EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

[CrazyC83]

Based on the SFMR (around 105 in a very large storm) and other data, 110 kt seems the best guess for intensity.

[CrazyC83]

923mb with 16 kt of wind in last dropsonde. Current pressure looks to be 922mb.

[supercane4867]

134kt flight level wind is still pretty damn high. I agree with the 110kt estimate though

[SeGaBob]

This is a beautiful storm right now... (Impacts won't be unfortunately)

[supercane4867]

923mb with 16 kt of wind in last dropsonde. Current pressure looks to be 922mb.

This indicates Odile may be not even weakening at all

[Kingarabian]

134kt flight level wind is still pretty damn high. I agree with the 110kt estimate though

Very high. Considering that it's almost done with the EWRC and is very large, the SFMR will probably shoot up as soon as it consolidates.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

923mb with 16 kt of wind in last dropsonde. Current pressure looks to be 922mb.

This indicates Odile may be not even weakening at all

Other than the on-going EWRC, don't know where anyone got the idea of weakening from.

[Aric Dunn]

923mb with 16 kt of wind in last dropsonde. Current pressure looks to be 922mb.

This indicates Odile may be not even weakening at all

Other than the on-going EWRC, don't know where anyone got the idea of weakening from.

yeah quite typical during a ERC that the pressure field expands and the winds drop off then as the new eyewall contracts the winds begin to come back up.

[Alyono]

surface winds often drop off significantly during an eyewall replacement, even though flight level winds can remain elevated

[Yellow Evan]

134kt flight level wind is still pretty damn high. I agree with the 110kt estimate though

Well 134 knt flight level could still correspond to 115 knts on the surface.

[supercane4867]

[Kingarabian]

Needs to start heading out NW soon if it wants to only graze BC.

[Yellow Evan]

Does not look to have weakened much just based on presentation.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2014 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 20:55:41 N Lon : 108:32:08 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 930.0mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : -1.8C Cloud Region Temp : -70.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 137km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.6 degrees

[Kingarabian]

I think Stewart is doing this advisory

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 142038
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
2100 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO LA PAZ

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO PUNTA EUGENIA.
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
LORETO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SANTA ROSALIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 108.9W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 922 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 130SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 390SE 330SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 108.9W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.5W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 22.6N 110.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 24.2N 111.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 25.4N 112.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 26.5N 113.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 27.8N 115.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 28.3N 115.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 28.5N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 108.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Aric Dunn]

Coming into radar range..

outer eyewall taking over quite nicely.. should see it deepen before landfall or closest approach... though at the moment looks like it might make landfall

[OzCycloneChaserTrav]

I cant get onto the mexican website, must be overloaded with traffic. I know Josh from Icyclone has landed in Los Cabos for the arrival of ODILE.

Looking pretty good for him at the moment with the Hurricanes latest positioning.

[Kingarabian]

Recon is done. Hopefully we can get another one soon.

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 142051
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...MAJOR HURRICANE ODILE EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 108.9W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO LA PAZ

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO PUNTA EUGENIA.
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
LORETO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SANTA ROSALIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE
ODILE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF ODILE WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ODILE IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...AND ODILE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AGAIN
BEFORE IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

ODILE IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 922 MB...27.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA LATE MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE
CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST
OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE BEGINNING
TO AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 15 INCHES IN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL BANDS
WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA...WESTERN
JALISCO...AND WESTERN MICHOACAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[hurricanes1234]

Pressure is extremely low for a Category 3.

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 142051
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...MAJOR HURRICANE ODILE EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 108.9W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO LA PAZ

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO PUNTA EUGENIA.
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
LORETO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SANTA ROSALIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE
ODILE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF ODILE WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ODILE IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...AND ODILE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AGAIN
BEFORE IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

ODILE IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 922 MB...27.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA LATE MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE
CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST
OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE BEGINNING
TO AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 15 INCHES IN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL BANDS
WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA...WESTERN
JALISCO...AND WESTERN MICHOACAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART