Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[WeatherGuesser]

^^ I think people have been overstating the importance of any one factor or condition for quite a while now.

It's this.

No, it's that.

No, it's the other.

How about, it's a combination of factors that come together in different ways each season?

[Hammy]

I'm personally sticking with my 8-10 forecast, as I have maintained that things would get active, even if slightly (as opposed to no invests+dry air) around the end of the second week of September. Two invests (93L/94L) are pretty much dead in the water (well, one is over land) but models still continue to show something, even if a depression, forming from 92L, and there is general model consensus of something getting going in about a week or so in the MDR (again, could only be a weak storm) as well as something in the vacinity of the BoC or NW Caribbean. In all likelihood, September will end with 4/1/0 for the month, which would put the season at 7/4/0 by the start of October.

[windnrain]

How can you say the gulf is "already awake"?

It's dead.

It's been dead all season.

I just have no idea why nothing can seem to spin up 2 seasons in a row in what has traditionally been one of the most conducive places for tropical systems to form.

[WeatherGuesser]

I don't understand why there's nearly 700 posts on a non-storm and less than 200 on a potential Major.

[Hammy]

I don't understand why there's nearly 700 posts on a non-storm and less than 200 on a potential Major.

If you're referring to 92L, it's because it was affecting land, and where several posters are from. If you're referring to this thread, it's been open for a month.

A few notes about the season, as there have still been a few recent posts about 2014 being 2013 pt2, even if Edouard were to suddenly weaken 5kts from now until 48 hours, it would still exceed where 2013's ACE was at three days from now (currently the ACE is 23.73 vs 20.4825 last year)

How can you say the gulf is "already awake"?

It's dead.

It's been dead all season.

I just have no idea why nothing can seem to spin up 2 seasons in a row in what has traditionally been one of the most conducive places for tropical systems to form.

This statement could not possibly be more incorrect--not only did we have Dolly this year, but there were four storms in the Gulf last year, one of which was a hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

I don't understand why there's nearly 700 posts on a non-storm and less than 200 on a potential Major.

Agreed. Edouard is far more interesting than the average rainshower that 92L was (which IMO was never going to form).

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, 2014 is definitely a Yawn Fest..........We'll have to see if we get anymore storms or not. Nobody can say for sure one way or the other.

[Sanibel]

If conditions suddenly become favorable we could still get a Caribbean bomber.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I don't understand why there's nearly 700 posts on a non-storm and less than 200 on a potential Major.

If you're referring to 92L, it's because it was affecting land, and where several posters are from. If you're referring to this thread, it's been open for a month.

A few notes about the season, as there have still been a few recent posts about 2014 being 2013 pt2, even if Edouard were to suddenly weaken 5kts from now until 48 hours, it would still exceed where 2013's ACE was at three days from now (currently the ACE is 23.73 vs 20.4825 last year)

How can you say the gulf is "already awake"?

It's dead.

It's been dead all season.

I just have no idea why nothing can seem to spin up 2 seasons in a row in what has traditionally been one of the most conducive places for tropical systems to form.

This statement could not possibly be more incorrect--not only did we have Dolly this year, but there were four storms in the Gulf last year, one of which was a hurricane.

Could not disagree more. Like windnrain said the gulf has been dead. One system and that was Dolly in the far southern Bay of Campeche, the only area to find favorable conditions. And the 4 from last season were weak short lived systems that never could strengthen because of the horrible conditions. We are now starting to get fronts forecasted here in the deep south every 4-5 days now. Just had one move through yesterday and another mid next week. High today so far in Baton Rouge is 83, yesterday some places didn't get to 80. East coast troughs, fronts dropping down, ull's, and tons of shear this season is about all but over for the gulf. If a pretty well developed invest cant make it a day through the gulf without getting torn to pieces in mid September, don't see how anything can towards the end of the month or October when all the negatives will be even more frequent.

[WPBWeather]

I don't understand why there's nearly 700 posts on a non-storm and less than 200 on a potential Major.

If you're referring to 92L, it's because it was affecting land, and where several posters are from. If you're referring to this thread, it's been open for a month.

A few notes about the season, as there have still been a few recent posts about 2014 being 2013 pt2, even if Edouard were to suddenly weaken 5kts from now until 48 hours, it would still exceed where 2013's ACE was at three days from now (currently the ACE is 23.73 vs 20.4825 last year)

How can you say the gulf is "already awake"?

It's dead.

It's been dead all season.

I just have no idea why nothing can seem to spin up 2 seasons in a row in what has traditionally been one of the most conducive places for tropical systems to form.

This statement could not possibly be more incorrect--not only did we have Dolly this year, but there were four storms in the Gulf last year, one of which was a hurricane.

Could not disagree more. Like windnrain said the gulf has been dead. One system and that was Dolly in the far southern Bay of Campeche, the only area to find favorable conditions. And the 4 from last season were weak short lived systems that never could strengthen because of the horrible conditions. We are now starting to get fronts forecasted here in the deep south every 4-5 days now. Just had one move through yesterday and another mid next week. High today so far in Baton Rouge is 83, yesterday some places didn't get to 80. East coast troughs, fronts dropping down, ull's, and tons of shear this season is about all but over for the gulf. If a pretty well developed invest cant make it a day through the gulf without getting torn to pieces in mid September, don't see how anything can towards the end of the month or October when all the negatives will be even more frequent.

Could not disagree with you more. The weather in Baton Rouge (or in Gonzales a few miles south) has nothing to do with the Gulf. Come on now.

[Siker]

I don't understand why there's nearly 700 posts on a non-storm and less than 200 on a potential Major.

If you're referring to 92L, it's because it was affecting land, and where several posters are from. If you're referring to this thread, it's been open for a month.

A few notes about the season, as there have still been a few recent posts about 2014 being 2013 pt2, even if Edouard were to suddenly weaken 5kts from now until 48 hours, it would still exceed where 2013's ACE was at three days from now (currently the ACE is 23.73 vs 20.4825 last year)

How can you say the gulf is "already awake"?

It's dead.

It's been dead all season.

I just have no idea why nothing can seem to spin up 2 seasons in a row in what has traditionally been one of the most conducive places for tropical systems to form.

This statement could not possibly be more incorrect--not only did we have Dolly this year, but there were four storms in the Gulf last year, one of which was a hurricane.

Could not disagree more. Like windnrain said the gulf has been dead. One system and that was Dolly in the far southern Bay of Campeche, the only area to find favorable conditions. And the 4 from last season were weak short lived systems that never could strengthen because of the horrible conditions. We are now starting to get fronts forecasted here in the deep south every 4-5 days now. Just had one move through yesterday and another mid next week. High today so far in Baton Rouge is 83, yesterday some places didn't get to 80. East coast troughs, fronts dropping down, ull's, and tons of shear this season is about all but over for the gulf. If a pretty well developed invest cant make it a day through the gulf without getting torn to pieces in mid September, don't see how anything can towards the end of the month or October when all the negatives will be even more frequent.

The 5 from last season were most certainly not weak because of "horrible conditions", except for Karen. Barry, Fernand, and the TD had too little time over water, and were otherwise in pretty favorable environments. Even Ingrid would have been something stronger if it wasn't for her twin brother shearing her.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Could not disagree with you more. The weather in Baton Rouge (or in Gonzales a few miles south) has nothing to do with the Gulf. Come on now.

Really? So fronts dropping down into the northern gulf in the middle of September don't induce northerly wind shear in the gulf or bring down dry air that shreds systems like 92L?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The 5 from last season were most certainly not weak because of "horrible conditions", except for Karen. Barry, Fernand, and the TD had too little time over water, and were otherwise in pretty favorable environments. Even Ingrid would have been something stronger if it wasn't for her twin brother shearing her.

And the reason for that is because they were in the extreme southern BOC area. If they would have made it more north they to would have been shredded just like Karen. How easily some forget the invest that came out of the Caribbean that was being hyped so much in the middle of August to develop into a major hurricane day after day on here only to poof because of dry air and shear. Even NHC gave it high chances and could never do anything. Suffered the same fate as 92L.

[Siker]

The 5 from last season were most certainly not weak because of "horrible conditions", except for Karen. Barry, Fernand, and the TD had too little time over water, and were otherwise in pretty favorable environments. Even Ingrid would have been something stronger if it wasn't for her twin brother shearing her.

And the reason for that is because they were in the extreme southern BOC area. If they would have made it more north they to would have been shredded just like Karen. How easily some forget the invest that came out of the Caribbean that was being hyped so much in the middle of August to develop into a major hurricane day after day on here only to poof because of dry air and shear. Even NHC gave it high chances and could never do anything. Suffered the same fate as 92L.

Can you give me charts showing shear and dry air in the rest of the Gulf at the time of the BoC systems? Not that I don't believe you, but I'd like to see if conditions were really that awful in the Gulf from mid-August to Karen, a 6 week span.

[Ntxw]

Alright guys I think it's starting to get a little too intense in here. Everyone is entitled to their opinions. To some better than 2013 is good enough to others 2013 shouldn't be a bar, either way we have a potential major to track safely in Eduoard and end the long streak.

[Ptarmigan]

Edouard could very well be our first major hurricane of the season.

[blp]

After passing the mid point of the season, the Atlantic continues to look locked into the same pattern for the last 5 years. Major throughiness in the Atlantic and strong ridge protecting the Gulf. Looking at the long range no change in pattern for the next two weeks and then we will be in October. I normally look to the NW Carribean in October for homebrew but we may have a quiet October. I am looking at the developing El Nino to put a lid on the season soon. I think there will be a slight window begining of October with MJO and CCK wave passing but then it will likely wrap with the El Nino based shear taking over. Just my opinion.

[WPBWeather]

After passing the mid point of the season, the Atlantic continues to look locked into the same pattern for the last 5 years. Major throughiness in the Atlantic and strong ridge protecting the Gulf. Looking at the long range no change in pattern for the next two weeks and then we will be in October. I normally look to the NW Carribean in October for homebrew but we may have a quiet October. I am looking at the developing El Nino to put a lid on the season soon. I think there will be a slight window begining of October with MJO and CCK wave passing but then it will likely wrap with the El Nino based shear taking over. Just my opinion.

There is no El Nino yet. Maybe there will NOT be any El Nino this year. The "experts" have not been batting a thousand with their forecast this year on the Nino front. There may be other reasons for the activity level, but don't cite the Nino.

[WPBWeather]

Could not disagree with you more. The weather in Baton Rouge (or in Gonzales a few miles south) has nothing to do with the Gulf. Come on now.

Really? So fronts dropping down into the northern gulf in the middle of September don't induce northerly wind shear in the gulf or bring down dry air that shreds systems like 92L?

We seem to have a failure to communicate here. I've lived in both BR and NOLA (NOLA was better but that's another discussion). If you had cited NOLA weather and the Gulf, you would have been 55 miles more correct but still 100 miles too far north in LA.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

We must. I was using baton rouge as the reference cause most people on here have heard of that and not Gonzales or points south. If the front was strong enough to cleanly push through baton rouge chances are its strong enough to clear the coast for which it did. And of course make conditions even more hostile in the gulf, which they are. That was my point.