ATL: EDOUARD - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

Recon found 115kt flight level winds in the NE quadrant. We should have Major Hurricane Edouard very soon

no, we wont.

The SFMR winds barely support category 2 intensity

[Hammy]

Recon found 115kt flight level winds in the NE quadrant. We should have Major Hurricane Edouard very soon

no, we wont.

The SFMR winds barely support category 2 intensity

I've seen it mentioned on here before that the NOAA planes have a low bias with the SFMR.

[supercane4867]

Recon found 115kt flight level winds in the NE quadrant. We should have Major Hurricane Edouard very soon

no, we wont.

The SFMR winds barely support category 2 intensity

Most MHs in the past have the peak intensity based mainly on flight level winds. SFMR winds are usually less impressive

[CrazyC83]

I would go with 95 kt based on that data. Yes, low bias perhaps with the SFMR, but enough to make it a major with 115 kt FL winds? Probably not quite yet.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KWBC 151645
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062014
A. 15/16:24:25Z
B. 27 deg 27 min N
055 deg 53 min W
C. 700 mb 2825 m
D. 92 kt
E. 343 deg 17 nm
F. 089 deg 103 kt
G. 346 deg 20 nm
H. 966 mb
I. 8 C / 3074 m
J. 16 C / 3059 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 WD06A EDOUARD OB 02
MAX FL WIND 103 KT 346 / 20 NM 16:19:38Z
MAX FL TEMP 16 C 340 / 5 NM FROM FL CNTR
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 225 / 19 KTS

That supports a 95 kt intensity.

[tolakram]

Latest, big picture.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 95kts.

AL, 06, 2014091518, , BEST, 0, 277N, 561W, 95, 965, HU

[Chris_in_Tampa]

From NOAA3. Eye at 17:23:44Z:



From NOAA2. Eye at 18:05Z:



Image Credit: NOAA-AOC

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Recon found 90-95kt surface winds and flight-level winds near 120kt. A dropsonde measured 146 mph winds at 1,483ft.

This should become a major hurricane later tonight.

[supercane4867]

TXNT21 KNES 151800
TCSNTL

A. 06L (EDOUARD)

B. 15/1745Z

C. 27.7N

D. 56.0W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=5.0 BASED ON MG RING WITH WMG EYE EMBEDDED BY
LG. PT=5.0. MET=5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[Hammy]

Wouldn't surprise me if we don't see any further intensification for the remainder of the day--this seems to be going through a cycle of intensifying in the morning, then staying steady and becoming slightly less organized overnight now since it formed (opposite timing of what one would expect). As a side note, the forecast advisories have gradually pushed back reaching Cat 3 about 18 hours over the last several advisories.

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KWBC 151830
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062014
A. 15/18:07:50Z
B. 27 deg 41 min N
056 deg 09 min W
C. 700 mb 2795 m
D. 83 kt
E. 082 deg 22 nm
F. 171 deg 102 kt
G. 082 deg 23 nm
H. 963 mb
I. 11 C / 2727 m
J. 17 C / 2730 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C35
N. 12345 / 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 WD06A EDOUARD OB 13
MAX FL WIND 103 KT 346 / 20 NM 16:19:38Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C 089 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 145 / 9 KTS

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It's been 690 days (including today) since the last major hurricane (Hurricane Sandy on October 25, 2012)--the 4th longest stretch on record. If Edouard fails to become a major hurricane, which is highly unlikely at this point, the October 26, 2012-Present stretch will rise to the 3rd longest on record in short order (Source).

[hurricanehunter69]

It's been 690 days (including today) since the last major hurricane (Hurricane Sandy on October 25, 2012)--the 4th longest stretch on record. If Edouard fails to become a major hurricane, which is highly unlikely at this point, the October 26, 2012-Present stretch will rise to the 3rd longest on record in short order (Source).

nice observation! Edouard becoming a major may be a fargone conclusion at this point. Takin bets on Edouard becoming a cat 4...? BTW, 2014 is batting .800 in Hurricane formation ( 4 out of 5 ). Much better, in comparison to the dreadful 2013 season.

[supercane4867]

...EDOUARD ALMOST A MAJOR HURRICANE...

5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 15
Location: 28.0°N 56.5°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 963 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014

Edouard is approaching category 3 strength. The eye of the
hurricane has become circular this afternoon, and deep convection
has increased in the eyewall. Flight-level and SFMR winds, as well
as dropsonde data from two NOAA reconnaissance aircraft, indicate
that maximum winds are near 95 kt and the minimum pressure has
decreased to 963 mb. Radar images from one of the NOAA aircraft
indicate that the convective pattern is quite symmetric.

The hurricane could strengthen some more during the next day or so
while both the atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain favorable.
After that time, however, cooler water, drier air, and a notable
increase in shear should cause Edouard to weaken at a steady pace.
The cyclone is forecast to transition to a post-tropical cyclone by
day 4 when it is expected to be over very cold water and interacting
with a frontal zone. The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end
of the model guidance for the next 36 hours, and then follows the
intensity model consensus, IVCN.

Edouard continues to move northwestward but at a slightly slower
pace than earlier, 305/11 kt. Water vapor imagery and satellite-
derived winds indicate that the western side of the ridge that has
been steering the hurricane is eroding in response to a trough over
the western Atlantic. This change in the large-scale pattern
should cause Edouard to turn northward during the next 24 hours.
By late Tuesday and Wednesday, the system is expected to accelerate
northeastward and then eastward when it becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. A slow down and a turn toward the
southeast is predicted by the end of the forecast period when the
weakening system is steered by the flow on the west side of a
deep-layer low over the northeast Atlantic. The NHC track forecast
has again been nudged to the left to come into better agreement with
the latest guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 28.0N 56.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 29.5N 57.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 31.6N 57.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 34.0N 55.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 36.8N 52.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 40.6N 43.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 40.5N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 20/1800Z 39.5N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It's been 690 days (including today) since the last major hurricane (Hurricane Sandy on October 25, 2012)--the 4th longest stretch on record. If Edouard fails to become a major hurricane, which is highly unlikely at this point, the October 26, 2012-Present stretch will rise to the 3rd longest on record in short order (Source).

nice observation! Edouard becoming a major may be a fargone conclusion at this point. Takin bets on Edouard becoming a cat 4...? BTW, 2014 is batting .800 in Hurricane formation ( 4 out of 5 ). Much better, in comparison to the dreadful 2013 season.

We'll see how strong Edouard is able to get. I've had a 105kt peak since the first advisory, but it wouldn't surprise me if this made a run at Category 4 intensity. The biggest factor slowing intensification at this point is the size of the cyclone; Edouard has a 35 nautical mile eye.

[Hammy]

It would certainly be nice to see this reach Cat 4 since it's well away from land--2011 was the last one, and I don't know if we've ever gone three consecutive years without one.

[supercane4867]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 955.9mb/104.6kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.5 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 30 km

Center Temp : +10.5C Cloud Region Temp : -59.0C

Scene Type : EYE

[Hammy]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 955.9mb/104.6kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#

Good chance of upgrade tonight based on that?