WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Tropical Storm

[seatrump]

Here in the center of Shanghai it has so far been pretty quiet. It was a little breezy this morning, now mostly calm and dry so far. They have a yellow typhoon warning signal in place, the second of a 4 step system. Not a lot of information in English other than in the Shanghai Daily.

I just put new batteries in my weather station which reports to Weather Underground and now the stupid thing has stopped working altogether! Grr......

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 20//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 188 NM
SOUTH OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAKENED
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. A 220518Z NOAA-19
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONSISTENT DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 16W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG (25 TO 30
KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE SAME STRONG
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES IS PROVIDING
POLEWARD VENTILATION TO THE WEAKENING CONVECTION. TS 16W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS FUNG-WONG WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THEN
RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STEERING STR IS WEAKENED BY THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. INCREASING VWS WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 48.
CONCURRENTLY, TS 16W WILL UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION,
BECOMING A WEAK COLD-CORE BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[madness]

The Yellow Typhoon warning was issued for Shanghai at 09am on Sep 22nd (today).
The message is only in Chinese but a translation does say that during the next 24 hours winds of Beaufort level 7-9 are expected for the Yangtze River estuary areas and Beaufort level 8-10 for coastal areas.

Link to the Shanghai radar:
http://www.weather.gov.cn/publish/radar/shanghai.htm

Link to the Chinese typhoon forecast map:
http://www.weather.gov.cn/publish/count ... phoon.html

The JMA forecast is slightly more east and has the centre passing over Shanghai
Link to JMA:
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1416c.html

[seatrump]

Thanks for the Shanghai links!

It started raining about 4:30pm local time but it's been pretty light. Winds are also light. Radar shows heavier rain is not too far away.

[madness]

The 12Z JMA forecast now shows the trajectory slightly east of Shanghai.
Fung-Wong has been moving slower than originally forecast and is likely to turn east just before the centre reaches Shanghai - hopefully this reduces the total rainfall.

Link to Shanghai Yellow Typhoon warning (in Chinese):
http://www.weather.gov.cn/detail.php?tr ... 1004583671

Link to Chinese - English translator (for China mainland)
http://fanyi.baidu.com

If you are NOT in China you can use Google Translate but Baidu may give a better translation

[euro6208]

16W FUNG-WONG 140922 1200 29.1N 122.3E WPAC 40 993

[seatrump]

Moderate to heavy rain in Shanghai for the last view hours. Pudong airport is reporting gusts to about 45 mph but in the city it is merely breezy.

In addition to the still posted Yellow Typhoon alert, there is also a yellow rainstorm alert.

[madness]

The doppler radar this morning shows all the heavy rain offshore (to the east of Shanghai).
Shanghai did get a bit lucky and the worst part did miss the city; however yesterday Zhejiang province was badly hit
(Zhejiang is south of Shanghai and had a Red Typhoon alert last night)