EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

I apologize as I am learning all of the terminology that is used and learning about hurricanes in general. But it was literally set as a Cat 3 just a short time ago. Did it really intensify to Cat 4 that quickly?

This technically is not a Cat 4 yet. The National Hurricane Center has yet to update their database yet alone release it to the general public.

They have done the former just now.

EP, 15, 2014091406, , BEST, 0, 185N, 1069W, 115, 941, HU, 34, NEQ, 160, 160, 130, 100, 1005, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
EP, 15, 2014091406, , BEST, 0, 185N, 1069W, 115, 941, HU, 50, NEQ, 70, 70, 50, 60, 1005, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
EP, 15, 2014091406, , BEST, 0, 185N, 1069W, 115, 941, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 1005, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,

[Kingarabian]

I apologize as I am learning all of the terminology that is used and learning about hurricanes in general. But it was literally set as a Cat 3 just a short time ago. Did it really intensify to Cat 4 that quickly?

When a storm is close to land the NHC issues Intermediate advisories between discussions to keep the public updated. Now since the Pacific ocean is massive, it's expensive to have the Air Force Reconnaissance planes to periodically run missions on every hurricane that forms. So the NHC relies on satellite imagery and the use of the Dvorak technique. The NHC saw that based on satellite imagery the hurricane classified as a category 3 hurricane. Shortly after, agencies that issue Dvorak numbers, issued a Dvorak reading that translates to a cat. 4 hurricane.

It's likely that it has been a cat.4 hurricane before the NHC issued an advisory, but the NHC is usually conservative without Dvorak numbers or Reconnaissance data.

[Ntxw]

What time does recon come in?

[supercane4867]

This may very well end up a Cat 5.

Let's hope it does not go EWRC any time soon

[Kingarabian]

I apologize as I am learning all of the terminology that is used and learning about hurricanes in general. But it was literally set as a Cat 3 just a short time ago. Did it really intensify to Cat 4 that quickly?

This technically is not a Cat 4 yet. The National Hurricane Center has yet to update their database yet alone release it to the general public.

They have done the former just now.

EP, 15, 2014091406, , BEST, 0, 185N, 1069W, 115, 941, HU, 34, NEQ, 160, 160, 130, 100, 1005, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
EP, 15, 2014091406, , BEST, 0, 185N, 1069W, 115, 941, HU, 50, NEQ, 70, 70, 50, 60, 1005, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
EP, 15, 2014091406, , BEST, 0, 185N, 1069W, 115, 941, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 1005, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,

I think they do this on purpose just in case it weakens somehow before the next discussion is issued.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

What time does recon come in?

Takes off at 9:30am EDT (6:30am PDT) for a center fix scheduled for 3pm EDT (12pm PDT).

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE ODILE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 14/1900Z
B. AFXXX 0115E ODILE
C. 14/1330Z
D. 20.5N 109.5W
E. 14/1845Z TO 14/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php

[Socalsgrl]

I apologize as I am learning all of the terminology that is used and learning about hurricanes in general. But it was literally set as a Cat 3 just a short time ago. Did it really intensify to Cat 4 that quickly?

This technically is not a Cat 4 yet. The National Hurricane Center has yet to update their database yet alone release it to the general public.

They have done the former just now.

EP, 15, 2014091406, , BEST, 0, 185N, 1069W, 115, 941, HU, 34, NEQ, 160, 160, 130, 100, 1005, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
EP, 15, 2014091406, , BEST, 0, 185N, 1069W, 115, 941, HU, 50, NEQ, 70, 70, 50, 60, 1005, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
EP, 15, 2014091406, , BEST, 0, 185N, 1069W, 115, 941, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 1005, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,

And exactly where are you all viewing this to get ur info? I really want to learn all of this as I have had a passion for the weather for a long time. I will post for more help in the main chat but thought to ask since I am interested in this particular storm ATM.

[Kingarabian]

They have done the former just now.

EP, 15, 2014091406, , BEST, 0, 185N, 1069W, 115, 941, HU, 34, NEQ, 160, 160, 130, 100, 1005, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
EP, 15, 2014091406, , BEST, 0, 185N, 1069W, 115, 941, HU, 50, NEQ, 70, 70, 50, 60, 1005, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
EP, 15, 2014091406, , BEST, 0, 185N, 1069W, 115, 941, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 1005, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,

And exactly where are you all viewing this to get ur info? I really want to learn all of this as I have had a passion for the weather for a long time. I will post for more help in the main chat but thought to ask since I am interested in this particular storm ATM.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Socalsgrl]

They have done the former just now.

EP, 15, 2014091406, , BEST, 0, 185N, 1069W, 115, 941, HU, 34, NEQ, 160, 160, 130, 100, 1005, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
EP, 15, 2014091406, , BEST, 0, 185N, 1069W, 115, 941, HU, 50, NEQ, 70, 70, 50, 60, 1005, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
EP, 15, 2014091406, , BEST, 0, 185N, 1069W, 115, 941, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 1005, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,

And exactly where are you all viewing this to get ur info? I really want to learn all of this as I have had a passion for the weather for a long time. I will post for more help in the main chat but thought to ask since I am interested in this particular storm ATM.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Thank you KingArabian, that site even has training module link available. much appreciated!

[Kingarabian]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Thank you KingArabian, that site even has training module link available. much appreciated!

You're welcome.

Tomorrow there will be a live recon mission. You should log on and see how it's like. Basically we just post live data sent out from the air force plane. It's pretty cool since you will be one of the first people to see updated details about a storm. Plus we have real meteorologists taking part and giving their input.

[supercane4867]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ODILE EP152014 09/14/14 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 115 126 131 131 128 115 102 89 69 54 37 21 DIS
V (KT) LAND 115 126 131 131 128 115 102 89 69 54 37 21 DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 115 128 132 131 128 118 106 92 75 61 49 40 31
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 7 8 8 11 8 2 6 12 15 22 28 36
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 2 0 -3 0 -1 -4 -5 -4 -1 -5 -3
SHEAR DIR 117 167 171 183 223 200 197 231 203 224 218 219 219
SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.8 27.8 26.0 24.1 23.2 22.8 22.5 22.4
POT. INT. (KT) 159 162 158 156 155 152 141 122 101 92 87 83 81
200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -50.5 -50.2 -50.4 -50.2 -50.2 -50.1 -50.3 -50.3 -50.1 -50.4 -50.2
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 3 4 4
700-500 MB RH 79 79 79 78 75 73 69 68 62 57 47 39 33
MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 28 28 27 26 25 21 19 17 13 11
850 MB ENV VOR 65 74 76 78 68 60 43 22 7 3 0 11 40
200 MB DIV 88 48 54 62 16 44 68 12 19 28 40 13 5
700-850 TADV -9 -5 0 -3 0 8 0 3 2 1 0 -5 -11
LAND (KM) 222 229 292 149 46 51 110 57 69 79 126 115 95
LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.6 20.6 21.7 22.7 24.2 25.5 26.5 27.1 27.9 28.7 29.2 29.4
LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.7 108.5 109.5 110.4 111.9 113.2 114.2 115.1 115.8 116.4 116.7 116.6
STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 12 9 7 6 5 5 4 2 1
HEAT CONTENT 21 29 43 16 5 3 22 1 0 0 0 0 0

[supercane4867]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...ODILE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 107.3W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

[hurricanes1234]

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Odile has continue to rapidly strengthen overnight with the eye
becoming more distinct in infrared satellite imagery. Recent
microwave imagery shows a well-defined eye, and a long convection
band that appears to be beginning of a concentric eyewall.
Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 115 kt,
and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate is around 105 kt. Based on
these data, the initial wind speed is increased to 115 kt. Odile is
the seventh major hurricane to form in the eastern North Pacific
basin this season, which is only one shy of the record since the
advent of satellite imagery.

The hurricane is moving north-northwestward a little faster than
before, with an initial motion of 330 degrees at 13 kt. Odile
should turn northwestward today as it is steered around the western
portion of a strengthening ridge over the southern United States.
The track guidance is tightly clustered during the first 2 to 3 days
of the forecast period and the NHC forecast is near the middle of
the guidance envelope. The updated NHC track is very close to the
previous advisory through 72 hours. Later in the period, the GFS
and ECMWF show the cyclone continuing northwestward at a slower
forward speed, while some of the models indicate a more
north-northwestward or northward motion at days 4 and 5. The NHC
track leans toward the ECMWF and GFS solutions late in the forecast
period.

Warm water and low shear during the next 12 hours should allow for
some additional strengthening, but the rate of intensification is
expected to slow later today. In addition during the next day or
so, an eyewall replacement cycle could cause some fluctuations in
intensity. By Monday, the hurricane will be moving over cooler
water and weakening should begin. Rapid weakening is likely in a
couple of days as Odile moves over even colder waters and into a
more stable airmass as well as potential land interactions. The
updated NHC forecast shows a higher peak intensity due to the higher
initial intensity. After 24 hours, the NHC forecast is similar to
the previous advisory and a little below the intensity consensus.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of
Odile. In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern
Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's
circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United
States by early next week. This could result in heavy rains and
life-threatening flash flooding in those areas. Please see
information from your local weather office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 19.1N 107.3W 115 KT 135 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 20.7N 108.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 22.7N 110.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 24.3N 112.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 25.6N 113.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 27.3N 115.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 28.2N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 28.5N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

[Andrew92]

Chances of rain are very high already later this week in the Phoenix area, haven't looked into why but I am guessing due to Odile.

I am praying VERY hard for the people of Baja as this storm approaches. I just hope they know it's coming and are prepared, but even moreso hoping and praying that it weakens and misses the area. I am nervous for these people also, as this would only be the peninsula's fourth major hurricane hit since 1967. (Olivia in 1967 and Kiko in 1989 are two of the others, and I'm guessing Liza in 1976 is the other, even though it kind of grazed the east side of the peninsula but was a Category 4.)

-Andrew92

[supercane4867]

[Kingarabian]

Continues to intensify.

Disregard the ADT for now. Seems like it switched back to a CDO scene type for some reason.

[Kingarabian]

What time does recon come in?

Takes off at 9:30am EDT (6:30am PDT) for a center fix scheduled for 3pm EDT (12pm PDT).

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE ODILE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 14/1900Z
B. AFXXX 0115E ODILE
C. 14/1330Z
D. 20.5N 109.5W
E. 14/1845Z TO 14/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php

Sorry to bother, but can you post the link for the google maps files that are up to date?

[Kingarabian]

CNN FINALLY mentions this:

http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/14/world/ame ... ?hpt=hp_t2

[Kingarabian]

That curved band to the NNW means strictly business. Really appears that we could be looking at a Cat.5 hurricane by the time recon settles in.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

...ODILE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...

The header the NHC is using for the 11PM package is really worrying.