Global model runs discussion

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N2FSU
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7501 Postby N2FSU » Fri Sep 12, 2014 7:32 am

9/12 06Z GFS +168

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7502 Postby N2FSU » Fri Sep 12, 2014 7:34 am

06Z +216

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7503 Postby N2FSU » Fri Sep 12, 2014 7:36 am

06Z +252

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7504 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Sep 12, 2014 9:14 am

Hmm GFS continues to indicate gulf activity in long range but this time it's not 300+ hours. You can see the low organizing on the coast of the southern Yucatan next weekend before truncation so may be something to keep an eye on. IMO if the US gets impacted this season it will be from a storm emerging from these areas.
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#7505 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:46 pm

This NW Carib / Gulf of Mexico system may be real. The 00Z GFS now shows the low that eventually develops forming near Belize around 144 hours from now and also below is the 192 hour image before the model is truncated. It continues to bring in the development timeframe on each run.

144 hours from now:
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192 hours from now:
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#7506 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 13, 2014 8:21 am

06Z NAVGEM starting to pick up on something moving up from the NW Caribbean into the Gulf now, 180 hours below:
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7507 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Sep 13, 2014 8:36 am

gatorcane wrote:06Z NAVGEM starting to pick up on something moving up from the NW Caribbean into the Gulf now, 180 hours below:
Image

navgem loves to develop systems..never forget what it dud(ha) with the now infamous 92l
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#7508 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 13, 2014 8:46 am

FIM-9 has it too. So the GFS, FIM, and NAVGEM are showing a system forming in the NW Caribbean next weekend.

FIM-9 168 hours, with a broad system heading slowly north:
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7509 Postby N2FSU » Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:03 am

06Z GFS +138
Low pressure off of Belize

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7510 Postby N2FSU » Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:06 am

06Z +192

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7511 Postby N2FSU » Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:08 am

06Z +252

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7512 Postby ronjon » Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:34 am

00z Euro showing something similar at 240 hours. Not quite closing it off but low pressure off of w fl panhandle originating from the Yucatan area.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7513 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:24 am

ronjon wrote:00z Euro showing something similar at 240 hours. Not quite closing it off but low pressure off of w fl panhandle originating from the Yucatan area.

well we need to watch if it has euro support
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#7514 Postby Javlin » Sat Sep 13, 2014 5:21 pm

I do not mean to be a pessimist fellas but what the models show for DEVELOPMENT and what actually happens this year in the Atlantic is two different worlds.I will believe it when mother nature presents it and so far It's been a nice safe season thus far,take while we can :wink:
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7515 Postby N2FSU » Sat Sep 13, 2014 5:29 pm

12Z Euro +168
Looks like it closes off something off Belize

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7516 Postby N2FSU » Sat Sep 13, 2014 5:31 pm

12Z Euro +192

BOC?

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#7517 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 13, 2014 6:02 pm

18Z GFS drops the NW Carib / GOM system and now shows development in the EPAC instead.
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Re:

#7518 Postby MetroMike » Sat Sep 13, 2014 6:43 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z GFS drops the NW Carib / GOM system and now shows development in the EPAC instead.



Yes another insanely intense system forecasted in the EPAC...whats new this season :x
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7519 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:13 pm

Thread for wave the Euro develops later this week: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116751&hilit=&view=unread#unread
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7520 Postby hurricanehunter69 » Sun Sep 14, 2014 7:22 pm

GFS is showing some consistency with this potential Gulf storm.....? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... =&ps=model
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