Texas Summer - 2014

[ravyrn]

Steve McCauley cracks me up!

Check out the outflow boundary blasting out of the back of the storms that are ongoing in the far eastern sections of the Metroplex. The storms to the east fired on a similar boundary, so why are there no storms forming on this new one? Two main reasons: (1) This new boundary is pushing into a region where the air overhead is sinking, so even though clouds are trying to tower up along the boundary, they are getting smashed back down again by the subsiding air; (2) The boundary is moving fast, and behind the boundary the air is cool. So even though clouds are trying to form, they quickly start to ingest the rain-cooled air which makes them want to fall back down. Clouds build high into the sky and turn into thunderstorms more efficiently when it is warm near ground level. They don't like it when the ground has been cooled. Ever try to fly high in a cold-air balloon?

The storms out there now should fade as the sun goes down.

I wish I knew how to link the video he posted on his facebook. I don't though. Go check out his fb page if you want to see the radar video he is discussing. https://www.facebook.com/wfaa.steve.mccauley?fref=nf

[Ntxw]

Not the comment I was hoping to see from Ntxw.

I know it's painful for me to write too. I usually enjoy finding the optimism when it comes to stuff like that but honestly for the time being it just isn't favorable. The global pattern isn't one that is that wet at the moment in our neck of the woods with low AAM. This labor day we may not have any named tropical systems anywhere in the northern hemisphere (heck given the southern hemisphere is in winter/early spring I don't see any there either), that's pretty amazing for the first of Sept which typically is one of the most active periods worldwide. It will change down the road but it's not yet within reach.

We can partially blame the massive eastward progression of superimposed-supressed Kelvin wave. It shut down the WPAC for a month and heading for EPAC/ATL next. It's done a number on moisture globally. Luckily the WPAC and CPAC will get wetter very soon in the coming future.

[somethingfunny]

Luckily the WPAC and CPAC will get wetter very soon in the coming future.

If past experience is anything to go by, a WPAC uptick could mean more strong cold fronts plunging into Texas by mid-month.

I had never heard of Kelvin Waves until this season (I'm more familiar with MJO). Are these a newly understood phenomena or are they stronger than usual this year, or have I just been missing the discussions about them up until now?

[brewskymc]

Luckily the WPAC and CPAC will get wetter very soon in the coming future.

If past experience is anything to go by, a WPAC uptick could mean more strong cold fronts plunging into Texas by mid-month.

I had never heard of Kelvin Waves until this season (I'm more familiar with MJO). Are these a newly understood phenomena or are they stronger than usual this year, or have I just been missing the discussions about them up until now?

I remember seeing some discussion of a Kelvin Wave during a recent La Nina winter. If I remember correctly, that particular Kelvin Wave caused the SOI to tank briefly which activated the southern stream... and, ultimately, brought us a decent precipitation event during that very dry winter.

[Ntxw]

Luckily the WPAC and CPAC will get wetter very soon in the coming future.

If past experience is anything to go by, a WPAC uptick could mean more strong cold fronts plunging into Texas by mid-month.

I had never heard of Kelvin Waves until this season (I'm more familiar with MJO). Are these a newly understood phenomena or are they stronger than usual this year, or have I just been missing the discussions about them up until now?

It was always there. Just masked by the larger presence of MJO, though often times the two are in sync. We just didn't have the ability to separate the faster and smaller scale Kelvin waves (area of increased lift and precipitation) within the MJO or when the MJO is incohorent. Thanks to the work of Mike Ventrice and others (mostly U Albany) the field is growing in awareness.

[Ntxw]

Just gut wrenching to watch the western gulf activity drawn up by the westerlies across LA north/east. Just can't trust the Atlantic, it did us little good. There is a little hint down the road something may try to organize on the west coast of MX and may re curve in. Not within the next week or week and half though.

[Portastorm]

That's a heartbreaking image for us in Texas.

[dhweather]

:uarrow:

That's a heartbreaking image for us in Texas.

I am almost ready to concede that severe drought is the new normal. Roughly 15 years of this now, and hopes of it relenting have been destroyed. It is going to require a biblical type of event to break this drought, and quite honestly, I don't see it happening. 2-3 wet years would do it, but we don't have wet years anymore.

Sorry for gloom and doom, but in my opinion, this is what we can expect. Long term patterns tell me this is all cyclical and it should change in time, but I've been telling myself that for years with the same result, more drought.

[Ptarmigan]

:uarrow:

That's a heartbreaking image for us in Texas.

I wonder why that happens.



I see dry air over Central Texas, which likely came from East Pacific.



Here is a East Pacific Satellite water vapor satellite image. Lots of dry air. I would guess the Kelvin Wave.

[Ptarmigan]

:uarrow:

That's a heartbreaking image for us in Texas.

I am almost ready to concede that severe drought is the new normal. Roughly 15 years of this now, and hopes of it relenting have been destroyed. It is going to require a biblical type of event to break this drought, and quite honestly, I don't see it happening. 2-3 wet years would do it, but we don't have wet years anymore.

Sorry for gloom and doom, but in my opinion, this is what we can expect. Long term patterns tell me this is all cyclical and it should change in time, but I've been telling myself that for years with the same result, more drought.

Droughts are pretty bad. They can contribute to many bad things, among them diseases.

Trigger events: enviroclimatic coupling of Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks
http://www.ajtmh.org/content/71/5/664.long

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–pandemic Influenza connection: Coincident or causal?
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/01/11/1107485109

[JDawg512]

Finally after a long bone dry month, had a pretty intense storm form overhead yesterday. For a time it prompted the NWS to issue a severe thunderstorm warning then they issued a flash flood warning. Got 1.23 inches of rain. It would be nice to see some more today but it's unlikely given the current conditions. That satellite loop above says it all... Dry pocket.

[gboudx]

Steve McCauley:

"The atmosphere has now lost its cap, so we are ready for storms to pop. Coverage across north Texas (and the Metroplex) will be about 20%. Storms that do form will be capable of very heavy rainfall because they will move very slowly. Storms will favor the area west of a line from Paris to Waco.

After today, rain chances drop back down below 10% for at least the next week, so good luck to the 20% that get wet today, and be mindful of the lightning and gusty winds."

[Ntxw]

I'm not seeing any large scale rain opportunities statewide within the next 7 days. I don't trust the gulf/Atlantic basin as it has underperformed. I don't think we've had a named system in the gulf or boc at all this season (quite unusual). With the EPAC quiet and suppressed MJO, no true tropical connection aside from weak passing shortwaves.

Hopefully I will end up wrong given there is 93E now in the EPAC and Euro giving a good chance at it. It will still be awhile before any kind of moisture will be felt from it but it gives a hope. If we're going to be saved, this is where to look imo not so much Atlantic.

[Ntxw]

Here's the finale for meteorological summer 2014 for DFW as the last day is today and seasonal records are kept at 3 month intervals.

This summer June/July/August is the coolest at DFW since 2007 at 84.2F. It is also the wettest summer at DFW since 2007 at 8.58 inches. Days over 100 totaled 14 also the least since 2007.

Final Verdict for predictions is near average summer, and wetter than normal. Time to go back and verify some of those forecasts!

[Ptarmigan]

I'm not seeing any large scale rain opportunities statewide within the next 7 days. I don't trust the gulf/Atlantic basin as it has underperformed. I don't think we've had a named system in the gulf or boc at all this season (quite unusual). With the EPAC quiet and suppressed MJO, no true tropical connection aside from weak passing shortwaves.

Hopefully I will end up wrong given there is 93E now in the EPAC and Euro giving a good chance at it. It will still be awhile before any kind of moisture will be felt from it but it gives a hope. If we're going to be saved, this is where to look imo not so much Atlantic.

Fall is when those East Pacific storms start to turn towards Mexico and go over America. Some of Texas's biggest rain events have happened due to EPAC hurricanes like in 1994 and 1998.

[somethingfunny]

Is today the day we should switch to the Fall Thread?

[Portastorm]

Is today the day we should switch to the Fall Thread?

Probably makes the most sense. While we/I cannot force folks to do things around here (although sometimes I wish I could ... LOL), this is a good idea to move to the Fall thread.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Brownsville is about to get pounded from x-94L.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... o&loop=yes