Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[LarryWx]

There is no El Nino yet. Maybe there will NOT be any El Nino this year. The "experts" have not been batting a thousand with their forecast this year on the Nino front. There may be other reasons for the activity level, but don't cite the Nino.

1) I strongly believe that it is finally about to start based on rapidly warming TAO and Cowan satellite based graph, westerly wind anomalies at surface in much of 3.4 now, warm subsurface, six weeks of solid -SOI, and models having predicted warming in Sep. going several months back. I'm expecting a weak to low end moderate Nino this fall/winter.

2) Despite no Nino up to this point, it has been quite Nino-like in the atmosphere with the solidly -SOI for six weeks. I've found a pretty strong correlation between SOI and the MDR activity of ~one month later. It doesn't have to wait til the Nino is official and SST anomalies are +0.5+ for it to become hostile in the MDR.

[Yellow Evan]

There is no El Nino yet.

The MEI rankings beg to differ.

[WPBWeather]

There is no El Nino yet.

The MEI rankings beg to differ.

Let's see what the facts show in the next few weeks. The prognosticators on this blog have not been too sure for the last seven or eight months.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm patiently waiting for the season to get going.....Moving into last part of September now, but I'll take people's word for it, that the season will pick up

[wxman57]

Looks, to me, that the season is winding down not starting up. GFS is indicating a significant cold front moving into the Gulf the last week of September. That would pretty much shut things down there. Could be another storm or two in the next 2-3 weeks, but that may be it.

[WPBWeather]

I'm patiently waiting for the season to get going.....Moving into last part of September now, but I'll take people's word for it, that the season will pick up

Move east and you can see it from here.

[psyclone]

I'm patiently waiting for the season to get going.....Moving into last part of September now, but I'll take people's word for it, that the season will pick up

I don't see most people saying that this year (last year, yes). Most expected a below normal season which is exactly what we've had. As el nino establishes itself the season usually shuts down early and it's frequently lights out for the late season hot bed of the western Caribbean. there's probably a below normal (but not 0) chance that something happens down there in late Sept/Oct. At this point I'm cheering el nino on. an active subtropical jet can mean cold season active weather for the Gulf coast/deep south and could bring about much improved rain chances for California.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I'm patiently waiting for the season to get going.....Moving into last part of September now, but I'll take people's word for it, that the season will pick up

Hope you have a whole lot of patience because it looks like youre going to be waiting for a very long time

[chaser1]

Looks, to me, that the season is winding down not starting up. GFS is indicating a significant cold front moving into the Gulf the last week of September. That would pretty much shut things down there. Could be another storm or two in the next 2-3 weeks, but that may be it.

I don't think this season is either starting up, winding down, and certainly not "cranking", LOL. Nor do I think that El Nino has been (or will be) the most singular characteristic responsible for this season ultimately ending as near normal and more robust (quality vs. quantity) than 2013. I agree with wxman that there could be another storm or 2 during the next 2-3 weeks, however I suppose reality really is 90% "perspective". Despite the GPS long range (now everyone is hugging the GFS because there are NO phantom storms being developed out to 300+ hours, LOL??), climatology might suggest otherwise and we could have 2 more named storms over the next couple weeks. While I cant make an argument that conditions are ideal through the MDR or Caribbean, I certainly would be comfortable enough to suggest that the 200mb westerlies aren't exactly "screaming" either. So whether or not a token moniker of "El Nino" is made official for the 2014 Atlantic season, lets also keep in perspective that one more named storm in September, perhaps 2 in October (of which I'm guessing one more major) and perhaps one more in November would be practically matching the number of named storms we've already had thus far. Furthermore, I'm not sure I've seen too many seasons come to an end due to an early cold front that might have dropped to S. Florida. Now, have a cold front sweep the Caribbean..... and that's another thing altogether. Look, most here anticipated a season with 8-10 storms and thats looking realistic. Eduardo proved that the Atlantic could produce a major this year. Someone show me the overwhelming reason why one additional Cat. 2 or 3 is so unlikely to develop over any 3-6 day period throughout the Caribbean, Gulf, or W. Atlantic during the next 2 months. I don't think Oceanic Heat content is working against such a possibility nor do I see upper level winds as basin wide factor. Instability? Perhaps, but not to an extent that a couple more hurricanes won't still form. Just like every year, a season is prejudged by how many, yet is ultimately labeled by how bad. So? Perhaps we end up with 9/6/2.... perhaps one less. Lets all collectively pat ourselves on the back for either being psychic or perhaps genius. I'll agree to call 2014 a "whimper" of an Atlantic Season if only 4 or less storms form, all out in the mid Atlantic with few or any additional reaching hurricane intensity. I'm not sure that I"m so cocky to suggest that on September 16, a day with an impressive looking Cat 3 hurricane spinning out in the Atlantic (albeit the N. Atlantic) that the season is nearly over or a dud.

Bottom line, call the season "starting", call it "ending".... just don't call it "over". I'm considering having a bumper sticker made, LOL: "Karma may be a Bit*h, but Climatology may be a Bigger One!"

We now return you to our regularly scheduled Atlantic Hurricane season. Please return your seats to an upright position, fasten your seat belts and continue to prepare for the possibility of turbulence

[Hammy]

I'm patiently waiting for the season to get going.....Moving into last part of September now, but I'll take people's word for it, that the season will pick up

Nobody was saying "wait till X for activity" this year, as it was expected to be below normal. My calls for patience were simply to wait until the MJO got around, around the middle of the month, as each one produced a hurricane. We have a major hurricane around the middle of the month, so I don't see where there are people using last year's "it'll pick up eventually".

[Stormcenter]

It will take several significant cold fronts to shut down the GOM.....still plenty warm waters down there. IMO

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm patiently waiting for the season to get going.....Moving into last part of September now, but I'll take people's word for it, that the season will pick up

I don't see most people saying that this year (last year, yes). Most expected a below normal season which is exactly what we've had. As el nino establishes itself the season usually shuts down early and it's frequently lights out for the late season hot bed of the western Caribbean. there's probably a below normal (but not 0) chance that something happens down there in late Sept/Oct. At this point I'm cheering el nino on. an active subtropical jet can mean cold season active weather for the Gulf coast/deep south and could bring about much improved rain chances for California.

But I heard VERY FEW if any people said that we would only make it letter "E" in 2014 which is a very distinct possibility at this point.... As WXMAN stating, MAYBE, JUST MAYBE we can squeak out letters "F" and "G" but maybe we won't.........Heck, I predicted only making it to "G" and people said I was nuts........All you have to do is look at the voting thread where people voted on the letter we would end with for the season. We all knew it would be below, but nobody thought it would be THIS BELOW normal...

[WeatherEmperor]

I'm patiently waiting for the season to get going.....Moving into last part of September now, but I'll take people's word for it, that the season will pick up

I don't see most people saying that this year (last year, yes). Most expected a below normal season which is exactly what we've had. As el nino establishes itself the season usually shuts down early and it's frequently lights out for the late season hot bed of the western Caribbean. there's probably a below normal (but not 0) chance that something happens down there in late Sept/Oct. At this point I'm cheering el nino on. an active subtropical jet can mean cold season active weather for the Gulf coast/deep south and could bring about much improved rain chances for California.

But I heard VERY FEW if any people said that we would only make it letter "E" in 2014 which is a very distinct possibility at this point.... As WXMAN stating, MAYBE, JUST MAYBE we can squeak out letters "F" and "G" but maybe we won't.........Heck, I predicted only making it to "G" and people said I was nuts........All you have to do is look at the voting thread where people voted on the letter we would end with for the season. We all knew it would be below, but nobody thought it would be THIS BELOW normal...

I agree with this. I predicted 9 named storms but this may end up being too high. I knew the season would be below normal but I must admit I had no clue it would be this much below normal.

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[ninel conde]

It will take several significant cold fronts to shut down the GOM.....still plenty warm waters down there. IMO

the GOM has been shut down all season except minor activity in the extreme south BOC.

[TheStormExpert]

It will take several significant cold fronts to shut down the GOM.....still plenty warm waters down there. IMO

the GOM has been shut down all season except minor activity in the extreme south BOC.

Add the Caribbean to that as well.

[Sanibel]

There's a front drifting off Georgia.

[TheStormExpert]

As of right now I'm predicting we will see 2-3 more named storms this season. There is a chance we could squeeze out another storm this month and if we don't odds are we will only see 1-2 more storms for October and November combined. Overall my thoughts are: 1 more storm this month, 1-2 in October, and 1 in November (only if October produces 1 named storm only).

[psyclone]

2014 may not have been impressive in terms of the total # of storms (thus far) but it has exceeded my expectations in the # of hurricanes ( I guessed 3) and it is not over yet. I remember the super late season storm Ida in 2009 long after I had written off the season. I'm not suggesting it's likely but it wouldn't be crazy to squeeze out 2 more hurricanes. should that happen the number of canes would exceed many preseason estimates and just one more would meet or exceed many estimates although total storm #s would be a little light. it may feel like it but it's not over until it's over (as the sleeper season of 2009 showed). Having said all of that...something is clearly amiss when the desert southwest gets more action out of the tropical season than the gulf coast. Go Arizona.

[Ntxw]

Edouard not only kept the Atlantic ACE going from being surpassed by 2013 to date. We are guaranteed out of a bottom 5 season depending on which source you use. 36 is the magic number to surpass 2013's seasonal total.

[ninel conde]

It will take several significant cold fronts to shut down the GOM.....still plenty warm waters down there. IMO

the GOM has been shut down all season except minor activity in the extreme south BOC.

Add the Caribbean to that as well.

i dont expect anything there this season.