#12 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 22, 2014 4:15 am
Up to MEDIUM!
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7N
151.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 150.5E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION
BROADLY WRAPPING INTO A SLOWLY-ORGANIZING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 220331Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING TOWARDS THE
ILL-DEFINED LLCC. AN OLDER 220017Z ASCAT PASS PARTIALLY SHOWED 20 TO
30 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND BARBS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTION AND SLOW
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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