WPAC: KALMAEGI - Post-Tropical

[Dave C]

if this stays south of Luzon then less weakening which would be bad news with favorable conditions in south china sea.

[euro6208]

15W KALMAEGI 140912 1800 13.6N 128.8E WPAC 50 985

Up to 50 knots!

[dexterlabio]

Not sure what JMA is doing either

This should go south of the models. There is a strong ridge to the NW of the system

Cannot rule out tropical storm force winds in Manila

How far south do you think this storm could go? I suppose the models are anticipating a strong midlatitude trough enough to weaken that strong ridge... 18z GFS shows landfall in Isabela province, but now also shows a stronger typhoon...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I guess this would track like Nesat or Ketsana. Kalmaegi is moving westerly or may perhaps wobbled a little south, which may mean Isabela, Aurora and Quezon are at most risk, based on data of center position.

[dexterlabio]

That's what I think too...this also might track similar to Nari last year... but we are not sure of the strength of the trough and how much it will weaken the STR..

[euro6208]

Slowed down dramatically compared to before...More time to ramp up and intensify...

[euro6208]

Visible...



Light to Moderate rains affecting large areas...

[euro6208]

https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV

James Reynolds aka Typhoon_Hunter on his way to Manila to intercept Kalmaegi...

[euro6208]

Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS Luzon Visayas Mindanao
#1
(winds of 30 - 60 kph is expected in atleast
36 hours)


Isabela
Southern part of Cagayan
Northern Aurora
Catanduanes
None
None

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/

[dexterlabio]

Now a Severe Tropical Storm as per JMA with 50kts sustained winds.

JTWC increased intensity to 55kts. Right now it looks to be tracking more WNW.

[euro6208]

Pink circle is tropical storm force winds and it covers the whole luzon area maybe could reach Metro Manila...Threat would be more of rain and flooding...



Good thing though is that it is expected to make landfall in a sparsely populated area with small towns in Isabela province just north of Dinapique...

[euro6208]

55 knots...

WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (KALMAEGI) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 454 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CORE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE (CDO); ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
IMPROVED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE
AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. A 122356Z GMI IMAGE AND
A 122252Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS TIGHTLY
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC POSITIONED ON THE NORTH QUADRANT
OF THE CDO, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. DESPITE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
WHICH IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH IMPROVED
OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL LOCATED NEAR GUAM. ADDITIONALLY, THE
MODERATE VWS IS BEING REDUCED BY THE WESTWARD TRACK MOTION AND
OUTFLOW HAS A MORE RADIAL APPEARANCE IN THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. RECENT 500 MB ANALYSES SHOW A STRONG, EAST-WEST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TS 15W IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TRACK SPEEDS (07 TO 09 KNOTS) AS IT
TRANSITS SOUTH OF A BREAK IN THE STR. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
ACCELERATE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE WESTERN BRANCH OF THE STR, WHICH
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS A MIDLATITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER EAST
ASIA. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE WARM SST, HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. TS KALMAEGI IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL OVER EASTERN LUZON NEAR TAU 42, LEADING TO A TEMPORARY
WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF LUZON.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE STR REMAINS ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) WILL FURTHER ALLOW TS 15W TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SCS. NEAR TAU 96, TS
KALMAEGI IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE MODEL ENSEMBLES) IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

Is it just me or is the center closer to 15N latitude?

[dexterlabio]

I am quite convinced that the center is at around 15N...not sure if it's now tracking more northwards or just the center reforming or getting vertically stacked. I could be wrong though, but IMO I'm not buying this spot as its center:




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.

[euro6208]

I am quite convinced that the center is at around 15N...not sure if it's now tracking more northwards or just the center reforming or getting vertically stacked. I could be wrong though, but IMO I'm not buying this spot as its center:




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.

Interesting that JMA at 14.0 and JT at 14.1 is too far south which will likely determine if this makes landfall further north or maybe misses?...

Latest KNES agrees with you...

20140913 0232 14.6 -128.0 T3.5/3.5 15W KALMAEGI

and what looks to be an eye developing...

[euro6208]

[mrbagyo]

Outflow of Kalmaegi as seen from the fishing town of Mercedes, Camarines Norte (ground zero of STY Angela 1995). I took the picture yesterday at around 04 UTC

[xtyphooncyclonex]

15W KALMAEGI 140913 0600 14.7N 127.5E WPAC 60 978

[euro6208]

60 knots...

WDPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (KALMAEGI) WARNING
NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A PERSISTENT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE (CDO) WHILE
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. A 130521Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC
THAT IS BEING OBSCURED BY THE CDO FEATURE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS BASED
ON THE IMPROVED BANDING WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES REMAIN AT 55 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS HINDERING THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE; HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING LOW VWS AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS
ADDITIONALLY BEING ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL LOCATED NEAR GUAM. TS 15W
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A BUILDING, EAST-WEST
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. TS 15W WILL CONTINUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24
UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND GOOD OUTFLOW. TS KALMAEGI
IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN LUZON AFTER TAU 24,
LEADING TO A TEMPORARY WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF
LUZON.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND ACROSS THE
LUICHOW PENINSULA. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA (SCS) WILL FURTHER ALLOW TS 15W TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SCS. AFTER TAU 72, TS 15W IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA BEFORE IT
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES BY TAU 120 OVERLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
(INCLUDING THE MODEL ENSEMBLES) IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Projected landfall is slightly more north now has the core of Kalmaegi passing over Palanan, a small town of over +16,000 people...

Luzon is the #1 most hit area in the world that many of the towns are built inland away from the ocean.