2014 EPAC Season

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Yellow Evan
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#1141 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 19, 2014 3:54 pm

An area of low pressure could develop later this weekend or early
next week a few hundred miles south or southeast of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are conducive for some
gradual development later next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#1142 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Sep 19, 2014 6:00 pm

18z GFS finally shows development

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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#1143 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 19, 2014 7:59 pm

supercane4867 wrote:We should have Rachel develops by next week according to HWRF and ECMWF

Image


What is that storm near 40N, something (sub)tropical?
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#1144 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 20, 2014 9:06 am

An area of low pressure could develop early next week a few hundred
miles south or southeast of southeastern Mexico. After that time,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
gradual development while this system moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#1145 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 20, 2014 11:46 am

CrazyC83 wrote:What is that storm near 40N, something (sub)tropical?

It's a strong extratropical cyclone

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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#1146 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 20, 2014 12:48 pm

An area of disturbed weather has formed a couple of hundred miles
south of the coast of Guatemala and is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected
to become conducive for gradual development of this system during
the next several days while it moves slowly westward or west-
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#1147 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 20, 2014 5:53 pm

GFS suddenly decides to turn off its quiet mode

Image

Image
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#1148 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 20, 2014 6:36 pm

An area of disturbed weather located a couple hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become
conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
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#1149 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 21, 2014 12:59 am

A small area of disturbed weather is located a couple of hundred
miles south of the coast of Guatemala. Environmental conditions are
expected to become conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days while it moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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#1150 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 21, 2014 1:03 am

GFS weaker at 0z run and now favors a system behind it.
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#1151 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 21, 2014 6:55 am

Up to 40%.

A weak area of low pressure, accompanied by disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, is located several hundred miles south-southeast of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days while it moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#1152 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 21, 2014 8:00 am

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#1153 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 21, 2014 11:41 am

0z GFS showed a powerful Hurricane Simon forming after 99E in 8 days. 6z dropped this idea however.
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#1154 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 25, 2014 6:32 pm

An area of low pressure could develop this weekend or early next
week a few hundred miles south of the coast of southeastern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some subsequent
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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#1155 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 25, 2014 7:03 pm

18z GFS showed :uarrow: hitting MX by day 8.
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#1156 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 25, 2014 7:41 pm

MJO is currently unfavorable for the region, correct?
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Re:

#1157 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 25, 2014 8:37 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:MJO is currently unfavorable for the region, correct?


It's incoherent, but more or less, yes. We have a weak Kelvin Wave coming.
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#1158 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 26, 2014 7:09 am

An area of low pressure could develop this weekend or early next
week south of the coast of southeastern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some subsequent development while
the system moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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cycloneye
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#1159 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 26, 2014 12:34 pm

An area of low pressure could develop this weekend or early next
week south of the coast of southeastern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some subsequent development while
the system moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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cycloneye
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#1160 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 26, 2014 6:28 pm

An area of low pressure could develop this weekend or early next
week south of the coast of southeastern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some subsequent development while
the system moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


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