ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Here come the warnings:

Special Marine Warning
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ552-555-572-575-112200-
/O.NEW.KMLB.MA.W.0126.140911T2006Z-140911T2200Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
406 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...

FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM.

FROM 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE CAPE CANAVERAL TO JUPITER INLET.

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 400 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A DEVELOPING BAND OF SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS OVER 34 KNOTS FROM 70 MILES EAST OF COCOA BEACH TO 25 MILES
EAST OF SAINT LUCIE INLET...MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WINDS OVER 34 KNOTS AND
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. SMALL CRAFT...ESPECIALLY THOSE UNDER SAIL...
SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE HARBOR IF POSSIBLE. MAKE SURE YOU AND YOUR CREW
ARE WEARING APPROVED FLOTATION DEVICES DURING THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE FORMATION OF WATERSPOUTS. A WATERSPOUT IS
A TORNADO OVER WATER THAT CAN BE DANGEROUS AND EVEN DEADLY. SMALL
CRAFT CAN BE SWAMPED OR OVERTURNED BY A WATERSPOUT. STAY AWAY FROM
THEM AT ALL TIMES. IF YOU SIGHT A WATERSPOUT...CONTACT THE COAST
GUARD VIA MARINE RADIO OR LOCAL OFFICIALS AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR
REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2713 8015 2720 8022 2719 8025 2715 8026
2719 8027 2719 8029 2723 8032 2725 8032
2721 8026 2723 8022 2740 8031 2776 8028
2826 8002 2838 7954 2830 7955 2799 7941
2735 7963 2697 7970 2697 8009
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 081DEG 17KT 2836 7934 2796 7952
2741 7970 2740 7982 2715 7981

$$

[LaBreeze]

Anyone else seeing how large this thing is getting. It is getting quite impressive in displaying how to fire up convection. It must of heard me last night. Is it just me or is it building convection to the north of it as well. It looks like it is not in good conditions but still firing up not a good sign for the Gulf of Mexico residents.

Isn't this "system" expected to get pulled off to the NE with the approach of the front without making the GOM? Just wondering - although I have seen the models, I just wondered if the front will make it down in time.

[weatherfanatic]

34kts or higher? How is this not a TS? I know the logistics of what is needed but conditions are the same then they should issue IMO upgrades. But the NHC has all the say.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Anyone else seeing how large this thing is getting. It is getting quite impressive in displaying how to fire up convection. It must of heard me last night. Is it just me or is it building convection to the north of it as well. It looks like it is not in good conditions but still firing up not a good sign for the Gulf of Mexico residents.

Isn't this "system" expected to get pulled off to the NE with the approach of the front without making the GOM? Just wondering - although I have seen the models, I just wondered if the front will make it down in time.

I think ALL the models show it making it into the Gulf of Mexico.

[lrak]

I thought the front was suppose to stall and not push all the way into the Gulf?

[jhpigott]

While most of the heavy convection is over the gulf stream waters between Grand Bahama Island and along the C and SE FL coast, it sure looks like the low level circulation is still just north of Grand Bahama Island and not moving much at all.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12



Wouldn't suprise me if the convection dies off the next couple hours as we hit DMIN (as we've seen the past couple nights) and then fires up again Fri A.M. prior to the LL circ moving on shore somewhere along SE/C FL coast

[poof121]

Looks like the lowest pressure (1014.1 mb) is here (Lake Worth Pier, FL):

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=lkwf1&unit=M&tz=STN

[Stormcenter]

It's still not suppose to.

I thought the front was suppose to stall and not push all the way into the Gulf?

[fci]

34kts or higher? How is this not a TS? I know the logistics of what is needed but conditions are the same then they should issue IMO upgrades. But the NHC has all the say.

The special weather statement is referring to the thunderstorms offshore not the actual low pressure system itself.
These warnings are quite common here and oft times warn of winds higher than 34 upwards to 40,50 or even 60 in particularly severe storms either via a Special Weather Statement for storms over land or Marine Warnings for storms over water.

[AJC3]

34kts or higher? How is this not a TS? I know the logistics of what is needed but conditions are the same then they should issue IMO upgrades. But the NHC has all the say.

Convective wind gusts. Not sustained gradient winds or gusts. Huge difference.

[gatorcane]

There is some nice outflow on the southern half of the system as seen on WV loop imagery with the fanning of the cloud tops. Some upper-level NE to ENE shear evident on the north half of the system. There was some dry air to the NW in Central FL area but that seems to be moving out (yellows).

If that ENE/NE shear were not there, I think this would be ramping up quite a bit.

[Sanibel]

What that WV loop shows is a developing depression being squashed by a plunging upper level weather feature.

[MGC]

What a difference a day makes...the shear has really kicked up over 92L. This should hold it in check....we'll see what happens when it emerges into the GOM.....MGC

[poof121]

Looks like the lowest pressure (1014.1 mb) is here (Lake Worth Pier, FL):

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=lkwf1&unit=M&tz=STN

Pressure continues to drop (1013.7).

[Hammy]

I present Barry, 1983

http://oi60.tinypic.com/24v1ydg.jpg
http://oi58.tinypic.com/20aopdf.jpg

if this can go to a similarly sheared state that 92L is in to a hurricane, I have no reason to doubt the HWRF (which seems to do well with systems initialized in the subtropics) in it's forecast of development in the central Gulf in 96 hours.

[psyclone]

some of the best convection over the next couple of hours may actually focus on the western side of the peninsula as a result of seabreeze collision forcing. there's already some spicy returns in Lee county and that should zipper northward.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I'd be lucky to get a inch from 92L. Get more in a nice afternoon storm. The TV mets always hype something that never materializes.

[SFLcane]

I'd be lucky to get a inch from 92L. Get more in a nice afternoon storm. The TV mets always hype something that never materializes.

Ah..do you not see that huge rain shield heading sw into your area. Looks VERY wet for all of sfl through sat at least.

[Evil Jeremy]

I'd be lucky to get a inch from 92L. Get more in a nice afternoon storm. The TV mets always hype something that never materializes.

What TV mets were hyping this? It's not like the NHC thought this was going to hit Florida as a named system.

[floridasun78]

storm moving into miami now by airport