WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Tropical Storm

[euro6208]

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2014/09/17/fung-wong-mario-brings-heavy-rains-to-the-philippines-and-threatens-okinawa/

Latest update on Fung-Wong...

[euro6208]

12Z Best Track...

16W FUNG-WONG 140918 0600 15.2N 127.1E WPAC 35 996

[euro6208]

Latest JTWC warning

Tropical storm winds in pink



closeup of landfall area...

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 284 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
ACROSS THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND HAS BUILDING CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE EXPOSED NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM A
PREVIOUS ASCAT PASS AS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO
35 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED TO MODERATE
LEVELS (10 TO 20 KNOTS) AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG. TS
FUNG-WONG IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE TRACK HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MODELS HAVE COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT
IN THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
B. THROUGH THE NEXT DAY, TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR THAT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND BREAK AS A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE NORTH. AS THE STR
BREAKS DOWN, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN UNDER THE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKER RIDGE. WHILE THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF INTENSIFICATION AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE
PROXIMITY OF TS 16W TO THE NORTHEAST COAST OF LUZON WILL POTENTIALLY
LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. ALSO, THROUGH TAU 48 AND 72, THE PROXIMITY TO
THE TAIWANESE COAST COULD ALSO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 WITH ALL SHOWING THE
SYSTEM ENTERING THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND PROCEEDING POLEWARD,
ALTHOUGH AT A SLOWER TRANSLATIONAL SPEED.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL RE-
ORIENT THE STR DRIVING FUNG-WONG NORTHEASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE
SYSTEM GAINS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND TRACKS OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED WITH MOST
SHOWING A BROAD RECURVE SCENARIO ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A LARGE
VARIANCE IN TRANSLATIONAL SPEED AFTER TAU 72 AS MODELS DISAGREE ON
HOW DEEP THE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND HOW THE TROUGH AFFECTS THE STR.
NAVGEM AND GFDN REMAIN OUTLIERS AS THEY AMPLIFY THE RIDGE AND DRIVE
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS MAINLAND CHINA. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE TRACK IN THE EXTENDED TAUS DUE TO
THE ORIENTATION OF THE STR AND HOW DEEP THE TROUGH DEVELOPS, THERE
IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2014/09/18/tropical-storm-fung-wong-mario-rainfall-threat-thursday-pm-update/

Latest Update...

[wxman57]

Euro continues to forecast a more westerly track - right into Taiwan as a typhoon. JTWC may be adjusting the track westward as well.

[dhoeze]

PAGASA Site on rainfall is down.
anyone has access to rainfall data here in Metro Manila?

[phwxenthusiast]

try climatex.ph

[dhoeze]

website stopped reporting mm of rainfall since 7.55am. thanks.

[dexterlabio]

PAGASA Science Garden in Quezon City reported an accumulated rainfall of 230mm from 2am to 8am this morning. That is according to the weather report.

[dhoeze]

thanks guys.

Any site where we can see the forecast for Metro Manila for the next hours

[dexterlabio]

^all PAGASA radar sites that Im trying to access are down. :/ But right now it looks like we're having an hour of rain break..however, the sky is getting very dark here in Quezon City.

[euro6208]

Making landfall with winds of 40 knots!

WDPN32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS BECOME PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY
DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. A 182318z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
AND FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR AND MSI LOOPS AND THE SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO
40 KTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND DOTSTAR SOUNDINGS.
UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT
AS NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED TO MODERATE
LEVELS (25 TO 30 KNOTS) AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG. TS
FUNG-WONG IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE NORTHWEST, GRAZING THE NORTHERN LUZON COAST, UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE STR TO THE EAST. A RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA
WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND WEAKEN, ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO TRACK TO THE NORTH AS THE STR TO THE EAST REORIENTS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN THROUGH TAU
36. HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 36, MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT TWO SCENARIOS.
THE NAVGEM, HWRF AND GFDN SOLUTIONS (THE WESTWARD GROUPING) SHOW THE
SYSTEM TURNING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL IN TAIWAN. THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS
A BUILDING HIGH TRANSITING FROM CENTRAL CHINA INTO THE YELLOW SEA,
WHICH FORCES THE SYSTEM WESTWARD ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE
JENS, JGSM AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS (THE NORTHWARD GROUPING) ALSO
SHOW THE CYCLONE TRACKING THROUGH TAIWAN, BUT CONTINUING TO TRACK
NORTH OF THE ISLAND INTO THE WESTERN EAST CHINA SEA. DUE TO THIS
BIFURCATION IN THE FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK BEYOND TAU 48.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, MODELS DEPICT THE TWO SEPARATE SCENARIOS
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WITH THE WESTWARD GROUPING RUNNING THE SYSTEM
INTO CHINA NEAR SHANGHAI BEFORE THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE WESTERLY
JET. THE MODELS IN THIS GROUPING AGREE ON A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE
PERSISTENT JET FEATURE AROUND TAU 120. HOWEVER, THE NORTHWARD MODEL
GROUPING DEPICTS FUNG-WONG TURNING AROUND A WEAKER STR INTO THE
WESTERLIES AROUND TAU 96 AND STARTING TO EMBED IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE NORTHWARD GROUPING, WHICH INDICATES SLOWING
TRACK SPEED IN THE LATER TAUS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
UNDER THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN THE SPEED OF THE TRACK IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

18Z GFS has a track that takes this over some major population areas...over taiwan, over eastern china/shanghai, the whole nation of japan and exiting over tokyo...

[euro6208]

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2014/09/18/schools-closed-and-a-state-of-calamity-issued-fung-wong-mario-impacts-luzon/

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2014/09/19/manila-flooding-image-gallery/

Our latest 2 updates on tropical storm fung-wong...Widespread flooding happening as we speak

thanks guys.

Any site where we can see the forecast for Metro Manila for the next hours

Try this

http://twitter.com/MMDA

Minute by minute updates...

[mrbagyo]

meanwhile in Manila...

[euro6208]

19Z now sends fung-wong to taiwan and mainland china...likely will not strengthen much before hitting the mountains of taiwan and into china...dissipation won't surprised me...

[dhoeze]

FYI.. this is unofficial mm or rainfall I got after calling PAGASA

3:00 AM 58.1
4:00 AM 8.4
5:00 AM 7.0
6:00 AM 43.0
7:00 AM 66.0
8:00 AM 37.0
9:00 AM 21.0
10:00 AM 20.4
11:00 AM 2.5
12:00 PM 18.6
1:00 PM 18.4
2:00 PM 8.4


Hope gurus you could provide a better source. phone lines are hard to get thru in PAGASA

[euro6208]

16W FUNG-WONG 140919 0600 18.7N 121.3E WPAC 40 993

Not much change

[xtyphooncyclonex]

What had happened in Cebu yesterday is now happening in Manila.