ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 94, 2014091212, , BEST, 0, 196N, 944W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2014091218, , BEST, 0, 206N, 949W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2014091300, , BEST, 0, 213N, 957W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0,

Thread at Talking Tropics that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116743&p=2413682#p2413682

[Nimbus]

Circulation up near 24N at sunset but there is still some shear.

[cycloneye]

94L SSD Floater

[Steve]

Models have liked a spin with this and have shown more concentrated precip at "landfall" than 92L. 18z GFS continued that trend, but the heaviest concentration of precip is south of the border.

[Hammy]

Is it possible this could spin up before landfall? The rotation seems to be getting a tad better defined, there is plenty of moisture, the and there isn't a whole lot of wind shear around. Models also appear to strengthen it to near storm intensity around the time it moves ashore in 24 hours.

[Steve]

You'd have to give it a slim chance. I think it's more of just a deep surge involving 2 waves and a low pressure center. But you know how circulations want to tighten when they hit the west Gulf. I'd give it 20% shot at a depression which could be generous. Anything above that would surprise me. Best guess is a few inches of rain near where the center comes ashore, and probably general instability up the Texas coast ahead of a stalling boundary.

Obviously this post is not official information.

[TheStormExpert]

All I know is the GFS has been showing the GoM/BoC being active for days now. Besides the BoC is notorious for quick spin ups (like Dolly) even in overall unfavorable seasons like this.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave over
the western Gulf of Mexico is gradually moving inland over
northeastern Mexico, and additional development is not anticipated.
Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to continue
over portions of eastern Mexico and extreme southern Texas today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Brownsville is about to get pounded from x-94L.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... o&loop=yes

[Rgv20]

Thanks 94L!