WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Tropical Storm

[dexterlabio]

96W INVEST

15kts-NAmb-9.7N-153.0E






This could be the area where models are showing the next storm to form after Kalmaegi. NAVGEM and CMC are showing a weak disturbance while GFS is now again showing a typhoon next week.

[euro6208]

Latest BT has center around the chuuk area...Large system...

96W INVEST 140913 0600 9.7N 152.7E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

12Z BT:

96W INVEST 140913 1200 10.5N 149.9E WPAC 15 1010

[mrbagyo]

GFS is now recurving this system to the open Pacific in their 06z run. haha... will this be a FISH or a FROG?

[dexterlabio]

or will it ever form

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1N
143.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 143.0E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT EASTERLY FLOW. A 142227Z SSMIS IMAGE
INDICATES WEAK, SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY FROM THE NORTH
QUADRANT INTO THE WEST QUADRANT OF AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM GUAM SHOW EASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1006 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
143.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 138.7E, APPROXIMATELY 42 NM NORTH-
EAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED
BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. WEAK CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLARING OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WITH WEAK ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW CREATING LOW TO
MODERATE LEVELS (10 TO 15 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

96W INVEST 140916 0600 12.3N 137.6E WPAC 20 1005

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0N
138.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 137.6E, APPROXIMATELY 174 NM NORTH
OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 160437Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANTS BROADLY WRAPPING TOWARDS AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER. AN OLDER
160040Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED AN ELONGATED 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION
WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (01 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT
CONVECTION, BUT SLOW ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
MEDIUM.

Pressure at Yap continues to fall. Last pressure at 1004 mb...

[AFWeather]

TCFA out, and GFS intensifies this pretty well as it hooks out to sea. Comes close to the coast of Honshu, but I have a feeling that trend will end up shifting east over time.

[mrbagyo]

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N 137.0E TO 17.7N 131.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8N 136.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0N
137.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 136.5E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITHIN A
BROADER AREA OF TURNING. AN 161716Z AMSU-B AND A 161605Z GCOM IMAGE
DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
AREA WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING. GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EVIDENT OVER THE LLCC FOR AN OVERALL
POSITIVE AFFECT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST, WITH GOOD DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

TPPN11 PGTW 170034

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (N OF YAP)

B. 16/2332Z

C. XX.X

D. XXX.X

E. N/A/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT
BE FOUND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


SCHALIN

[AFWeather]

Haha I know that guy... Senior Airman Schalin. Did not know they let the junior guys put out advisories, interesting.

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 162216
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
816 AM CHST WED SEP 17 2014

PMZ161-171-170600-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
816 AM CHST WED SEP 17 2014

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTHWEST OF YAP MOVING TOWARD NORTHWEST...

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTHWEST OF YAP IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 14N136E AND IS MOVING
ROUGHLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 MPH.

SOUTHWEST MONSOON WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS YAP STATE AND THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY TONIGHT.

PLEASE STAY INFORMED ABOUT CURRENT WEATHER SITUATIONS BECAUSE THE
WEATHER CAN BE VERY CHANGEABLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY
AFFECTING MARINE ACTIVITIES. LISTEN FOR INFORMATION FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES.

$$

SIMPSON

[ManilaTC]

WTPN21 PGTW 170600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/162000Z SEP 14//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 162000)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
260 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1N 135.6E TO 16.8N 126.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 132.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.8N
136.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 132.8E, APPROXIMATELY 291 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-
CONSOLIDATION LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 170428Z NOAA-19
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING
TOWARDS THE CENTER. AN OLDER 170113Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 10 TO 15 KNOT
CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
PHILIPPINES SEA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180600Z.

[euro6208]

NWS Guam:

THE BROAD MONSOON CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
NEAR 12N136E. THIS CIRCULATION IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE PULLED AWAY FROM YAP AND KOROR WITH THE BULK OF THE
WEATHER NOW NORTHWEST OF BOTH LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...IR SATELLITE
SHOWS A SWATH OF SHOWERS NEARLY UPON YAP BETWEEN 139E AND 141E. GFS
PICKS UP ON THIS...SHOWING SHOWERS UPON YAP AT 6Z AND IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WEEKEND FORECAST FOR BOTH YAP AND KOROR LOOKS ERRATIC IN THE
MODELS WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WIND FLOW SWITCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION TO COMING FROM THE NORTH DIRECTION...BUT GENERALLY DRY.

AS THE MONSOON CIRCULATION GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS...WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHER SWELL ACROSS THE REGION.

[euro6208]

00Z GFS impressing run, 959mb typhoon into Mainland Japan.

[euro6208]

16th TC of the season!

WTPN32 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 12.8N 130.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 130.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.0N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.7N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.4N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.0N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.9N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 28.2N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 34.5N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 130.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 581 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (KALMAEGI) WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 581
NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING
INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 171054Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS INCREASED CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LLCC WITH BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TOWARDS THE
CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR AND AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AS WELL AS THE
CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT-SOURCE IS
LOCATED OVER THE SYSTEM SUSTAINING THE INCREASED CONVECTION. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW TAPPING INTO A TUTT
CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION TO
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE PHILIPPINES SEA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. TD 16W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 16W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 36, BUT WILL BEGIN TURNING NORTHWARD BEYOND THIS POINT
AS THE STR BEGINS TO RE-ALIGN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TRANSITORY
MID-LATITUDE LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN JAPAN. BY TAU 48, TD 16W WILL
CREST THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. TD 16W IS
EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS AS THE SSTS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE AND VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. BY TAU 72, TD 16W IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST, ALLOWING TD 16W TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AND LEADING TO A
PEAK INTENSITY AT 90 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE
STRUCTURE OF TD 16W. AROUND TAU 96, TD 16W WILL ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. AND
WILL COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A TYPHOON
STRENGTH COLD-CORE LOW. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, HOWEVER INDICATES VARIATIONS AT THE RE-
CURVE POINT SHOWING A 150 NM SPREAD AT TAU 48 WITH GFDN AND JAPANESE
ENSEMBLE (JENS) MODELS TAKING A SHARPER EASTWARD RECURVE. DUE TO LOW
INITIAL POSITION CONFIDENCE AND SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE
EXTENT AND SPEED OF THE RECURVE SCENARIO, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD OF MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE GFDN AND JENS
SOLUTIONS.//
NNNN