EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150854
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

Satellite data showed that Odile made landfall near Cabo San Lucas
around 0445 UTC. The estimated intensity of 110 kt at landfall
ties Odile with Olivia (1967) as the strongest hurricane to make
landfall in the satellite era in the state of Baja California Sur.
Since landfall, the eye of Odile has filled in conventional
satellite imagery, but the inner-core convection remains strong and
very symmetric. The initial wind speed has been reduced to 100 kt
for this advisory. The hurricane should steadily weaken during
the next few days while the circulation and inner-core continue to
interact with the Baja California peninsula. The latest NHC
forecast is close to the intensity consensus, and is lower than
the previous NHC advisory.

Odile is moving north-northwestward at 14 kt. The cyclone is
forecast to move northwestward to north-northwestward around the
western portion of a mid-level ridge over the southern United
States during the next couple of days. The forward speed of Odile
should slow down as the cyclone weakens and becomes a more shallow
system. In a few days, the low-level circulation is forecast to
turn northward, then northeastward, and dissipate over northern
Mexico or the northern portion of the Gulf of California in 4 to 5
days. The NHC track forecast lies between the latest GFS and
ECMWF models.

Since strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the
center of Odile, users should not focus on the exact forecast track.
Moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the
Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation
northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United States
during the next several days. This could result in heavy rains and
life-threatening flash flooding in those areas. Please see
information from your local weather office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 23.7N 110.4W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
12H 15/1800Z 25.1N 111.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
24H 16/0600Z 26.7N 112.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 16/1800Z 28.0N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/0600Z 29.0N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/0600Z 30.0N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 19/0600Z 30.7N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[jlauderdal]

I can't imagine the damage in the elevated areas of Cabo.

lots of newer construction in cabo will be fine

[Yellow Evan]

I can't imagine the damage in the elevated areas of Cabo.

lots of newer construction in cabo will be fine

Probs not good enough to match an 110 knot hurricane.

[NDG]

I can't imagine the damage in the elevated areas of Cabo.

lots of newer construction in cabo will be fine

Probs not good enough to match an 110 knot hurricane.

Agree, re-enforced concrete constructions on elevated area are the only one that can handle such force.

[WeatherGuesser]

1 > I don't have much sympathy for 'pros' standing in a lobby surrounded by glass. One of the first cautions in high winds is NOT to do that. The hotel should not have allowed anyone to remain in that area.

2 > An article on BBC mentions a home (shack) of wood and laminated cardboard. If that's typical of the shanty town areas, there won't be anything left.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 151152
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
500 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

...ODILE CONTINUES TO SLAM THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 110.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM W OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SANTA ROSALIA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO PUNTA EUGENIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS
PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH DECREASING FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ODILE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

ODILE IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. DURING THE PAST
HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 53 MPH...85 KM/H AND A GUST TO 89
MPH...143 KM/H...WERE REPORTED AT LA PAZ ON THE EAST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ADVANCE OF THE
HURRICANE CONDITIONS...AND OVER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN
MAINLAND MEXICO THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND SONORA.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[NDG]

Finally found one Mexican TV station talking about Odile on DirecTV, so they put on live this guy from the Mexican Met Center, CONAGUA, what a joke, all they do is pretty much read off what the NHC writes. Not much actual reports of damage, ...etc

[jlauderdal]

Finally found one Mexican TV station talking about Odile on DirecTV, so they put on live this guy from the Mexican Met Center, CONAGUA, what a joke, all they do is pretty much read off what the NHC writes. Not much actual reports of damage, ...etc

well TWC couldnt even manage to get themselves to cabo in time and seidel is sitting in mexico city...that is really amateurish cutting it so close you don't get in, they should have been there fri getting ready..listen to his video, the guy left atlanta yesterday duh and they waited so long the cabo flt was cancelled before he even left..http://www.weather.com/video/hurr ... 53608..twc was relying on some guy sitting at the hilton with his wife and of course Josh's great video because josh somehow managed to find the eye with alot less resources then TWC

once again, fb(icyclone), webcams and twitter rule the day over mainstream media

[CrazyC83]

Center seems to be back over water now in the bay near La Paz, or perhaps the open Gulf of California.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 15, 2014091512, , BEST, 0, 242N, 1110W, 90, 950, HU, 34, NEQ, 140, 180, 100, 120, 1006, 180, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
EP, 15, 2014091512, , BEST, 0, 242N, 1110W, 90, 950, HU, 50, NEQ, 80, 60, 60, 60, 1006, 180, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
EP, 15, 2014091512, , BEST, 0, 242N, 1110W, 90, 950, HU, 64, NEQ, 45, 45, 30, 30, 1006, 180, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,

As a mid-level Cat 2

[Yellow Evan]

Impact-wise, it is likely only the 1941 Cabo San Lucas hurricane is the only competition when it comes to impact in Cabo.

[tolakram]

live IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=25&lon=-111&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir4.pal&numframes=15

[tolakram]

Looking at the full 30 frames and speeding it up I would say the center is still over land but may enter the Gulf of California later today if it continues moving in the same direction.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=25&lon=-111&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir4.pal&numframes=30

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Any chance they may need hurricane warnings for Sonora?

[CrazyC83]

Any chance they may need hurricane warnings for Sonora?

Probably not a hurricane warning, but maybe a tropical storm watch soon.

[CrazyC83]

La Paz - largest city in Baja California Sur - likely just got the NE eyewall and strongest winds.

[supercane4867]

At this rate Odile entering Arizona as a tropical cyclone is a distinct possibility IMO

[CrazyC83]

Looks like - at least from my eye - it is making landfall again near Punta Coyote.

[CaneCurious]

Finally found one Mexican TV station talking about Odile on DirecTV, so they put on live this guy from the Mexican Met Center, CONAGUA, what a joke, all they do is pretty much read off what the NHC writes. Not much actual reports of damage, ...etc

well TWC couldnt even manage to get themselves to cabo in time and seidel is sitting in mexico city...that is really amateurish cutting it so close you don't get in, they should have been there fri getting ready..listen to his video, the guy left atlanta yesterday duh and they waited so long the cabo flt was cancelled before he even left..http://www.weather.com/video/hurr ... 53608..twc was relying on some guy sitting at the hilton with his wife and of course Josh's great video because josh somehow managed to find the eye with alot less resources then TWC

once again, fb(icyclone), webcams and twitter rule the day over mainstream media

I too an so disappointed in TWC. I wanted to put my fist through the television on Sunday morning as the girl doing the weather giggled as she talked about how strong Odile was. I was able to stay in contact with my Mom throughout the night as she and her two dogs were barricaded in the closet. The pressure was causing her great pain in her ears and head. At around 3:30am CDT, I was able to speak to my dad who is the GM of the Hilton Los Cabos. He told me that the only battle that he won was that all of the guests were still alive. The hotel is completely destroyed. Nothing is salvageable.

[euro6208]

Been busy with work and was very surprised to see a category 4 peak hurricane and make a beeling for baja as a category 3 hurricane! i forgot the last time this area got hit from a major hurricane, 4th major to hit baja in recorded history? those people are not used to this and i pray they are safe and sound...

the icyclone team that chased category 5 haiyan in the philippines must have some impressive videos. any videos?