Global model runs discussion

[blp]

GFS is showing some consistency with this potential Gulf storm.....? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... =&ps=model

Be careful with the GFS it has been really bad this year past 7 days. I would look to the Euro first then the Ukmet and GFS to predict development.

[asd123]

GFS is showing some consistency with this potential Gulf storm.....? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... =&ps=model

Be careful with the GFS it has been really bad this year past 7 days. I would look to the Euro first then the Ukmet and GFS to predict development.

Yes, blp you're absolutely right. Anything beyond 7 days is basically just entertainment. Just tell hurricanehunter69 about earlier this summer when the GFS was consistently showing storms in the long range.

[blp]

GFS is showing some consistency with this potential Gulf storm.....? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... =&ps=model

Be careful with the GFS it has been really bad this year past 7 days. I would look to the Euro first then the Ukmet and GFS to predict development.

Yes, blp you're absolutely right. Anything beyond 7 days is basically just entertainment. Just tell hurricanehunter69 about earlier this summer when the GFS was consistently showing storms in the long range.

Yea, I don't know what happened with the GFS this year. It has taken a step back IMO. The phantom action earlier in the year was embarrassing but that did not totally surprise since I have seen phantoms in years past in that area of the basin but how badly it has done with the waves off Africa is shocking. We would have had like ten storms if you count all the phantoms it has developed coming off Africa. It has been rolling Tropical Storms right off the coast with no consideration for the hostile conditions it seems. Interesting to see how it does post season review.

[jlauderdal]

[quote="hurricanehunter69"]GFS is showing some consistency with this potential Gulf storm.....? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... =&ps=model

Be careful with the GFS it has been really bad this year past 7 days. I would look to the Euro first then the Ukmet and GFS to predict development.

Yes, blp you're absolutely right. Anything beyond 7 days is basically just entertainment. Just tell hurricanehunter69 about earlier this summer when the GFS was consistently showing storms in the long range.

Yea, I don't know what happened with the GFS this year. It has taken a step back IMO. The phantom action earlier in the year was embarrassing but that did not totally surprise since I have seen phantoms in years past in that area of the basin but how badly it has done with the waves off Africa is shocking. We would have had like ten storms if you count all the phantoms it has developed coming off Africa. It has been rolling Tropical Storms right off the coast with no consideration for the hostile conditions it seems. Interesting to see how it does post season review.[/quote]
its been especially poor since the upgrade...the euro is way ahead now

[Yellow Evan]

GFS seems to be overdoing the upcoming MJO pulse.

[tolakram]

I thought we discussed GFS vs Euro to death already. GFS errors on the side of development, Euro errors on the other side. I'm not sure either one has changed much. In a slow years the GFS will have more false positives and in active years the Euro will miss more.

Look at Eduardo. GFS continually forecast development, held it steady, and then was the first to predict a strong hurricane. Euro either failed to develop it or once developed insisted on dissipation up until just a few days ago. That is typical of the performance of both models. The euro was right about dissipation or lack of development for previous waves, while GFS was blowing up just about everything that hit the water.

[blp]

I thought we discussed GFS vs Euro to death already. GFS errors on the side of development, Euro errors on the other side. I'm not sure either one has changed much. In a slow years the GFS will have more false positives and in active years the Euro will miss more.

Look at Eduardo. GFS continually forecast development, held it steady, and then was the first to predict a strong hurricane. Euro either failed to develop it or once developed insisted on dissipation up until just a few days ago. That is typical of the performance of both models. The euro was right about dissipation or lack of development for previous waves, while GFS was blowing up just about everything that hit the water.

I certainly don't want to debate the two models. I think both are good are certain things and overall are still the best models we have but this year I have noticied more false postives than normal with the GFS especially with the Atlantic waves. Even last year which was also a slow year I did not see nearly as many false positives as this year from the GFS. I was pointing out my opinion because it is a little frustrating to look at the GFS lately to try to guage future development.

[caneman]

I thought we discussed GFS vs Euro to death already. GFS errors on the side of development, Euro errors on the other side. I'm not sure either one has changed much. In a slow years the GFS will have more false positives and in active years the Euro will miss more.

Look at Eduardo. GFS continually forecast development, held it steady, and then was the first to predict a strong hurricane. Euro either failed to develop it or once developed insisted on dissipation up until just a few days ago. That is typical of the performance of both models. The euro was right about dissipation or lack of development for previous waves, while GFS was blowing up just about everything that hit the water.

A voice of reason. Much appreciated. I'm not sure that any model is looking particularly stellar this year.. Anyone have a link to model performance for this year so far? Not that it really matters as this years appears to be very inactive.

[tolakram]

I certainly don't want to debate the two models. I think both are good are certain things and overall are still the best models we have but this year I have noticied more false postives than normal with the GFS especially with the Atlantic waves. Even last year which was also a slow year I did not see nearly as many false positives as this year from the GFS. I was pointing out my opinion because it is a little frustrating to look at the GFS lately to try to guage future development.

I look at that as a sign of conditions more than anything else. The GFS, for whatever reason, failed to see the horrid conditions in the deep tropics. It's almost as if both models are ignoring some important parameter and happily going on doing their thing. It seems to me the GFS certainly needs more weight applied to low and mid level humidity values.

All that said I don't think there is any argument the euro usually does much better than the GFS once a system is established.

[tropicwatch]

Things are quiet on the model front. I guess the models aren't doing anything with this current front stalling out which is leaving moisture and some vorticity in the GOM and off the southeast coast!?

[Big O]

Things are quiet on the model front. I guess the models aren't doing anything with this current front stalling out which is leaving moisture and some vorticity in the GOM and off the southeast coast!?

Not according to the extremely long-range GFS (6z). It has what appears to be a major hurricane in west-central GOM at the end of its run (probably heading north or even northeast). I know it is in la-la land and it is the GFS, but to say things are quiet on the model front is not entirely accurate. My guess is that no one is posting this given the low likelihood of it verifying. However, JB says he "would be surprised" if something doesn't develop in the GOM given the pattern we are transitioning into (HP over eastern US and lowering heights in the Gulf, with a trough over the central CONUS). We shall see.

[wxman57]

The day I start believing the 384hr GFS TC forecast is the day I start believing the Canadian model's development forecast using the NOGAPS track.

[Ntxw]

A whole lot of shear ripping across the gulf and Carib on the models, these fronts can spin things up but they also bring shear with them. Low shear north of the Antilles and East of the Bahamas.

[Big O]

The day I start believing the 384hr GFS TC forecast is the day I start believing the Canadian model's development forecast using the NOGAPS track.

Agreed. I was just pointing out that there is "some" model TC action, not claiming that the long-range GFS was going to verify.

[blp]

With the GFS phantom storms you will notice that cyclogensis usually never gets started below the 192hrs which is the higher resolution portion of the run. This happens frequently with the GFS during the early and later months and in that region specifically. I will pay attention once the Euro shows something and it gets into the higher resolution portion of the run.

[Steve H.]

Just for kix, the Euro shows low pressure in the Bahamas underneath a ridge to the north at the end of it's 12z run.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Alyono]

GFS may not be totally off base this time

EC has a low in the Gulf at day 10 as well

[Alyono]

and the 18Z drops any GOM system

IF anything were to form, I'd expect only a weak low

[jlauderdal]

GFS may not be totally off base this time

EC has a low in the Gulf at day 10 as well

If gfs has euro support then it has a chance

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[jlauderdal]

Just for kix, the Euro shows low pressure in the Bahamas underneath a ridge to the north at the end of it's 12z run.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If its the euro then take notice

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