ATL: EDOUARD - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

First Major cane of 2014 season


BULLETIN
HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

...EDOUARD BECOMES THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 57.8W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1720 MI...2770 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES



HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

Visible satellite images show that Edouard has an impressive
satellite presentation, displaying a well-defined eye within the
central dense overcast. Edouard is upgraded to a major
hurricane based on a subjective Dvorak intensity estimate of 102 kt
from TAFB, an ADT estimate of 107 kt, and a recent SFMR surface
wind of 97 kt in the southwest eyewall. Edouard is the first major
hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, and the
first category 3 or greater hurricane in the basin since Sandy on
October 25, 2012.

Edouard is expected to reach its peak intensity within the next
12-18 hours while it remains in light shear conditions and over warm
waters. A combination of decreasing SSTs and increasing shear
should cause the hurricane to start a steady weakening by late
tomorrow. The intensity guidance is in good agreement, and the
latest NHC forecast is close to the previous NHC prediction and the
intensity consensus. Edouard is expected to become post-tropical by
day 4, but this transition could even occur around day 3 due to
rather cool waters in the cyclone's path.

The initial motion is gradually shifting to the right, now 345/11.
Edouard remains located to the west of the subtropical high and will
turn northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies
during the next 24-36 hours. An eastward acceleration is expected
by 48 hours, and the cyclone is forecast to turn southeastward and
slow down on days 4 and 5 when it approaches the west side of a
deep-layer low between Portugal and the Azores. The interaction of
the low and the tropical cyclone is causing the model guidance to
become more divergent at long range, with the GFS and the GFDL
models taking the cyclone well north of the Azores. However,
the GFS ensemble is much farther southwest than the deterministic
GFS, and is much more consistent with the previous forecast and the
bulk of the guidance. Thus, I have elected to leave the NHC
prediction virtually unchanged from the previous one, even though
the model consensus is a fair distance to the northeast of the new
official track at long range.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 31.1N 57.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 33.0N 57.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 35.7N 54.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 38.4N 50.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 40.3N 45.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 41.0N 38.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 40.0N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 21/1200Z 38.0N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake

[CrazyC83]

That SFMR reading is what locked it in. It's been a long time...

[wxman57]

The last Cat 3 or greater in the Atlantic Basin was Sandy south of Cuba in October of 2012.

[somethingfunny]

The last Cat 3 or greater in the Atlantic Basin was Sandy south of Cuba in October of 2012.

Time to update this and close up the loose end.

[SeGaBob]

This is a quality storm right here... I wouldn't mind seeing a couple more as long as they take a similar track as this one.

I had a feeling Hammy would be wrong with this storm from the beginning.

[CrazyC83]

2014 is becoming a season of quality storms. Not many developing, but most are making the most of their opportunities, kinda like the 2011 Pacific season.

[abajan]

I wonder if it will make a complete loop and get a second life as a tropical system!

[Chris_in_Tampa]

From NOAA2. Eye at 15:13Z:



Image Credit: NOAA-AOC

[SapphireSea]

All the instability has been present above 25N these past two years. Good to see a harmless major come out of this though! I wonder if this will continue to be the common pattern. I figure as soon as this ENSO ends, instability should return.

Edouard really got the shape of Andrew in the last 24 hours, very impressive. May still get to near Cat 4 perhaps?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

From NOAA2 at 16:07Z:



Image Credit: NOAA-AOC

[CrazyC83]

We would need some T6.0 readings from at least one agency to warrant higher though, since it seems to be running about 5 kt below Dvorak (satellite alone supports 105 kt right now).

[supercane4867]

At this point it's very unlikely that Edouard can strengthen further to attain a T6.0 as waters ahead becoming progressively cooler

[TheStormExpert]

It looks liked it peaked as its satellite presentation is becoming increasingly ragged. Hey, at least we squeezed out a major! Can't believe how challenging it has been for the Atlantic to produce Cat.3+ hurricanes over the past several years. I also predict that this will be the first and only major hurricane of this season.

[tolakram]

live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=32&lon=-58&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&map=none

[tolakram]

Looking at the RAMSDIS floater it appears shear from the south west has markedly increased over the past few hours.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier=AL062014&starting_image=2014AL06_1KMSRVIS_201409161145.GIF

[tolakram]

I'm calling it. Not only will Edouard will become the season's first major, it will become a Cat 4.

Got the first part right, now can it go for cat 4 before hitting cooler waters in a day or so?

[SeGaBob]

It's good it got this strong just so the pessimists get proven wrong...(not referring to any one person though)

[Time_Zone]

AL, 06, 2014091606, , BEST, 0, 296N, 572W, 95, 963, HU

Looks like no upgrade at 5am either, and the storm looks like it may be beginning an ERC (after which point it will be over steadily cooling waters) so I think Edouard missed it's opportunity to become a major hurricane. Euro no longer shows any further strengthening either.

Are you trolling? I've never seen anyone downplay a storm so much in my life.

Beautiful storm. So great to finally see a major in the Atlantic.

[Hammy]

AL, 06, 2014091606, , BEST, 0, 296N, 572W, 95, 963, HU

Looks like no upgrade at 5am either, and the storm looks like it may be beginning an ERC (after which point it will be over steadily cooling waters) so I think Edouard missed it's opportunity to become a major hurricane. Euro no longer shows any further strengthening either.

Are you trolling? I've never seen anyone downplay a storm so much in my life.

Beautiful storm. So great to finally see a major in the Atlantic.

Gordon 2012 was coming to mind increasingly, it looked much better on satellite yesterday afternoon than it did overnight, and with two of three agencies showing Cat 3 with no upgrade, it appeared they would dither again until it began weakening (I personally believe Gordon reached 100kts and have it listed as such with notes regarding the satellite estimates)

The fact that it looked better before the plane reached the eye, and that the pressure has is up with each pass, indicates that it may have in fact been stronger earlier and was indeed weakening already.

edit: as an aside, BT is already down to 95kts again, so this would likely not have been upgraded without recon.

[somethingfunny]

Did Gordon ever have recon? This year being so slow has provided alot of overflow for the hurricane hunter budget and that's probably given Edouard a leg up.