EPAC: RACHEL - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 99, 2014092012, , BEST, 0, 110N, 910W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2014092018, , BEST, 0, 110N, 916W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2014092100, , BEST, 0, 110N, 923W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2014092106, , BEST, 0, 110N, 929W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2014092112, , BEST, 0, 110N, 935W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,



5 AM TWO:

A weak area of low pressure, accompanied by disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, is located several hundred miles south-southeast of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days while it moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

SSD Floater is up

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992014 09/21/14 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 32 39 49 59 68 77 82 86 90
V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 32 39 49 59 68 77 82 86 90
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 26 29 34 41 50 61 72 82
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 13 16 21 19 17 15 7 5 7 6 10 10 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -1 -2 -4 -5 -4 -4 -3 -2 -4 -4
SHEAR DIR 30 28 32 39 44 49 48 29 54 66 58 70 79
SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.5
POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 152 152 154 156 158 160 160 159 154 149
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -52.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 7 8 6 8 6 8 7 8 7
700-500 MB RH 77 76 77 77 77 77 76 74 78 79 80 78 76
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 11 12 13 14
850 MB ENV VOR 4 5 16 24 18 22 23 24 22 19 15 28 29
200 MB DIV 51 71 85 79 53 39 43 59 39 47 56 41 27
700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -2 -2
LAND (KM) 401 400 411 427 405 356 361 372 399 427 437 450 480
LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.6 14.3 15.2 15.9
LONG(DEG W) 93.5 94.1 94.6 95.1 95.6 96.4 97.4 98.6 100.2 102.2 104.2 106.1 107.7
STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 7 9 10 10 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 29 32 30 27 24 25 25 21 31 33 32 37 19

Here we go again.

[supercane4867]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located about a hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Showers and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
area located several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
has become better organized this morning. Environmental conditions
are conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next several days as the low
moves west-northwestward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...near 30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain

[Yellow Evan]

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

EP, 99, 2014092118, , BEST, 0, 112N, 944W, 25, 1008, DB

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992014 09/21/14 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 46 58 67 77 83 90 93 97
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 46 58 67 77 83 90 93 97
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 37 42 48 56 65 75 83 90
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 18 20 21 19 18 14 8 7 6 8 11 9 1
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 -2 -1 -2 -3 -5
SHEAR DIR 29 33 35 40 34 34 40 27 25 41 41 59 321
SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.7 28.4
POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 153 154 156 157 160 159 160 158 151 148
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 76 74 75 72 76 76 80 79 78 75
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 9 10 13 15 18 20 23
850 MB ENV VOR 2 11 15 10 11 26 17 28 20 20 23 32 48
200 MB DIV 54 61 79 55 52 52 65 84 76 80 60 54 61
700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -3 -4 -1
LAND (KM) 431 440 428 395 366 346 354 383 408 426 411 428 445
LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.4 14.1 15.0 15.9 16.8
LONG(DEG W) 94.4 95.0 95.5 95.9 96.3 97.2 98.2 99.6 101.3 103.2 105.1 106.8 108.2
STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 4 5 6 8 9 10 10 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 30 26 23 23 24 27 23 25 37 31 31 23 13

[supercane4867]

GFS predicts a very favorable upper level pattern through the Day 4-8 period, along with abundant time over warm waters as indicated by SHIPS it's not too early to call for Major Hurricane Rachel

[Yellow Evan]

GFS predicts a very favorable upper level pattern through the Day 4-8 period, along with abundant time over warm waters as indicated by SHIPS it's not too early to call for Major Hurricane Rachel

IT will become one IMO. These seems Hilary 11-esque in one of those slow moving long-lived major hurricanes.

[Kingarabian]

Going to be interesting for sure.

[Yellow Evan]

18Z gfs big shift west so far.

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT TWO up to 50%-80%.


A broad low pressure area located several hundred miles south-
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected
to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next several days as the low moves west-
northwestward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS brought this to 972 mbar.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

EP, 99, 2014092200, , BEST, 0, 114N, 954W, 25, 1008, DB

[CrazyC83]

Rachel looks like she will be another big one...this season is getting out of hand...

I think the major hurricane record is certainly in serious jeopardy!

[Yellow Evan]

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 46 56 65 74 77 81 86 89
V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 46 56 65 74 77 81 86 89
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 31 35 39 45 52 60 67 74 80
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 19 19 18 18 18 11 11 9 9 11 9 5 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -5 -2 0 -2 -3 -5 -7
SHEAR DIR 26 29 31 35 43 53 31 42 38 62 51 51 347
SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.1 28.5 28.2 27.8
POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 155 156 157 159 160 160 156 149 145 141
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -52.9 -53.4 -52.7 -53.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 9 7 9 7 8 7 7
700-500 MB RH 78 78 76 75 75 75 73 77 79 80 79 78 73
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 6 6 6 8 9 11 13 14 15 17 19
850 MB ENV VOR 6 12 10 10 17 19 16 16 13 17 36 45 54
200 MB DIV 66 81 59 44 46 52 59 56 49 62 42 17 40
700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -2 -1
LAND (KM) 485 445 412 392 374 370 392 427 441 444 473 534 596
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.3 14.1 15.0 15.9 16.6 17.4
LONG(DEG W) 95.4 96.0 96.5 97.0 97.5 98.5 99.8 101.5 103.6 105.7 107.6 109.1 110.4
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 5 7 10 11 11 9 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 21 18 18 21 23 21 27 36 31 37 20 12 13

[Kingarabian]

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 46 56 65 74 77 81 86 89
V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 46 56 65 74 77 81 86 89
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 31 35 39 45 52 60 67 74 80
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 19 19 18 18 18 11 11 9 9 11 9 5 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -5 -2 0 -2 -3 -5 -7
SHEAR DIR 26 29 31 35 43 53 31 42 38 62 51 51 347
SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.1 28.5 28.2 27.8
POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 155 156 157 159 160 160 156 149 145 141
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -52.9 -53.4 -52.7 -53.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 9 7 9 7 8 7 7
700-500 MB RH 78 78 76 75 75 75 73 77 79 80 79 78 73
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 6 6 6 8 9 11 13 14 15 17 19
850 MB ENV VOR 6 12 10 10 17 19 16 16 13 17 36 45 54
200 MB DIV 66 81 59 44 46 52 59 56 49 62 42 17 40
700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -2 -1
LAND (KM) 485 445 412 392 374 370 392 427 441 444 473 534 596
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.3 14.1 15.0 15.9 16.6 17.4
LONG(DEG W) 95.4 96.0 96.5 97.0 97.5 98.5 99.8 101.5 103.6 105.7 107.6 109.1 110.4
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 5 7 10 11 11 9 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 21 18 18 21 23 21 27 36 31 37 20 12 13

How accurate have the SHIPS shear forecasts been?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Polo, located a few hundred miles
west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico,
have increased and become more concentrated overnight.
Environmental conditions are generally conducive for development,
and a a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few
days while it moves west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Yellow Evan]

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 46 56 65 74 77 81 86 89
V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 46 56 65 74 77 81 86 89
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 31 35 39 45 52 60 67 74 80
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 19 19 18 18 18 11 11 9 9 11 9 5 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -5 -2 0 -2 -3 -5 -7
SHEAR DIR 26 29 31 35 43 53 31 42 38 62 51 51 347
SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.1 28.5 28.2 27.8
POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 155 156 157 159 160 160 156 149 145 141
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -52.9 -53.4 -52.7 -53.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 9 7 9 7 8 7 7
700-500 MB RH 78 78 76 75 75 75 73 77 79 80 79 78 73
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 6 6 6 8 9 11 13 14 15 17 19
850 MB ENV VOR 6 12 10 10 17 19 16 16 13 17 36 45 54
200 MB DIV 66 81 59 44 46 52 59 56 49 62 42 17 40
700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -2 -1
LAND (KM) 485 445 412 392 374 370 392 427 441 444 473 534 596
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.3 14.1 15.0 15.9 16.6 17.4
LONG(DEG W) 95.4 96.0 96.5 97.0 97.5 98.5 99.8 101.5 103.6 105.7 107.6 109.1 110.4
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 5 7 10 11 11 9 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 21 18 18 21 23 21 27 36 31 37 20 12 13

How accurate have the SHIPS shear forecasts been?

So so. They sometimes show too much shear.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

EP, 99, 2014092212, , BEST, 0, 119N, 975W, 25, 1008, DB