ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

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Bocadude85
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Re:

#301 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Sep 11, 2014 11:39 am

Weatherboy1 wrote:Yes, the firing up of convection is clearly more vigorous today. But it is still not co-located with the center of the low based on visible satellite. Light rain now falling here in west Jupiter, but no wind really at all. Unless this system really stalls/slows and/or the convection can blow up right over the center, I don't think we're talking about more than a TD or low-end TS ... at least until this thing gets into the Gulf as most models suggest.

Just my opinion, listen to the experts, etc.


I agree. I would take a low end TS, it has been awhile since we have had some action around here.
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#302 Postby Weatherboy1 » Thu Sep 11, 2014 11:46 am

Incidentally, wind speed is finally picking up a bit at the Settlement Point station (west tip of Grand Bahamas island). But still only talking 15-20 mph, and pressure isn't falling noticeably. This is the one to watch to see if anything more comes out of this system though.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1
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Re:

#303 Postby poof121 » Thu Sep 11, 2014 11:50 am

Weatherboy1 wrote:Incidentally, wind speed is finally picking up a bit at the Settlement Point station (west tip of Grand Bahamas island). But still only talking 15-20 mph, and pressure isn't falling noticeably. This is the one to watch to see if anything more comes out of this system though.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1


The wind shifting from N-NNW-NW-WNW is telling too. Looks like the LLC is trying to get under the convection.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#304 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 11, 2014 11:51 am

Image
JB thinks it may be a TD...
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#305 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Sep 11, 2014 11:56 am

Quite the expansion in the last few frames.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&CCA=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East&SSC=South-x-x&PRODUCT=vis_ir_background&SUB_PRODUCT=goes&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Thumb&PATH=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/South-x-x/vis_ir_background/goes&&buttonPressed=Animate&ANIM_TYPE=Instant
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#306 Postby HeeBGBz » Thu Sep 11, 2014 12:01 pm

I wonder whether 92L or TD6 gets named first? If it enters the GOM, I will be more worried if I'm facing Fay rather than Edouard.
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#307 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 11, 2014 12:06 pm

I would have to agree with JB that this may in fact be very close at least to a TD at the moment if not there already, pending wind obs, as the shear is creating a divergent pattern which is allowing a good deal of convection to form near the circulation.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#308 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 11, 2014 12:10 pm

Blown Away wrote:Image
JB thinks it may be a TD...
they should scramble a plane out there before it dies off again.. :D
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#309 Postby SeGaBob » Thu Sep 11, 2014 12:11 pm

If this continues everyone is going to be wishing they flew the plane today... :)
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Re:

#310 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 11, 2014 12:12 pm

Weatherboy1 wrote:Incidentally, wind speed is finally picking up a bit at the Settlement Point station (west tip of Grand Bahamas island). But still only talking 15-20 mph, and pressure isn't falling noticeably. This is the one to watch to see if anything more comes out of this system though.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1


Wind is on the increase some. Pressure dropping but that is not unexpected for this time of day...

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Sep 11, 2014 12:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#311 Postby ronjon » Thu Sep 11, 2014 12:13 pm



Even though conditions are marginal with NE shear impinging on 92L, you can't underestimate the heat content of the Gulf Stream. I've seen many storms deepen in this part of the world. Looks as though either the LLC is moving west or being drawn under the deep convection.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#312 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Sep 11, 2014 12:18 pm

This storm is giving me a headache, and I can't imagine the forecasters in Miami are happy either. There is defiantly a LLC, and I've seen TDs with less convection. Anyone care to guess what the 2pm TWO will say?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#313 Postby Nimbus » Thu Sep 11, 2014 12:21 pm

At the station off Canaveral north of the system the dewpoint is 75.6 °F at about 80% humidity.

latest is 75.9 dewpoint with 83 degrees ambient so closer to 84 % humidity
The station reported winds 17.5 to 19.5 knots swinging around from 51 degrees to 35 degrees.
That is a sign inflow is picking up and it is getting some marginal energy content.
Actually for the area its more like an October reading considering the 85 degree SST.
Last edited by Nimbus on Thu Sep 11, 2014 12:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#314 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 11, 2014 12:22 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:This storm is giving me a headache, and I can't imagine the forecasters in Miami are happy either. There is defiantly a LLC, and I've seen TDs with less convection. Anyone care to guess what the 2pm TWO will say?


Both the ECMWF and NAVGEM models close it off by 24 hours off the SE Coast of Florida. So some models have trended more toward development, even if it is weak development. These models were not showing this yesterday. Quite a headache for forecasters!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#315 Postby SeGaBob » Thu Sep 11, 2014 12:23 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:This storm is giving me a headache, and I can't imagine the forecasters in Miami are happy either. There is defiantly a LLC, and I've seen TDs with less convection. Anyone care to guess what the 2pm TWO will say?


I'm guessing they'll up it to 30/50% and note the recent increase in thunderstorm activity.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#316 Postby Weatherboy1 » Thu Sep 11, 2014 12:24 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:This storm is giving me a headache, and I can't imagine the forecasters in Miami are happy either. There is defiantly a LLC, and I've seen TDs with less convection. Anyone care to guess what the 2pm TWO will say?


I wouldn't be surprised if they increased the development potential to 50% or even 60%. It definitely has gotten its act together more today. But I'd need to see more aggressive convection firing up right over the center before going any higher than that.

Just my opinion, listen to the experts, etc. etc.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#317 Postby blp » Thu Sep 11, 2014 12:25 pm

I am just getting in now so don't know if anyone posted but finally we have a floater on this... :lol:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#318 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 11, 2014 12:27 pm

Yeah I agree with some of you, it looks like a TD, it is fighting the shear, at least for now with the LLC very close to the deep convection, IMO it qualifies to be a TD.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#319 Postby N2FSU » Thu Sep 11, 2014 12:27 pm

blp wrote:I am just getting in now so don't know if anyone posted but finally we have a floater on this... :lol:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif


Thanks for the heads up. I've been checking constantly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#320 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 11, 2014 12:28 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:This storm is giving me a headache, and I can't imagine the forecasters in Miami are happy either. There is defiantly a LLC, and I've seen TDs with less convection. Anyone care to guess what the 2pm TWO will say?

50%
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