2014 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

8. C4 Hurricane Genevieve

Genevieve became a Category 5 in the Western Pacific, but it was a Category 4 in the final advisory before it crossed the dateline and that is counted in the Eastern Pacific by definition.
It still counts even if it's for one advisory - unless you guys think that Marie shouldn't count as a Category 5 since it was only so for one advisory.

(Marie might be be reassessed as an earlier C5 in postseason, but Genevieve likely will be reassessed for Category 4 and 3 intensities occurring earlier as well....If the Atlantic can count Edouard, the CPAC can count Genevieve!)

Does Paka and Oliwa 97 count as E/CPAC Cat 5's then?

[somethingfunny]

8. C4 Hurricane Genevieve

Genevieve became a Category 5 in the Western Pacific, but it was a Category 4 in the final advisory before it crossed the dateline and that is counted in the Eastern Pacific by definition.
It still counts even if it's for one advisory - unless you guys think that Marie shouldn't count as a Category 5 since it was only so for one advisory.

(Marie might be be reassessed as an earlier C5 in postseason, but Genevieve likely will be reassessed for Category 4 and 3 intensities occurring earlier as well....If the Atlantic can count Edouard, the CPAC can count Genevieve!)

Does Paka and Oliwa 97 count as E/CPAC Cat 5's then?

I guess my post wasn't as clear as it should have been.

[Ntxw]

Polo becomes 12th Hurricane of the season, and more impressively it is the 10th Hurricane in a row.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If Polo becomes a major, then it would be the 9th major of the season (highest since 1993) and the 4th consecutive major hurricane.

[Kingarabian]

The EPAC has just gone mad this year! I honestly think this is the year we go Greek.

I'd say that is quite unlikely. The season is almost over and at this point, the only area that can spawn TC's is off the west coast of Mexico.

I would agree with you if it was another season.

But this El-Nino is just getting started. We could see this season pro-longed.

[TheStormExpert]

If Polo becomes a major, then it would be the 9th major of the season (highest since 1993) and the 4th consecutive major hurricane.

I really don't see this obtaining major status, waters have cooled some in the wake of Odile due to upwelling and I only expect it to peak at strong Cat.1/minimal Cat.2 status.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I really don't see this obtaining major status, waters have cooled some in the wake of Odile due to upwelling and I only expect it to peak at strong Cat.1/minimal Cat.2 status.

Polo is tracking westerly and is at a considerably lower latitude than Norbert and even Odile. I'm not saying that I will see a MAJOR, I only said IF. Lastly, storms this year have many surprises.

[Yellow Evan]

If Polo becomes a major, then it would be the 9th major of the season (highest since 1993) and the 4th consecutive major hurricane.

I really don't see this obtaining major status, waters have cooled some in the wake of Odile due to upwelling and I only expect it to peak at strong Cat.1/minimal Cat.2 status.

Yea, but this season has pulled up wild stuff. I kind of agree, but it's not the kind of season you doubt.

[hurricanes1234]

Shear is increasing over Polo, so I will be surprised if it becomes a major.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Shear is increasing over Polo, so I will be surprised if it becomes a major.

This being pessimistic is getting annoying. Cannot rule out weakening or it not becoming a major, and, only Karina so far did not overcome the problem. Norbert earlier this year had this problem, yet it RI'd to a 105-kt major.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS shows nothing for a while. Stupid Edouard had to steal a wave.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS shows nothing for a while. Stupid Edouard had to steal a wave.

Man.

At least this season is already above average in numbers at 17/12/8 and unlike 2012 when the seasonal ACE was improportionate to the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes.

This year's seasonal ACE is the highest since 2006's yearly total (but will definitely be surpassed by this year's by tomorrow) and may even surpass 1997 and 1982 if the activity continues over the next month. This year is more than twice as active as last year.

[supercane4867]

We should have Rachel develops by next week according to HWRF and ECMWF

[Ntxw]

Overall KW activity remains positive for EPAC. I think in the 5-7 day we may see another passage of a more robust pulse. 500mb pattern analogs within this period are mimicking 2009.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS nor none of its ensembles really show anything for the next week.

[Cyclenall]

GFS shows nothing for a while. Stupid Edouard had to steal a wave.

Yeah stupid Edouard and its 6-hour status of being a major hurricane, just like 2012 in the Atlantic. Edouard and Kirk 2012 should hang out, they have a lot in common.

I looked at my Epac forecast for 2014 and realized its pretty much 100% correct. I think so far this is the best I've ever done with any long-range prediction I have ever made. All the points have pretty much happened with some grey area for one of them, and the numbers are lined up except 1 more TS I believe until its exact. I check it again and compare weeks from now.

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah stupid Edouard and its 6-hour status of being a major hurricane, just like 2012 in the Atlantic. Edouard and Kirk 2012 should hang out, they have a lot in common.

Kirk was only 90 knts IIRC. Micheal was 100 knts, is that what you are thinking off? It still amazes me how there has not been a legit ATL major since .... Ophelia 2011.

I looked at my Epac forecast for 2014 and realized its pretty much 100% correct.

Ill re-post.

My 2014 North Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Prediction is as follows:

18/11/7 (Final)

ACE: 197 We should be semi-close to this

These are some point form notes on my thoughts for this season:

- At least one category 5 hurricane will form Check
- There will be three major hurricane landfalls on the mainland Mexican coastline this season One ,but it isn't even October yet
- More TC's will be traveling westwards at a low latitude this season entering into the Cpac Like most el Nino years, yes
- In the "Hyper-Active" category for Epac seasonsNOAA does not use that category on an official bias in the EPAC; however, I (unofficially) use it to describe season's with over 195 ACE.
- One large hurricane will form We've had two, plus one with a really large eye
- A major hurricane will form before June 20 Not one, but two
- One tropical cyclone will do 2 loops Good call.

It's kinda cool reading this thread all over again. Honestly, the most amazing thing about this season is that this comes as no serious surprise. Looking at my forecast from May: (just quoting pieces of it)

SST's are vary warm and already are up to 26C along Cabo San Lucas. SST's well above normal along the western Baja coast. However, they are only near average elsewhere, and there is a cool pool near 120W.That cool pool vanished. And we reached record SST levels.

Still, not unlike 1997. On the positive side, as indicated on page 6, shear is way below normal and vertical instability is once again above average. Had it's ups and downs by still is.

I posted this someone else on another forum, but hopefully no one minds I break it down on here as well.

Ill get into details later, but here are my two analogues, mostly based on ENSO timing: 1972 and 1997. Got my anaolgues wrong. 1972/1997 were classic El Ninos. This season has that nuetral/weak El Nino feel to it. These analogues do not incorporate other atmospheric factors, as wind shear/vertical instabilityI will next year know that I was introduced to the NCDC re-analysis. As mentioned earlier, El Nino years tend to be late activity starters, as noted by me in 2012. Since I do not notice any major difference in Modoki’s and regular El Nino’s, I will still expect a slow start. I expect nothing for May, maybe something in early June, Amanda *cough* Cristina *cough* However, by the end of July, I expect activity to pick up considerably, and it continue through the next three months (sans the typical El Nino early September dry spell which occurs when the ATL gets semi-busy). By the end of September or even late August, I'd expect landfalls.Did almost perfect. Except for the ATL bit The above forecast assumes that the El Nino will not get stronger than currently expected, and if it does, the season could end up much more active than indicated above.It did, but not due to El Nino.

[galaxy401]

Shear is increasing over Polo, so I will be surprised if it becomes a major.

This being pessimistic is getting annoying. Cannot rule out weakening or it not becoming a major, and, only Karina so far did not overcome the problem. Norbert earlier this year had this problem, yet it RI'd to a 105-kt major.

Why is this being pessimistic? The NHC has the storm weakening now. It becoming a major is increasingly unlikely (won't rule it out). Granted, Polo looks a little more organized but it's running out of time.

[euro6208]

Shear is increasing over Polo, so I will be surprised if it becomes a major.

This being pessimistic is getting annoying. Cannot rule out weakening or it not becoming a major, and, only Karina so far did not overcome the problem. Norbert earlier this year had this problem, yet it RI'd to a 105-kt major.

Why is this being pessimistic? The NHC has the storm weakening now. It becoming a major is increasingly unlikely (won't rule it out). Granted, Polo looks a little more organized but it's running out of time.

Agreed...Someone is biting their tongue...

[Yellow Evan]

Shear is increasing over Polo, so I will be surprised if it becomes a major.

This being pessimistic is getting annoying. Cannot rule out weakening or it not becoming a major, and, only Karina so far did not overcome the problem. Norbert earlier this year had this problem, yet it RI'd to a 105-kt major.

Why is this being pessimistic? The NHC has the storm weakening now. It becoming a major is increasingly unlikely (won't rule it out). Granted, Polo looks a little more organized but it's running out of time.

He said that on September 18, before Recon found it weaker.