ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Someone forget to tell JB what day this is?
I'll wait for recon to find a TS or not.

plane was cancel

Bad call, makes no sense considering how close it is to land. They are really trying to save up that money.

System slowed down so the 24 hr landfall window gets pushed out.
Pattern has been convection in the morning until the inflow goes dry then poof till tomorrow two days in a row.

Be a real bad time for 92l to work the moisture out but we should know by sunset.

[NDG]

Clear circulation showing up on Miami long range radar.

From the Miami radar you are looking at the mid level circulation which is to the west of the LLC, too far away to be clearly caught by the long range Miami radar.

[cigtyme]

Foolish post need to stop. This may be one of them, but if 92L gives anyone a bad day your post is assinine!

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Anyone more worried about the Gulf of Mexico being more of a hot spot for this thing? What would stop it from developing once it crosses Florida?

[SeGaBob]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&CCA=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East&SSC=South-x-x&PRODUCT=vis_ir_background&SUB_PRODUCT=goes&AGE=prev&SIZE=Full&PATH=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/South-x-x/vis_ir_background/goes&ARROW=next&ANIM_TYPE=Instant&DISPLAY=Single&CURRENT=20140910.1230.goes_13.visir.bckgr.NorthAmerica-CONUS-East_South-x-x.DAY.jpg&

Becoming more Exposed that shear is taking that top r QD

It doesn't appear to be becoming anymore exposed to me...yet

[gatorcane]

Settlement point in Grand Bahama has seen a 0.04 MB pressure drop in the past hour....

[Riptide]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&CCA=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East&SSC=South-x-x&PRODUCT=vis_ir_background&SUB_PRODUCT=goes&AGE=prev&SIZE=Full&PATH=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/South-x-x/vis_ir_background/goes&ARROW=next&ANIM_TYPE=Instant&DISPLAY=Single&CURRENT=20140910.1230.goes_13.visir.bckgr.NorthAmerica-CONUS-East_South-x-x.DAY.jpg&

Becoming more Exposed that shear is taking that top r QD

It doesn't appear to be becoming anymore exposed to me...yet

The latent energy uptake from the gulf stream should allow this one to reach TD before landfall. I don't really understand the logic here, persistent convection has been on-going for some time. It is like it just outside of some strict categorization even tho there is an LLC. For all intents and purposes, it is a TC.

Development chances should be at least 50/50.

[jlauderdal]

Anyone more worried about the Gulf of Mexico being more of a hot spot for this thing? What would stop it from developing once it crosses Florida?

that monster cold front that is poised to be waiting might hinder development

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Anyone more worried about the Gulf of Mexico being more of a hot spot for this thing? What would stop it from developing once it crosses Florida?

that monster cold front that is poised to be waiting might hinder development

What exactly does that mean for the storm? Will the front bring shear?

[jlauderdal]

Foolish post need to stop. This may be one of them, but if 92L gives anyone a bad day your post is assinine!

fortunately the consensus is that 92L wont be giving anyone a bad day...will be on alert though just in case...it might frustrate some people but a bad day is unlikely..stay safe, 6 weeks to go

[srainhoutx]

that monster cold front that is poised to be waiting might hinder development

That so called 'monster cold front' is expected to be much less of an issue now across the NW Gulf. In fact, it may struggle to even make to Coastal Texas/Louisiana since most of the upper level support has shifted E.

[davidiowx]

that monster cold front that is poised to be waiting might hinder development

That so called 'monster cold front' is expected to be much less of an issue now across the NW Gulf. In fact, it may struggle to even make to Coastal Texas/Louisiana since most of the upper level support has shifted E.

Was just about to post that. This may be heading due westward into land as soon as it emerges into the GOM.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Foolish post need to stop. This may be one of them, but if 92L gives anyone a bad day your post is assinine!

fortunately the consensus is that 92L wont be giving anyone a bad day...will be on alert though just in case...it might frustrate some people but a bad day is unlikely..stay safe, 6 weeks to go

I think it will not in south Florida but the Gulf of Mexico seems like a hot bed right now for TC development.

[NDG]

Anyone more worried about the Gulf of Mexico being more of a hot spot for this thing? What would stop it from developing once it crosses Florida?

that monster cold front that is poised to be waiting might hinder development

Cold front coming down the plains is not going to reach the GOM, secondly the Upper Level westerlies is not going to reach the GOM, what is creating the shear is the UL winds in between the UL ridge in the SE US and all of the ULLs near the greater Antilles to the SW GOM, nothing to do with the "monster cold front" you guys keep talking about.

[SeGaBob]

It's a good thing conditions in the gulf are not ideal or this could really ramp up with it's small size.

[weatherfanatic]

2pm NHC updated upped 5 day a little, suggesting the GOM might happen. MIGHT.

Shower activity associated with a low pressure area near the
northwestern Bahamas has become more concentrated today, and the
circulation of the low has become a little better defined. Some
additional development could occur before upper-level winds become
less conducive tonight. The low is expected to move generally
westward across the southern Florida Peninsula into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico during the next couple of days. Regardless of
development, this low will bring locally heavy rains to portions of
southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[jlauderdal]

Anyone more worried about the Gulf of Mexico being more of a hot spot for this thing? What would stop it from developing once it crosses Florida?

that monster cold front that is poised to be waiting might hinder development

Cold front coming down the plains is not going to reach the GOM, secondly the Upper Level westerlies is not going to reach the GOM, what is creating the shear is the UL winds in between the UL ridge in the SE US and all of the ULLs near the greater Antilles to the SW GOM, nothing to do with the "monster cold front" you guys keep talking about.

so what you think will happen when this energy reaches the gulf?

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Here is a link for everyone I received yesterday on this form for satellite images.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&CCA=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East&SSC=South-x-x&AGE=prev&SIZE=Full&PRODUCT=vis_images&SUB_PRODUCT=goes&PATH=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/South-x-x/vis_images/goes&&buttonPressed=Animate&ANIM_TYPE=Instant

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Foolish post need to stop. This may be one of them, but if 92L gives anyone a bad day your post is assinine!

I totally agree lately on this board there are so many wasted post, that do not provide any real substance but stupid jokes.

[SeGaBob]

2pm NHC updated upped 5 day a little, suggesting the GOM might happen. MIGHT.

Shower activity associated with a low pressure area near the
northwestern Bahamas has become more concentrated today, and the
circulation of the low has become a little better defined. Some
additional development could occur before upper-level winds become
less conducive tonight. The low is expected to move generally
westward across the southern Florida Peninsula into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico during the next couple of days. Regardless of
development, this low will bring locally heavy rains to portions of
southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Only the 2 day chances were raised... 5 day has been at 30% for a while now.