Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[floridasun78]

oct and nov we seem alot system in carribbean you wrong we wont any thing in carribbean look at history hurr you see carribbean active in those months

[TheStormExpert]

the GOM has been shut down all season except minor activity in the extreme south BOC.

Add the Caribbean to that as well.

i dont expect anything there this season.

That's what I'm saying, the Caribbean has been shut down all season due to record high wind shear, plus dry air creeping in from the MDR.

[StarmanHDB]

HMMMMMMMM....

Although I'm definitely not hoping for it, I'm still thinking that we're going to get some sort of late-season, Wilma-type of set up where a TC will form in the SW Caribbean Sea, move north into the GOM and get swept up across the Gulf by a deep frontal system into southern Florida. I know that I have absolutely no data supporting my "forecast", but my Spider Senses are tingling!

[Steve820]

HMMMMMMMM....

Although I'm definitely not hoping for it, I'm still thinking that we're going to get some sort of late-season, Wilma-type of set up where a TC will form in the SW Caribbean Sea, move north into the GOM and get swept up across the Gulf by a deep frontal system into southern Florida. I know that I have absolutely no data supporting my "forecast", but my Spider Senses are tingling!

I also have that feeling! We could actually possibly see something very powerful in the western Caribbean next month. I think this future system will be named either "Gonzalo" or "Hanna".

[MGC]

What a difference a decade makes....just ten short years ago, Florida was going thru hurricane mania. Glad things are quiet this September, hope it stays that way. We are only a week off the traditional peak of the hurricane season so I would not let your guard down yet. Looking forward to that front 57 is talking about. September has been quite warm here on the Mississippi Coast. Would not be surprised to see 2-3 more named storms.....MGC

[TheStormExpert]

HMMMMMMMM....

Although I'm definitely not hoping for it, I'm still thinking that we're going to get some sort of late-season, Wilma-type of set up where a TC will form in the SW Caribbean Sea, move north into the GOM and get swept up across the Gulf by a deep frontal system into southern Florida. I know that I have absolutely no data supporting my "forecast", but my Spider Senses are tingling!

I also have that feeling! We could actually possibly see something very powerful in the western Caribbean next month. I think this future system will be named either "Gonzalo" or "Hanna".

My senses for a system like that have been tingling since the 2010 season and nothing like that has happened yet. IMO this season isn't the year for powerful systems as such, especially when all of the hurricanes this season have peaked well north of 20N.

[StarmanHDB]

HMMMMMMMM....

Although I'm definitely not hoping for it, I'm still thinking that we're going to get some sort of late-season, Wilma-type of set up where a TC will form in the SW Caribbean Sea, move north into the GOM and get swept up across the Gulf by a deep frontal system into southern Florida. I know that I have absolutely no data supporting my "forecast", but my Spider Senses are tingling!

I also have that feeling! We could actually possibly see something very powerful in the western Caribbean next month. I think this future system will be named either "Gonzalo" or "Hanna".

My senses for a system like that have been tingling since the 2010 season and nothing like that has happened yet. IMO this season isn't the year for powerful systems as such, especially when all of the hurricanes this season have peaked well north of 20N.

Hey T.S.E.,

Just to clarify, while we are all aware of how the North Atlantic Basin's TC's have developed thus far, as the title of this thread states, we are referring to the remainder of the season. That stated, beginning in mid to late September, climatology clearly shifts the region of development away from African T-waves and Cape Verde systems to the Caribbean, thus my post on a Wilma-type of set up. Again, while I am in no way any type of expert meteorologist, my mind's eye is seeing some type of development similar to that of Wilma in the very near future. Sure, anyone who remotely knows climatology can say the same thing with each passing year, but this is the first time I am coming forth with such a "forecast". I can't explain where this is coming from, but I can't deny it. Either way, I hope I'm wrong. We shall soon find out.

[Ntxw]

We probably will get a storm or two the next 3-4 weeks. My money isn't in the Caribbean, in 2014 it is the holy land of Shear. Every model persists it for as long as they go there. I would bet somewhere in the Bermuda triangle, they have shear being below normal in that region.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[SFLcane]

Other then some weak development of a front near home i would say season is just about over. Major hurricane streak continues. Amazing e-pac year

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I agree. All the long range model talk about a gulf system in 10 days is just a waste of air. Models will drop it before long and will be a long forgotten memory.

[Sanibel]

I'm not seeing any change in behavior or pattern as of now. It is still negative with a hostile atmosphere and convection doesn't seem to root. Edouard just got lucky with a favorable spot.

[Ntxw]

Heading into the final stretch of September which ends in about a week and a half, we ended our major drought this month. CSU so far looks good with below average for the last stretch of this month.

-SOI prolonged stretch seems to be ushering in an atmospheric response typically seen during El Nino's later in the season.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like the Gulf of Mexico is shutting down for the season as the subtropical jet is starting to establish itself as usual in an El Niño year.

[WPBWeather]

Looks like the Gulf of Mexico is shutting down for the season as the subtropical jet is starting to establish itself as usual in an El Niño year.

No, it really doesn't look like that. We should wait to see if the el nino (small caps) even appears before we blame it for things

[Hammy]

I'll say one (maybe two) more this month, one more next month (possibly another hurricane) and maybe one in November. I'm personally thinking we'll finish near or slightly higher than 1993 (which ended with 8/4/1)

And I'm noticing a pattern here, as soon as a storm dissipates (or is about to) the "no more storms this season" talk returns immediately, yet some of these posters are nowhere to be found when the next system forms a few weeks later...

[Alyono]

1 or 2 more storms at most is what I am thinking. However, the one or two that form could be fairly intense

[WPBWeather]

I'll say one (maybe two) more this month, one more next month (possibly another hurricane) and maybe one in November. I'm personally thinking we'll finish near or slightly higher than 1993 (which ended with 8/4/1)

And I'm noticing a pattern here, as soon as a storm dissipates (or is about to) the "no more storms this season" talk returns immediately, yet some of these posters are nowhere to be found when the next system forms a few weeks later...

You know Hammy, I noticed the same thing (lack of "no no no" posters) when storms are around.

[TheStormExpert]

1 or 2 more storms at most is what I am thinking. However, the one or two that form could be fairly intense

What are your thoughts on where they could potentially form?

[StarmanHDB]

I'll say one (maybe two) more this month, one more next month (possibly another hurricane) and maybe one in November. I'm personally thinking we'll finish near or slightly higher than 1993 (which ended with 8/4/1)

And I'm noticing a pattern here, as soon as a storm dissipates (or is about to) the "no more storms this season" talk returns immediately, yet some of these posters are nowhere to be found when the next system forms a few weeks later...

You know Hammy, I noticed the same thing (lack of "no no no" posters) when storms are around.

Yes, I've noticed this too and it's always with the same posters. I've also noticed that based on the general tone of their posts they are often the same people who routinely ignore any and all opinions, forecasts, data, and facts which are presented by S2K's various pro mets. Sure, it's exciting seeing a beautiful TC present itself, but reason dictates that despite -removed-, science can't be ignored (even when it disappoints).

Anyway, I'm still sticking to my highly unscientific opinion that the Caribbean will see a Wilma-type of setup in the very near future. We'll soon see!

[Sanibel]

There's a slight uptick in convection right now. Straight probability would tell you there's a greater chance of storms happening in the late season simply because statistics make it likely in a season with few storms in the peak season.