ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[WeatherGuesser]

Climate Prediction Center September update / El Nino chance at 60%-65% by Fall thru Winter / Weak El Nino expected

And still no discussion of what the result might be for winter.

[Ntxw]

Climate Prediction Center September update / El Nino chance at 60%-65% by Fall thru Winter / Weak El Nino expected

And still no discussion of what the result might be for winter.

It's something perhaps for the winter threads. But in short, weak El Nino will allow Canada to get colder. Stronger Nino's keep Canada warm and the cold anomalies are in the southern tier of US because of subtropical jet. Winter will probably be colder, and wetter for much east of the Rockies.

[LarryWx]

The noisy SOI has been negative most of August except for the first two days. Maybe Larry can pitch in some data for Aug correlation to ENSO and what Sept may show.

Ntxw,
I just saw this. If the TAO buoy based graphic is reflecting reality, there has been pretty substantial warming in 3.4 over the last few days. If this doesn't reverse quickly and if NOAA goes pretty much with TAO's warming, the Monday weekly will likely be even warmer than the prior week's +0.4. By the way, the early August Euro weeklies predicted the 3.4 warming of the last couple of weeks quite well.
This recent warming is certainly consistent with the recent 33 day string of SOI's (8 days longer than the one from early in 2014). The strongest warming was in late August, which is consistent with a rather common couple of weeks lag after a downturn in the SOI around this time of year. How does the 33 stack up with other long -SOI strings during the last half of the year with an oncoming Nino (since 1991-2)?

Oncoming Nino: # days -SOI
'09: 28 days
'06: 16
'04: 19
'02: 31
'97: 72
'94: 34
'91: 31

So, the only Nino since 1991-2 that had a significantly longer longest -SOI string late in the oncoming year was the super Nino of 1997-98, which had a 72 day string.

In contrast, the late 2012 Nino false alarm had only a 13 day string for its longest.

What were the longest non-Nino last half of year -SOI strings since 1991?

Non-Nino: # days -SOI
'92: 39
'93: 38
'01: 22

So, the Nino -SOI strings tell me that an oncoming Nino is quite likely. However, at the same time, the 1992 and 1993 strings tell me to still be wary of another false alarm like 2012.

The August 2014 SOI came in at -10.1. I counted 26 of 36 Augusts (72%) with SOI of -7 or lower ended up preceding (or were already within) a Nino. So, August 2012's -10.1 tells me El Nino is quite likely about to start.


Per the 0z Euro, the next 10 days will be dominated by -SOI's. (~9/11 may be barely +). This along with the subsfc continues to support warming toward a weak Niño peak (to possibly low end mod) this fall/winter. This along with good prospects for +PDO bodes well for those who want a cold winter in much of the E US as long as we can get -NAO then.

[Ntxw]

ENSO update tomorrow from the CPC, will be interesting to see if we go above 0.5C into El Nino threshold again. My guess is we will but how much? Buoys have been optimistic. Anything between 0.5 to 0.7 seems reasonable. Surprising how quickly the new sub-surface has progressed eastward, there may even be another oceanic kelvin wave behind it as you can see the warmth persisting out west. Raw westerlies are happening near the dateline. Seems to have done so a little faster than the first, but that may just be seasonal averages changing much quicker in the fall.

Also quick update on the MEI, which has been in El Nino threshold since May/June couplet and held steady. So while the Ocean may not have held at that level a lot of the weather patterns across globe has. For example in NA the southwest US has experienced above normal rainfall while areas in the Caribbean have achieved less this summer.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html

[Ntxw]

Well those guesses were wrong, weekly indices update shows 3.4 remains at 0.4C. Only 1.2 saw warming to 1.2C.

[Yellow Evan]

To be fair, the data on Levi's site is a bit below the CPC. It's been hovering around 0.1C for the last week or so there.

[cycloneye]

Here is the text of the CPC 9/8/14 update that has no change to Nino 3.4 at +0.4C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[LarryWx]

To be fair, the data on Levi's site is a bit below the CPC. It's been hovering around 0.1C for the last week or so there.

The lack of even a slight rise to +0.5 in 3.4 is mildly surprising (since TAO clearly showed warming in eastern 3.4 vs prior week), but it is certainly not shocking as there have been many weekly updates that weren't at all consistent with TAO changes. Also, the weeklies had warmed a decent amount in recent weeks fwiw.
Regarding Levi's data, which would have suggested ~+0.1 as noted, the last few months of following it has suggested that the weeklies have been even less consistent with it. When his went up to nearly +1.0 averaged for that week in early summer and the weeklies remained only near +0.5, that first told me to take Levi's satellite based graph with a huge grain of salt. Regardless, I still follow his data fwiw.

[euro6208]

Latest models suggesting a possible two year el nino with the ongoing strengthening warm pool...If not, then conditions next year (active pacific, slow atlantic) will continue if you account for what's happening currently...

Note: BOM classifies nino at 0.8 while CPC classifies at 0.5...

[Ntxw]

The interesting thing is going back since April every update nino 1+2 has been well warmer than 3.4. It probably explains the high likeliness of shear in the Carib and low shear over in the EPAC despite no official Nino from 3.4 since June.

[Andrew92]

SUPER rainy day in Arizona today. I don't think I need to tell anyone who lives in the Phoenix area to be careful because you probably already know that by now.

Apparently the rains have been contributed from the remnants of Norbert, even though he is way out there. A satellite picture made me wonder but it seemed odd that there was one area of moderate convection in Arizona and only seeming cirrus clouds near and extending from the center. However, a local news outlet confirmed it was from Norbert.

I haven't lived here that long, but something continues to tell me we are, at minimum, in pre-El Nino conditions.

-Andrew92

[euro6208]

That would be something if it were to verify



More and more el ninoish...

Nino 4 is approaching +0.9C and these waters should move into nino 3.4 where it is now +0.4 and should spike up...I see el nino developing in December and lasting all the way to 2016...


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[TheStormExpert]

If that were to verify than the 2015 hurricane season shouldn't be any different than this year.

Seems likely though since I just can't see an El Niño forming within the next few months and only lasting through spring/early summer 2015.

[gigabite]

:uarrow: If that were to verify than the 2015 hurricane season shouldn't be any different than this year.

Seems likely though since I just can't see an El Niño forming within the next few months and only lasting through spring/early summer 2015.

My model tends to disagree. If February is the tail end of this temperature anomaly the similarity is more like 2012. That would be 19-10-2.

[WPBWeather]

:uarrow: If that were to verify than the 2015 hurricane season shouldn't be any different than this year.

Seems likely though since I just can't see an El Niño forming within the next few months and only lasting through spring/early summer 2015.

My model tends to disagree. If February is the tail end of this temperature anomaly the similarity is more like 2012. That would be 19-10-2.

Something is happening with Nino/Nina forecasts. Some forecasts from early this year (e.g., Super El Nino) busted. I was reviewing the posts here and at the NWS. Its been a downward trend with a few plateaus and a glimmer here and there, but still no Nino. Any ideas of what's happening??

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: If that were to verify than the 2015 hurricane season shouldn't be any different than this year.

Seems likely though since I just can't see an El Niño forming within the next few months and only lasting through spring/early summer 2015.

My model tends to disagree. If February is the tail end of this temperature anomaly the similarity is more like 2012. That would be 19-10-2.

It's very unlikely 2014 AHS will hit 19 storms. Or do you mean 2015 will have 19 storms?

[gigabite]

:uarrow: If that were to verify than the 2015 hurricane season shouldn't be any different than this year.

Seems likely though since I just can't see an El Niño forming within the next few months and only lasting through spring/early summer 2015.

My model tends to disagree. If February is the tail end of this temperature anomaly the similarity is more like 2012. That would be 19-10-2.

Something is happening with Nino/Nina forecasts. Some forecasts from early this year (e.g., Super El Nino) busted. I was reviewing the posts here and at the NWS. Its been a downward trend with a few plateaus and a glimmer here and there, but still no Nino. Any ideas of what's happening??

My methodology is based on celestial mechanics. Outside of the moons midsummer latitude being low for an extended number of years, and the distance from the sun being extended, Sun Spot Cycle 24 is somewhat diminished. The number of spotless days almost tripled between cycle 23 and 24. I would categorize that as limited mixing of oceanic thermoclines, the inverse temperature relationship caused by the distance between the Earth and the Sun, and a small Sun caused by limited Sunspot activity. These are mutually exclusive events that I don't think weather models consider. I can show some correlations, but to get a substantial one I have to cherry pick data or use complement data. Mine are mostly 4 dimension observation bounded 3 days either side of the New Moon. The bottom line is gravity. Since gravity can only be measured differentially it isn't well understood.

[Ntxw]

ENSO update tomorrow. By all measures that I am aware of Nino 3.4 is above 0.5C. Of course I say this then CPC will do otherwise .

[Kingarabian]

How's the PDO?

[Yellow Evan]

How's the PDO?

I read it was down to 0.67. A few on another forum are suspecting the +PDO is not ENSO driven, but rather, it's driven by the extreme amounts of blocking/-NPO we go early this year, which warmed the ocean.