Tropical Wave SE of CV Islands (Is Invest 95L)

[lordkev]

06Z GFS seems to develop a low from this at 84hrs...makes it to around 40W @ 228hrs before dissipating.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Wednesday and produce an area of low pressure over the far eastern
Atlantic. Conditions appear conducive for some development of this
system by late this week while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Hammy]

I see the hurricane center is being more cautious with the %'s this time (so far) after several 40%'s that failed to develop.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Wednesday and produce an area of low pressure over the far eastern
Atlantic. Conditions appear conducive for some slow development
of this system by late this week while it moves westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Siker]

I see the hurricane center is being more cautious with the %'s this time (so far) after several 40%'s that failed to develop.

Well, to be fair, this one doesn't have nearly as aggressive model support as the last few.

[abajan]

In the latest TWO (2 AM), the system which is soon to exit the Africa is now expected to move west instead of instead of "west or west-northwest". To quote:

A weak tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of
Africa later today. Development of this system is not expected
through Thursday, and any development through the weekend is
expected to be slow to occur while the system moves westward at 10
to 15 mph over the eastern Atlantic.

Just wondering why the change.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Edouard, located several hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda.

Showers and thunderstorms near the west coast of Africa are
associated with a tropical wave that is forecast to move offshore
later today. Development of this system is not anticipated through
Thursday, and any development through the weekend is expected to be
slow to occur while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over
the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Abajan,it looks like the high to the north may be stronger and that is why the west movement they have.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the west
coast of Africa is associated with a tropical wave. Some slow
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while the disturbance moves west-northwestward or northwestward at
about 10 mph over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[lordkev]

Seems to now be expected to take a more northwestwardly track.

[weatherfanatic]

As I understand it that cone on these images are not its track but the area we need to watch for development, so just because it shows a NW cone does not mean it will move that way.

[Steve820]

This might be a potential candidate for Fay. I hope it does become something!

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the far
eastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[lordkev]

As I understand it that cone on these images are not its track but the area we need to watch for development, so just because it shows a NW cone does not mean it will move that way.

I have read that before too, but for a system to develop somewhere, it would have to be in that area. Seems like by proxy if the whole shaded area is pointed towards the northwest, that's the direction it's heading, no?

[abajan]

As I understand it that cone on these images are not its track but the area we need to watch for development, so just because it shows a NW cone does not mean it will move that way.

I have read that before too, but for a system to develop somewhere, it would have to be in that area. Seems like by proxy if the whole shaded area is pointed towards the northwest, that's the direction it's heading, no?

At any rate, that's what the TWO states:

... while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the far
eastern Atlantic Ocean. ...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Edouard, located about 900 miles west of the western Azores.

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure system, is
located just off of the west coast of Africa. Although shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, environmental conditions
are expected to be at least marginally conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
slowly west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

This is Invest 95L. Go to active storms/invests forum.

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