WPAC: KALMAEGI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Wish JMA (10 min) had this kind of discussion?...Only agency in the Pacific and Atlantic to not have this and being an RSMC, They are seriously lacking valued information for the world's most active basin ...Sad...

WDPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 326 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A CONTINUALLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A BUILDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE (CDO) WHILE
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. AN EARLIER 130936Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
LOOSE 37 GHZ EYE FEATURE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO TYPHOON STRENGTH (65 KNOTS)
BASED ON THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD HAVE INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TY 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A
BUILDING, EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. TY 15W WILL CONTINUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND STRONG OUTFLOW. TY
KALMAEGI IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN LUZON NEAR TAU
24, LEADING TO A TEMPORARY WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE ROUGH TERRAIN
OF LUZON. AS THE SYSTEM RE-EMERGES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TY 15W TO RE-INTENSIFY
AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 15W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PROCEEDS WEST-
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA BEFORE IT EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATES BY TAU 120 OVERLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

JMA...

[euro6208]

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2014/09/13/deteriorating-weather-ahead-of-typhoon-kalmaegi-bagyong-luis-saturday-night-update/

Our very own Mike Adcock aka Senorpepr on Typhoon Kalmaegi...

[euro6208]

Latest KNES also at 4.0!

TXPQ28 KNES 131510
TCSWNP

A. 15W (KALMAEGI)

B. 13/1432Z

C. 15.6N

D. 126.2E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI

H. REMARKS...DT=4.0 BASON ON .9 WH BAND. PT=4.0. MET=4.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

13/1140Z 15.5N 126.3E TMI


...SCHWARTZ

[euro6208]

WOW...

Shear has really prevented Kalmaegi from really developing into her true potential to a Category 5 Super Typhoon, over +30 C, moist atmosphere, NO dry air but shear has increased to 30 knots just west of her core...Thank goodness but from a tracking perperstive, NO!

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Likely going to affect close to 300 million in it's forecast track now and later...

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

7C core temp, a monster...

[euro6208]

18Z BT:

15W KALMAEGI 140913 1800 15.5N 125.8E WPAC 65 974

[euro6208]

Interesting that JTWC and JMA have different location fixes on Kalmaegi. Either one of them gets it wrong.

Yup confirmed my thinking. JMA has relocated further north near to JTWC's position

[euro6208]

latest GFS even lower, 939 mb landfall?

[dexterlabio]

^i dont know, thats hard to believe when the central convection gets constantly sheared. It has roughly 12 hours before landfall...

[somethingfunny]

What is the GFS initializing Kalmaegi at? Because it looks like it's still a bit sheared and maybe tilted toward the south, but as we've learned in the Atlantic this season appearances can be deceiving sometimes.

[somethingfunny]

Sadly a ferry has capsized near Leyte, likely caused by Kalmaegi.

http://m.bbc.com/news/world-asia-29193653

[dexterlabio]

So Kalmaegi got a decent microwave eye just before landfall.


By the way, Manila is currently experiencing heavy rainfall and strong winds, probably TS strength.

[phwxenthusiast]

So Kalmaegi got a decent microwave eye just before landfall.


By the way, Manila is currently experiencing heavy rainfall and strong winds, probably TS strength.

Yup. If not for the shear, the system may have intensified even faster before landfall. Good news for Luzon that it stayed Cat-1.

Anyway, a weather station in Divilacan reported a minimum pressure of 975hPa earlier this afternoon as the center moved ashore. Meanwhile, Laoag City is reporting a minimum pressure of 981hPa as the center moves very near the city. The strongest sustained winds I've found so far was in Aparri, Cagayan with 65kph. Data in Tuguegarao were unimpressive--only 50kph sustained.

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 114.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 114.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 19.8N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 20.7N 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 21.5N 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.4N 101.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 113.6E.
TYPHOON 15W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 204 NM SOUTH OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 20//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 15W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 204 NM SOUTH OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WHILE A LARGE BANDING FEATURE CAN BE OBSERVED
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 151009Z CORIOLIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED BANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS AS AN
IRREGULAR EYE FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION AND DIRECTION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS BASED
ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE
FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE (15 TO 25
KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CONTINUES TO PRESS
UPON THE SYSTEM WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND THE MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. TY 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD, EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG STR THROUGH TAU 72. A SHORT WINDOW
OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS NORTHERN HAINAN ISLAND WHICH WILL INDUCE A
WEAKENING TREND. AS TY KALMAEGI APPROACHES THE COAST OF VIETNAM, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND AND
DISSIPATES BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE MODEL
ENSEMBLES) IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[windysocks]

It's been a wild night in Hong Kong, and still No. 8 signal in force this morning.

[dexterlabio]

Though it wasn't an intense typhoon, Kalmaegi seemed to have a large windfield. Stormy weather reached as far south as Southern Luzon when it made landfall in Cagayan Valley area last weekend.