be increasing. I would think it's best shot is to ditch the old LLC and mix a new one under this convection down to the surface.

[jhpigott]

Convection really starting to get going again...lastest blowup is more circular in appearance:

low and mid level circulations look to be dislocated. There is an apparent radar mid-level circ near West End, but the low level is just north of the Abacos - this latest blow up of convection looks to be in between the low and mid-level circ . . . interesting

[NDG]

Some panoramic vies from Web cams along the SE FL coast.

[gatorcane]

Another look at the burst of convection north of Grand Bahama:

[gatorcane]

Also the invest doesn't seem to be moving much at all. Maybe a slow drift west. It's interesting to note the ECMWF doesn't move it that much the next 24 hours.

[NDG]

It looks like 92L started finally moving some, westward if not a slight SW drift.

[jlauderdal]

Also the invest doesn't seem to be moving much at all. Maybe a slow drift west. It's interesting to note the ECMWF doesn't move it that much the next 24 hours.

there is a cell just to your north..coming right down the coast, you first then me..looks like its all building to the west but its been real slow...heavy rain producer if the convection can maintain itself

we had the noname storm about 15 years ago that was a monster rain producer

[jlauderdal]

[NDG]

Where I think the weak LLC is, it is half exposed, might be getting tugged a little closer to the deep convection to its SW as I type this.

[Hammy]

Also the invest doesn't seem to be moving much at all. Maybe a slow drift west. It's interesting to note the ECMWF doesn't move it that much the next 24 hours.

there is a cell just to your north..coming right down the coast, you first then me..looks like its all building to the west but its been real slow...heavy rain producer if the convection can maintain itself

we had the noname storm about 15 years ago that was a monster rain producer

Was that the Leslie precursor system in 2000?

[jlauderdal]

Also the invest doesn't seem to be moving much at all. Maybe a slow drift west. It's interesting to note the ECMWF doesn't move it that much the next 24 hours.

there is a cell just to your north..coming right down the coast, you first then me..looks like its all building to the west but its been real slow...heavy rain producer if the convection can maintain itself

we had the noname storm about 15 years ago that was a monster rain producer

Was that the Leslie precursor system in 2000?

that sounds right...i remember a kid went onto flood waters that had a live wire and several more followed him going for the rescue and they were all electrocuted

thats why i think its foolish that the media insists on putting on waders and going into flood waters, sets a horrible example and provides almost no value, we know the water is high and they dont need to stand in it as reference

[Bocadude85]

Also the invest doesn't seem to be moving much at all. Maybe a slow drift west. It's interesting to note the ECMWF doesn't move it that much the next 24 hours.

Last nights Euro also showed a closed low at 24 hours.

[Blown Away]

Also the invest doesn't seem to be moving much at all. Maybe a slow drift west. It's interesting to note the ECMWF doesn't move it that much the next 24 hours.

Last nights Euro also showed a closed low at 24 hours.

The Low is tagged and predicted not to move much in next 24 hours. Slight WSW drift from current position.

[Weatherboy1]

Yes, the firing up of convection is clearly more vigorous today. But it is still not co-located with the center of the low based on visible satellite. Light rain now falling here in west Jupiter, but no wind really at all. Unless this system really stalls/slows and/or the convection can blow up right over the center, I don't think we're talking about more than a TD or low-end TS ... at least until this thing gets into the Gulf as most models suggest.

Just my opinion, listen to the experts, etc.