ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2014091618, , BEST, 0, 98N, 135W, 20, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 100, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2014091700, , BEST, 0, 99N, 144W, 20, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 100, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2014091706, , BEST, 0, 100N, 152W, 20, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 100, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2014091712, , BEST, 0, 101N, 160W, 20, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 100, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2014091718, , BEST, 0, 103N, 167W, 20, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 100, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2014091800, , BEST, 0, 105N, 174W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 100, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2014091806, , BEST, 0, 107N, 180W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116751&hilit=&start=0

[wxman57]

Ah, finally something exciting to discuss here! This should be the hot topic in the coming weeks.

Development unlikely... next!

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure system, is
located just off of the west coast of Africa. Although shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, environmental conditions
are expected to be at least marginally conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
slowly west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO: The interest for the invest will not rise with this outlook.

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located just off of the west coast of Africa. Shower and
thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, and any development
of this system should be slow to occur while it moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward over the eastern tropical
Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[ouragans]

Another waisted Invest. One more this year, like most of them...

[jlauderdal]

8 PM TWO: The interest for the invest will not rise with this outlook.

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located just off of the west coast of Africa. Shower and
thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, and any development
of this system should be slow to occur while it moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward over the eastern tropical
Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

those percentages remind me of last weeks 92l that came ashore in palm beach.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Ah, finally something exciting to discuss here! This should be the hot topic in the coming weeks.

Development unlikely... next!

Thought the hot topic was the hurricane the gfs shows hitting SE LA in as little as 10 days

Sorry just had to get that in. Think 95l will suffer the same fate as all the others this year unless it happens to get far enough north and finds a favorable spot for a few days like Edouard did.

[euro6208]

I'm going to be the most bullish in here and say this won't develop due to dry air or shear

[HurricaneBelle]

Up to 20/30%:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association
with a broad area of low pressure located between the west coast of
Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. Some development of this system
is possible over the next few days before upper-level winds become
less conducive. This low is expected to move slowly west-
northwestward or northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to
portions of the Cape Verde Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

As wxman57 said,next!

2 PM TWO:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of
low pressure located a couple hundred miles southeast of the Cape
Verde Islands has changed little in organization this morning.
While some development of this system is possible during the next
day or two, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive
after that time. This low should move generally northwestward and
could bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Cape Verde Islands
this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N20W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 26N76W TO 25N76W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING AT APPROXIMATELY 05-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 18W-24W.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad
area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles southeast of the
Cape Verde Islands. While some development of this system is
possible during the next day or two, upper-level winds are expected
to become less conducive after that time. This low should move
generally northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to portions
of the Cape Verde Islands this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated in
association with an elongated area of low pressure located a couple
hundred miles east-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. However,
development of this system is becoming less likely due to
increasingly unfavorable upper-level winds. This low should move
generally northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to portions
of the Cape Verde Islands later this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
13N. THE WAVE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST 12
HOURS OR SO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE...RELATED TO THE TROPICAL
WAVE...THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AND THE MONSOON
TROUGH...FROM 6N TO 17N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

[ConvergenceZone]

Ah, finally something exciting to discuss here! This should be the hot topic in the coming weeks.

Development unlikely... next!

Maybe there won't be a next........ BRING ON 2015!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2014 = PATHETIC!

[abajan]

Ah, finally something exciting to discuss here! This should be the hot topic in the coming weeks.

Development unlikely... next!

Maybe there won't be a next........ BRING ON 2015!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2014 = PATHETIC!

I won't let my guard down just yet because October has had some powerful hurricanes. There was the Great Hurricane of 1780 which devastated many parts of the Caribbean. And who could forget Mitch, Wilma and a host of other monsters?

[Gustywind]

Ah, finally something exciting to discuss here! This should be the hot topic in the coming weeks.

Development unlikely... next!

Maybe there won't be a next........ BRING ON 2015!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2014 = PATHETIC!

I won't let my guard down just yet because October has had some powerful hurricanes. There was the Great Hurricane of 1780 which devastated many parts of the Caribbean. And who could forget Mitch, Wilma and a host of other monsters?

Right good point! Agree with you. Too early for that, we should be focused on every twave even if the peak the of this season does not seem to be an active peak. Mother nature has always surprised in store, remember that.

[fci]

8 PM TWO: The interest for the invest will not rise with this outlook.

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located just off of the west coast of Africa. Shower and
thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, and any development
of this system should be slow to occur while it moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward over the eastern tropical
Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

those percentages remind me of last weeks 92l that came ashore in palm beach.

You laugh.
We are still recovering from 92L.
Yet to rake up the 7 leaves on my deck dislodged from out neighbor's tree....

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
cloudiness and showers near and to the southeast of the Cape Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions do not appear conducive for
development, and tropical cyclone formation is not likely.
However, the low is forecast to move slowly northwestward and could
bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Cape Verde Islands during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[jlauderdal]

8 PM TWO: The interest for the invest will not rise with this outlook.

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located just off of the west coast of Africa. Shower and
thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, and any development
of this system should be slow to occur while it moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward over the eastern tropical
Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

those percentages remind me of last weeks 92l that came ashore in palm beach.

You laugh.
We are still recovering from 92L.
Yet to rake up the 7 leaves on my deck dislodged from out neighbor's tree....

be careful..post storm cleanup is more dangerous then the storm

since we are talking cleanup, cabo has a real mess...lots of new construction there but obviousely not up to miami dade hurricane code