EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

Visible satellite images show that the center of Odile remains well
defined while inland over central Baja California Sur. An Air Force
plane flying over the Gulf of California recently measured surface
winds approaching hurricane strength. While the Dvorak technique is
not valid for cyclones over land, using the inland Decay rate yields
a current intensity estimate of 70 kt. It should be noted that
these highest winds are likely occurring over a very small area.
The official intensity forecast follows the Decay-SHIPS model
very closely and shows the system weakening to a tropical storm in
12 hours and to a depression in 48 hours. In 3-4 days, the system
should degenerate into a remnant low. This is similar to the
previous NHC wind speed forecast. Given the mountainous terrain of
the Baja California peninsula, the rate of weakening could be even
faster than anticipated.

The hurricane continues moving northwestward or 325/11 kt. A
mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico should steer Odile
northwestward to north-northwestward for the next day or so.
Afterwards, a low-level trough over southern California should
cause the weakening cyclone to turn northward and then
northeastward. The official forecast track is similar to the
previous one and to a consensus of the latest GFS and ECMWF
forecasts.

Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's
circulation over the next few days. This, along with the slow
motion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally
heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern
United States. Please see information from your local weather
office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 25.5N 111.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 26.8N 112.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 16/1800Z 28.0N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/0600Z 29.0N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1800Z 29.7N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 18/1800Z 30.8N 112.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 19/1800Z 31.5N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[zeehag]

found an update from la paz:::::
stolen from another cruiser who is in banderas bay, they received this from someone in la paz....
...
From Ken Mclaughlin on Bula:
Text from my friends on Maya in La Paz a few minutes ago.............
"Well we made it with a sleepless night, a small leak in the door and lost our American flag. They say town is closed down, had 123 mph in town and was a catagory 3, only the 2nd to hit land since 1967. Was crazy, it is still over 50+ mph and is suppose to let up around noon today but will see. Lost over 17 boats and missing people,sad. Allen lost all of his canvas, I went over this morning to check it all out, we were suppose to of gotten skirted but came right at us. No time to get everything down,. Raining like hell right now, no power in La Paz. Alot of damage. Were fine so far."

[Yellow Evan]

found an update from la paz:::::
stolen from another cruiser who is in banderas bay, they received this from someone in la paz....
...
From Ken Mclaughlin on Bula:
Text from my friends on Maya in La Paz a few minutes ago.............
"Well we made it with a sleepless night, a small leak in the door and lost our American flag. They say town is closed down, had 123 mph in town and was a catagory 3, only the 2nd to hit land since 1967. Was crazy, it is still over 50+ mph and is suppose to let up around noon today but will see. Lost over 17 boats and missing people,sad. Allen lost all of his canvas, I went over this morning to check it all out, we were suppose to of gotten skirted but came right at us. No time to get everything down,. Raining like hell right now, no power in La Paz. Alot of damage. Were fine so far."

Intresting about the missing ppl. So far there are quite remarkably been no deaths.

[zeehag]

i will add as i learn what is happening.. wont be too much or often as no services now...i have only one source for this at present, a schooner in banderas bay to whom this was addressed and who posted it on their fb page.

[beoumont]

1 > I don't have much sympathy for 'pros' standing in a lobby surrounded by glass. One of the first cautions in high winds is NOT to do that.

And common sense, I believe, dictates that as well.

[Kingarabian]

Surely was an incredible storm. NHC did its best to warn. Not so much you can for those that don't heed to warnings..

[supercane4867]

18z HWRF shows Odile crossing US border on wednesday and dissipates thereafter

[WeatherGuesser]

Could get fun in AZ and NM then.

[CrazyC83]

998? Given that structure it would likely still be a tropical storm at that time.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 152357
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
500 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

...ODILE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM SOON...
...FLOODING THREAT FROM HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 111.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM WNW OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SOUTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO...AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SOUTH OF SAN
EVARISTO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS ON
THE WEST COAST...AND FROM SAN EVARISTO TO SANTA ROSALIA ON THE
EAST COAST

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS
PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ODILE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...AND TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY
WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES
OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND SONORA.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[NDG]

What has made it to the main stream media is mostly the damage from the resorts but some of the reports from the local towns surrounding all of the resorts is of widespread damage with many people now with no roofs over their heads, many houses in these town surely not built to withstand a strong Cat 3 hurricane.

[WeatherGuesser]

many houses in these down surely not built to withstand a strong Cat 3 hurricane.

Many aren't built to withstand a good sneeze.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track downgrades to Tropical Storm.

EP, 15, 2014091600, , BEST, 0, 262N, 1119W, 60, 985, TS

[HurricaneBill]

Prior to Odile, the last major hurricane to make landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast was Hurricane Lane in 2006. Lane made landfall at peak intensity (110KT).

[CaneCurious]

I just heard from my parents at the Hilton Los Cabos and they said that the MX Naval statement said that Odile was a Category 4 with 180mph winds at landfall. How can that be so different from the NHC?

[TheProfessor]

180 mph wind gusts or sustain winds? Because 180 mph sustained winds would not be a Category 4 storm.

[TheStormExpert]

After seeing the furious force of powerful Cat.3 Odile in Mexico, here in the U.S. you have to be really grateful and lucky that we have been able to witness such a prolonged streak without a major hurricane strike in the U.S. Florida as well should be fortunate knowing the state has a long history of rememberable hurricanes that have caused destruction and fury (i.e. Andrew, Wilma, 1935 Labor Day hurricane, 1928 Okeechobee hurricane). Unfortunately we in the U.S. will most likely experience another U.S. major hurricane strike sooner rather than later. For now just hope that Mexico can recover as soon as possible, and that they do not get struck again this season.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

...ODILE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 112.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NW OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

[Alyono]

sure that was not 180 kmh?

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 160258
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 55 KT

The tropical cyclone continues to have a fairly well-organized
appearance on satellite imagery, but deep convection has been
thinning out. Applying a typical inland decay rate, the current
intensity is set at a rather uncertain 55 kt. Continued weakening
is forecast, and the system is likely to fall below tropical storm
strength in a day or so. The official wind speed forecast is
similar to the latest decay-SHIPS guidance and to the intensity
model consensus, and now shows Odile becoming a remnant low by 72
hours.

Odile's heading has shifted a little to the right, and the
initial motion estimate is 340/11 kt. A mid-level ridge to the
east of the cyclone should cause a turn toward the north in a day or
so, and a low- to mid-level trough near southern California is
likely to turn Odile or its remnant low north-northeastward in 2-3
days. The official track forecast is a little faster than the
previous one and is close to the latest dynamical model consensus
forecast, TVCE.

Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's
circulation over the next few days. This, along with the slow
motion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally
heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern
United States. Please see information from your local weather
office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 26.6N 112.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 27.8N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/0000Z 28.8N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1200Z 29.7N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 18/0000Z 30.6N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 19/0000Z 32.0N 111.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch