EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Sorry to bother, but can you post the link for the google maps files that are up to date?

My current operational system is here (the Pacific version of this system will likely be retired later this year):
http://tropicalglobe.com/recon/pacific/eastandcentral/

With the experimental new version of the system here (the replacement system):
http://tropicaleastpacific.com/recon/

The mission will start appearing first in the Google Earth file for the Atlantic until it reaches around half way across Mexico and then it will be available in the Google Earth file for the East Pacific.

Atlantic site:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

[Kingarabian]

Sorry to bother, but can you post the link for the google maps files that are up to date?

My current operational system is here (the Pacific version of this system will likely be retired later this year):
http://tropicalglobe.com/recon/pacific/eastandcentral/

With the experimental new version of the system here (the replacement system):
http://tropicaleastpacific.com/recon/

The mission will start appearing first in the Google Earth file for the Atlantic until it reaches around half way across Mexico and then it will be available in the Google Earth file for the East Pacific.

Atlantic site:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

Thank you brother.

[Kingarabian]

[Blown Away]

Wow, that's a good looking hurricane... EPAC so busy this season...

[WeatherGuesser]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
500 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...CATEGORY 4 ODILE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 107.7W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO LA PAZ

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA.
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
LORETO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
MULEGE.
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF MULEGE TO
SANTA ROSALIA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF ODILE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...AND THEN PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ODILE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
BEFORE THE HURRICANE NEARS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BEGINNING BY TONIGHT...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA LATE MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE
CONDITIONS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 15 INCHES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND WESTERN MICHOACAN. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

So, maybe 5? Maybe not.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2014 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 19:16:13 N Lon : 107:39:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 943.8mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -27.1C Cloud Region Temp : -73.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 137km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 43.3 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 15, 2014091412, , BEST, 0, 194N, 1077W, 115, 941, HU, 34, NEQ, 160, 160, 130, 100, 1005, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
EP, 15, 2014091412, , BEST, 0, 194N, 1077W, 115, 941, HU, 50, NEQ, 70, 70, 50, 60, 1005, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
EP, 15, 2014091412, , BEST, 0, 194N, 1077W, 115, 941, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 30, 1005, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,

TXPZ22 KNES 141215
TCSENP

A. 15E (ODILE)

B. 14/1200Z

C. 19.5N

D. 107.7W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.5/6.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...DT=5.5 BASED ON LG RING WITH DG EYE EMBEDDED BY
WH. PT=5.5. MET=5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

20140914 1200 19.5 107.7 T5.5/6.0 15E ODILE

[kimkolwiek]

This is another major hurricane on EPAC, hopefully it will bring some rain to SoCal.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2014 Time : 114500 UTC
Lat : 19:27:40 N Lon : 107:44:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 941.4mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -32.7C Cloud Region Temp : -72.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 137km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 43.4 degrees

[TheAustinMan]

Odile's large, intense mass of convection to its northwest is a pretty interesting feature that I've noticed with some intensifying major hurricanes in the eastern Pacific. I wonder what it entails ...

Anyhow, as this is a large, extremely intense hurricane the entire swath of the southern Baja California should keep very close eyes on this system.

[TheAustinMan]

First visible this morning for Odile. Looks like a bigger version of Cristina earlier this year.

[supercane4867]

[Yellow Evan]

Is it me or are cloud tops rapidly warming?

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2014 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 19:46:24 N Lon : 107:52:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 932.7mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : -11.5C Cloud Region Temp : -71.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 137km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.5 degrees

[supercane4867]

Odile likely has peaked and should steady weaken through today due to concentric eyewall cycle

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE ODILE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST LATER TODAY...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 108.2W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
FROM MULEGE TO SANTA ROSALIA...AND HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH NORTHWARD FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

After rapidly strengthening during the past 24 hours, it appears
that the intensity of Odile has leveled off for now. Microwave
images indicate that the cyclone has a double eyewall structure,
with the inner eyewall surrounding the 10-15 n mi diameter eye, and
the outer one located about 40-50 n mi from the center. Satellite
intensity estimates remain 115 kt, and that value is kept for the
initial wind speed. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Odile later today, and should provide a
better assessment of the strength and structure of this hurricane.

The major hurricane is moving northwestward at about 12 kt, steered
by a ridge located to its northeast. A continued northwestward
motion is expected during the next 3 to 4 days with a gradual
decrease in forward speed due to a strengthening trough off the U.S.
west coast. By the end of the forecast period, the shallow cyclone
is expected to become stationary or drift eastward in the low-level
flow. The models are tightly clustered for most of the forecast
period, and the NHC track forecast is close to the consensus aids.
This track takes the center of Odile very near the southern Baja
California west coast later today, and then just offshore
and parallel to the coast for the next several days.

The observed concentric eyewall structure, which is fairly common
in mature hurricanes like Odile, typically causes intensity
fluctuations in the short term, and the NHC intensity forecast
shows little change in strength during the next 24 hours. Odile
will be moving over cool water and into a drier airmass in 36 to 48
hours. These unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the
cyclone to quickly weaken. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to
the previous one, and not too different than the intensity model
consensus, IVCN.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of
Odile. In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern
Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's
circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United
States by early next week. This could result in heavy rains and
life-threatening flash flooding in those areas. Please see
information from your local weather office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 20.0N 108.2W 115 KT 135 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 21.7N 109.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 23.5N 111.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 24.9N 112.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 25.9N 113.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 27.5N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 28.1N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 28.3N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Ntxw]

Vis of Odile. You gotta feel for those folks along the Baja.



Aside, Euro and other guidance while not directly landfalling in California, pattern+Odile remnants is showing quite a bit of rain in Southern Calfornia

[Dave C]

That wider outer eyewall will spread the winds further out so that if it moves more west of Baja it will be harder for Cabo San Lucus to miss strongest winds.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2014 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 19:57:01 N Lon : 107:57:32 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 932.6mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +3.9C Cloud Region Temp : -69.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 137km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.5 degrees