EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: Re:

#401 Postby Alyono » Sun Sep 14, 2014 7:55 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Alyono wrote:eye is distinct, but the could tops continue to warm

There may even be a chance that this goes down to a category 2 prior to landfall


So what? As long as if there is an eye, I can't see Dvorak (let alone CI) going lower than 5.5. Landfall at this point is within 6 hours away.


So what? It makes a significant difference in terms of intensity! That's what

Also, one thing I have found is that Dvorak often indicates too high of an intensity for weakening intense TCs. This is one modification to the Dvorak technique that was made at the firm I work for and we've found that this modification allows us to better estimate intensity vs conventional Dvorak
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: Re:

#402 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 7:58 pm

Alyono wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Alyono wrote:eye is distinct, but the could tops continue to warm

There may even be a chance that this goes down to a category 2 prior to landfall


So what? As long as if there is an eye, I can't see Dvorak (let alone CI) going lower than 5.5. Landfall at this point is within 6 hours away.


So what? It makes a significant difference in terms of intensity! That's what

Also, one thing I have found is that Dvorak often indicates too high of an intensity for weakening intense TCs. This is one modification to the Dvorak technique that was made at the firm I work for and we've found that this modification allows us to better estimate intensity vs conventional Dvorak


The CI values are held at 12 hours. I've long thought it should be 6. However, I can't see the NHC downgrading this to a 2 at the upcoming advisory.
0 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: EPAC: ODILE - Hurricane

#403 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 14, 2014 7:59 pm

TXPZ22 KNES 150035
TCSENP

A. 15E (ODILE)

B. 15/0000Z

C. 22.0N

D. 109.1W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/ATMS/SSMI

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS DEFINED BY AND EYE SCENE. BLACK SURROUNDING
GRAY SHADE YIELDING A EYE NUMBER OF 5.5 WITH AN OFF-WHITE EYE AND A BLACK
SURROUNDING RING GIVING AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +0.5 FOR A FINAL DT OF 6.0.
MET IS 6.0 BASED ON DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO. PT IS 6.0.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

14/2018Z 21.0N 108.7W ATMS
14/2136Z 21.4N 108.8W SSMI


...LIDDICK
0 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7182
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: EPAC: ODILE - Hurricane

#404 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 14, 2014 7:59 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Sanibel wrote:The small village of Cabo Pulmo on the east tip of Baja should get a rough ride tonight.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Cabo Pulmo is a national monument near Los Cabos. I'd expect it to make landfall a little W of that, near the Los Cabos/San Jose Del Cabos area.

As nice as the tourist areas are there is plenty of sub standard housing by the airport,,,was in cabo last may ...mostly desert but plenty of buildings to be damaged and vegetation to get destroyed... They will start rebuilding tuesday, way too many tourist dollars flying in 365 days a year..good luck to the residents, looks like a direct hit

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk
0 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: Re:

#405 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:06 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Alyono wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
So what? As long as if there is an eye, I can't see Dvorak (let alone CI) going lower than 5.5. Landfall at this point is within 6 hours away.


So what? It makes a significant difference in terms of intensity! That's what

Also, one thing I have found is that Dvorak often indicates too high of an intensity for weakening intense TCs. This is one modification to the Dvorak technique that was made at the firm I work for and we've found that this modification allows us to better estimate intensity vs conventional Dvorak


The CI values are held at 12 hours. I've long thought it should be 6. However, I can't see the NHC downgrading this to a 2 at the upcoming advisory.

There've also been tons of examples in the past indicate Dvorak often underestimates weakening TCs. So far I haven't seen any solid evidence for either case.
0 likes   

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2672
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

#406 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:10 pm

0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#407 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:11 pm

It was T5.5/6.0 for the previous two advisories, and now T6.0/6.0. I think it is holding intensity right now...I see no reason to adjust the 110 kt current intensity without Recon.

I think the peak intensity was at 1200Z (120 kt) but the pressure was higher then - about 935mb. It is not a one-to-one relationship, and structural changes have been ongoing this afternoon.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: Re:

#408 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:18 pm

supercane4867 wrote:There've also been tons of examples in the past indicate Dvorak often underestimates weakening TCs. So far I haven't seen any solid evidence for either case.


T-numbers or CI values?
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11161
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: EPAC: ODILE - Hurricane

#409 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:30 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Not use to tracking Pacific storms being for the Gulf Coast....only been stationed in Vegas for a year, would this going up the Gulf of Cali be more of a threat to Vegas concerning Flooding or less. Seems to be a different set-up with the possible cut off low from the upper trough with Norbert. Pacific is a different beast than the Gulf :double:



You stationed at Nellis AFB?

Cut-off lows generally provide more rain to SW TC's than upper-troughs. I know Octave 83 (AZ's costliest TC) was due to a cut-off partially. Granted, Olivia 82 (750 mil in damage) and Norbert 78 (CA's costliest TC) interacted with troughs.


Creech in Indian Springs but live in Summerlin close to Red rock...got caught on 95 in the flood last week from base coming home....never want to experience that again. Getting a little concerned adding the cut off low to the mix...a taste of Florida round 2 perhaps
0 likes   
Michael

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11161
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: EPAC: ODILE - Hurricane

#410 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:36 pm

CaneCurious wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Not use to tracking Pacific storms being for the Gulf Coast....only been stationed in Vegas for a year, would this going up the Gulf of Cali be more of a threat to Vegas concerning Flooding or less. Seems to be a different set-up with the possible cut off low from the upper trough with Norbert. Pacific is a different beast than the Gulf :double:


Good to see you on here Ivanhater!




You too! Hope everyone back home on the Gulf coast is ok and has a safe rest of the season!
0 likes   
Michael

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15980
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#411 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:37 pm

Making a beeline to Baja California.

Image
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15980
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: EPAC: ODILE - Hurricane

#412 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:40 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Not use to tracking Pacific storms being for the Gulf Coast....only been stationed in Vegas for a year, would this going up the Gulf of Cali be more of a threat to Vegas concerning Flooding or less. Seems to be a different set-up with the possible cut off low from the upper trough with Norbert. Pacific is a different beast than the Gulf :double:


I think the Euro's scenario would be the most worrying for you and Yellow Evan.

Keep your eyes peeled, and welcome to the Eastern Pacific :D! I doubt you ever thought you would have a Pacific storm affecting you.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: EPAC: ODILE - Hurricane

#413 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:40 pm

Going out of the cone

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re:

#414 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:40 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Making a beeline to Baja California.

Image


Landfalls looks 2-3 hours away.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11161
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: EPAC: ODILE - Hurricane

#415 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:43 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Not use to tracking Pacific storms being for the Gulf Coast....only been stationed in Vegas for a year, would this going up the Gulf of Cali be more of a threat to Vegas concerning Flooding or less. Seems to be a different set-up with the possible cut off low from the upper trough with Norbert. Pacific is a different beast than the Gulf :double:


I think the Euro's scenario would be the most worrying for you and Yellow Evan.

Keep your eyes peeled, and welcome to the Eastern Pacific :D! I doubt you ever thought you would have a Pacific storm affecting you.


So true..Might not be direct hits like back home but I'm learning the pacific storms can cause havoc in the desert South West.
0 likes   
Michael

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: ODILE - Hurricane

#416 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:44 pm

Kingarabian wrote:I think the Euro's scenario would be the most worrying for you and Yellow Evan.


I'm not too worried yet, but I do not have to drive in flooding roads (I take the bus to school). Like most of us here, I love the rain.
0 likes   

User avatar
Andrew92
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3247
Age: 41
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
Location: Phoenix, Arizona

#417 Postby Andrew92 » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:47 pm

I would love to see rain in my area, just as long as it's nothing like what Norbert gave us last weekend! Hoping likewise for you fellow Southwesterners.

-Andrew92
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#418 Postby RL3AO » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:47 pm

Well we've seen what happens to storms when they hit Mexico or Hispaniola. If this starts running up the Baja for any amount of time, it will weaken much quicker than the forecast and models show.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: ODILE - Hurricane

#419 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:50 pm

From the iCyclone facebook page

7 pm. Strong gusts tugging hard at the trees, which are waving wildly. Lobby of hotel whistling. Streets flooded. 996 mb. Core of hurricane closing in.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#420 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:52 pm

Landfall, if anywhere, looks to be on the eastern edge of the southern tip.
0 likes   


Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests