2014 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure located about 250 miles south of the coast
of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this disturbance over the next several days while it
drifts toward the northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

The EPAC has just gone mad this year! I honestly think this is the year we go Greek.

I'd say that is quite unlikely. The season is almost over and at this point, the only area that can spawn TC's is off the west coast of Mexico.

[supercane4867]

00z GFS develops the next system with in 3 days and quickly intensifies into a hurricane by 96 hours

[supercane4867]

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like they bring Rachael onshore by day 8. Worth noting that they initially brought future Polo onshore Central America before backing off. Likely a mistake the GFS would often make, but TC's usually don't develop this fast. That means we are in an active season. GFS has shown this for quite some time, so this is not phantom.

[Ntxw]

8th Major in the works with Odile (not yet officially but it's a sure bet). Except this one could hurt more than the ones before it, unfortunately.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow. We could be at Vance or Trudy by the end of the month.

[cycloneye]

Invest 97E is up

[Yellow Evan]

Keep them coming boys.

[Ntxw]

Keep them coming boys.

Still have a ways to go. It's just one of those seasons, October is often very bad in the EPAC closer in. We all had a hunch MX was going to start feeling the heat compared to earlier in the season. Odile is probably not the last to hit, unfortunately.

ACE is about 6 points from surpassing 2006. After that 1982 and 1997 super Nino's on deck to be passed.

[Yellow Evan]

Keep them coming boys.

Still have a ways to go. It's just one of those seasons, October is often very bad in the EPAC closer in. We all had a hunch MX was going to start feeling the heat compared to earlier in the season. Odile is probably not the last to hit, unfortunately.

ACE is about 6 points from surpassing 2006. After that 1982 and 1997 super Nino's on deck to be passed.

Yea, although vertical instability is struggling with most of the dry air in the WDR (116W to the dateline). We still have about 6 weeks left before the season starts to cave in and the ITCV shuts down.

[CrazyC83]

Odile looks to be the first name of 2014 in the Western Hemisphere that has a good shot at being retired.

[HurricaneRyan]

Odile looks to be the first name of 2014 in the Western Hemisphere that has a good shot at being retired.

And it will be the third season in a row for this list in the EPAC to retire a name, following Kenna in 2002 and Alma in 2008

[Windsurfer_NYC]

8th Major in the works with Odile (not yet officially but it's a sure bet). Except this one could hurt more than the ones before it, unfortunately.

Is it the 8th major in EPac, or 7th, as per NHC:

Odile is the seventh major hurricane to form in the eastern North Pacific basin this season, which is only one shy of the record since the advent of satellite imagery.

I see 8 majors, all declared east of 140W

[WeatherGuesser]

1. C4 Hurricane Amanda
2. TS Tropical Storm Boris
3. C4 Hurricane Cristina
4. TS Tropical Storm Douglas
5. TS Tropical Storm Elida
6. TS Tropical Storm Fausto
7. TS Tropical Storm Wali
8. C4 Hurricane Genevieve
9. C1 Hurricane Hernan
10. C4 Hurricane Iselle
11. C3 Hurricane Julio
12. C1 Hurricane Karina
13. C1 Hurricane Lowell
14. C5 Hurricane Marie
15. C3 Hurricane Norbert
16. C4 Hurricane Odile
17. TD 16E
18. C? Polo

[WeatherGuesser]

TD 16 ends up in position 17 because of Walli?

[Yellow Evan]

8th Major in the works with Odile (not yet officially but it's a sure bet). Except this one could hurt more than the ones before it, unfortunately.

Is it the 8th major in EPac, or 7th, as per NHC:

Odile is the seventh major hurricane to form in the eastern North Pacific basin this season, which is only one shy of the record since the advent of satellite imagery.

I see 8 majors, all declared east of 140W

Genevieve was a major at 179W. NHC doesn't like to count those.

[Yellow Evan]

TD 16 ends up in position 17 because of Walli?

Yes.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

8th Major in the works with Odile (not yet officially but it's a sure bet). Except this one could hurt more than the ones before it, unfortunately.

Is it the 8th major in EPac, or 7th, as per NHC:

Odile is the seventh major hurricane to form in the eastern North Pacific basin this season, which is only one shy of the record since the advent of satellite imagery.

I see 8 majors, all declared east of 140W

Genevieve became a major very close to the International Date Line, which makes it not count east of 140ºE.

[somethingfunny]

8. C4 Hurricane Genevieve

Genevieve became a Category 5 in the Western Pacific, but it was a Category 4 in the final advisory before it crossed the dateline and that is counted in the Eastern Pacific by definition.
It still counts even if it's for one advisory - unless you guys think that Marie shouldn't count as a Category 5 since it was only so for one advisory.

(Marie might be be reassessed as an earlier C5 in postseason, but Genevieve likely will be reassessed for Category 4 and 3 intensities occurring earlier as well....If the Atlantic can count Edouard, the CPAC can count Genevieve!)