EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

I cant get onto the mexican website, must be overloaded with traffic. I know Josh from Icyclone has landed in Los Cabos for the arrival of ODILE.

Looking pretty good for him at the moment with the Hurricanes latest positioning.

The question for iCyclone is, what would be better Cabo or Todos Santos? Based on NHC track, Todos Santos seems like best place to ride this out. But if the N motion continues, then IMO it should be Cabo for Josh.

[hurricanes1234]

Is this the lowest pressure for a Category 3? We should really pray for those people in Odile's path.

[Yellow Evan]

Is this the lowest pressure for a Category 3? We should really pray for those people in Odile's path.

Yes. Top 10 for all EPAC hurricanes on record actually. Not too many live in Baja though.

[Kingarabian]

...MAJOR HURRICANE ODILE EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY... ...ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...

[Aric Dunn]

Is this the lowest pressure for a Category 3? We should really pray for those people in Odile's path.

Hurricane andrew had 922 when it made landfall.. the issue with winds right now is the ERC once its done the winds should come back up to cat 4

[Kingarabian]

Pressure is extremely low for a Category 3.

Very low. That low pressure will allow it to RI once again after the ERC is finished. Winds have a lot of catching up to do.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[galaxy401]

What is the lowest pressure of a hurricane making landfall in the EPAC?

[Yellow Evan]

Is this the lowest pressure for a Category 3? We should really pray for those people in Odile's path.

Hurricane andrew had 922 when it made landfall.. the issue with winds right now is the ERC once its done the winds should come back up to cat 4

Andrew was much smaller.

[Kingarabian]

Discussion:


000
WTPZ45 KNHC 142058
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Odile has been undergoing a concentric eyewall cycle since the
previous advisory, and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
has found an inner eye of about 10-12 nmi diameter and an outer eye
of 36 nmi diameter. Despite this normally unfavorable inner-core
structure, the central pressure has decreased to 922 mb and the 700-
mb maximum flight-level winds have increased from 122 kt to 134 kt
during the two passes through the northeastern quadrant. The highest
SFMR winds measured thus far have only been around 100 kt. However,
given the strong flight-level winds and the very low central
pressure, the initial intensity has only been decreased slightly to
110 kt, which is a blend of the SFMR winds and surface-adjusted
flight-level winds.

Major Hurricane Odile is moving north-northwestward or 330/13 kt.
There is no significant change to the previous forecast track
reasoning. A strong deep-layer ridge over Mexico is expected to keep
Odile moving north-northwestward to northwestward during the next
72 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to rapidly
weaken, with the low-level circulation decoupling from the mid- and
upper-level circulations. By Days 4 and 5, the shallow cyclone is
expected to become stationary or drift eastward within weak
low-level westerly flow. The models are tightly clustered through
72 hours, but diverge significantly after that with the ECMWF model
taking Odile intact across northern Baja and into the southwestern
U.S., while the GFS model keeps Odile's remnant low west of Baja
California. The official forecast leans heavily toward the GFS model
on Days 4 and 5 due to the expected rapid weakening of Odile. The
NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly closer to Baja
California, but not as far eastward as the consensus model TCVE.

Given that the central pressure has continued to decrease, and
satellite imagery and recon data suggest that the concentric
eyewall cycle could be coming to an end, some re-strengthening
overnight during the convective maximum period is a very distinct
possibility. During the 12-36 hour time frame, interaction with the
mountainous terrain of Baja California should induce gradual
weakening. By 48 hours and beyond, rapid weakening is expected due
to sharply decreasing sea-surface temperatures and increasing
southwesterly wind shear. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to
the previous advisory and is close to the consensus model IVCN.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of
Odile. In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern
Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's
circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United
States by early next week. This could result in heavy rains and
life-threatening flash flooding in those areas. Please see
information from your local weather office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 21.1N 108.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 22.6N 110.1W 115 KT 135 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 24.2N 111.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 25.4N 112.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 26.5N 113.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 27.8N 115.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 28.3N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 28.5N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

What is the lowest pressure of a hurricane making landfall in the EPAC?

Iniki, 942mbar. Holy crap. We could see a new record.

But pressure records don't go back pre-1988.

[Kingarabian]

What is the lowest pressure of a hurricane making landfall in the EPAC?

Iniki, 942mbar. Holy crap. We could see a new record.

But pressure records don't go back pre-1988.

Can't believe Iniki had a pressure that high.

[CrazyC83]

Even in the Atlantic, not too many storms had a pressure below 930 while a Cat 3.

[Kingarabian]

Any requirements posted by Recon for another mission before landfall?

[Yellow Evan]

Any requirements posted by Recon for another mission before landfall?

So far there is one planned tomorrow and one for Tuesday. I guess they could go out if it gets into the GOC.

[cycloneye]

Any requirements posted by Recon for another mission before landfall?

Another mission on Monday.

HURRICANE ODILE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
A. 15/1900Z
B. AFXXX 0215E ODILE
C. 15/1345Z
D. 24.2N 112.1W
E. 15/1845Z TO 15/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Yellow Evan]

What is the lowest pressure of a hurricane making landfall in the EPAC?

Iniki, 942mbar. Holy crap. We could see a new record.

But pressure records don't go back pre-1988.

Can't believe Iniki had a pressure that high.

Pressures in the CPAC are higher. And it had no recon right before landfall.

[wxmann_91]

Any requirements posted by Recon for another mission before landfall?

Another mission on Monday.

HURRICANE ODILE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
A. 15/1900Z
B. AFXXX 0215E ODILE
C. 15/1345Z
D. 24.2N 112.1W
E. 15/1845Z TO 15/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Might be too late if Odile decides to run up the spine of the Baja Peninsula.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2014 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 21:15:00 N Lon : 108:44:21 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 929.9mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +4.2C Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 137km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.7 degrees

[supercane4867]

Looks like Odile is making a bee line towards the southern tip of peninsula

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Katrina in the ATL was a category 3 with a pressure of 920 mbar. Close call for Odile.