Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[tolakram]

It may be that the the period between 1997 and last year is what is out of the ordinary.

[WeatherGuesser]

Such a pity when a topic-focused board goes so dead it turns to silliness like sports just so the members have something to do.

[somethingfunny]

Such a pity when a topic-focused board goes so dead it turns to silliness like sports just so the members have something to do.

Considering the human toll of any event which would get this board really hopping with activity, I'm okay with trading that off for boredom.

[tolakram]

Such a pity when a topic-focused board goes so dead it turns to silliness like sports just so the members have something to do.

What are you talking about? If you don't like the conversation then stay out of it rather than post comments about what you don't like about the topic.

[ninel conde]

as i expected, the season has ended early. could we get a weak sheared storm sometime between now and nov? maybe but i wouldnt count on it. i doubt things have ever been more hostile in sept.

[tolakram]

as i expected, the season has ended early. could we get a weak sheared storm sometime between now and nov? maybe but i wouldnt count on it. i doubt things have ever been more hostile in sept.

The last time you posted we ended up with a major hurricane the next week.

not surprised. i think the models are just showing climatology and something SHOULD be out there. dry air will kill off everything. 91L will dry right up.

91L became Hurricane EDOUARD.

[ConvergenceZone]

Actually, I'm giving the season 3 more weeks(to the last part of October) before I say, "IT'S DEAD JIM"....... Will see if Mother Nature will Man up and show me something or if I will proclaim that I was right all along............We'll see

[WPBWeather]

as i expected, the season has ended early. could we get a weak sheared storm sometime between now and nov? maybe but i wouldnt count on it. i doubt things have ever been more hostile in sept.

Don't know where you get your info from, but it is very wet most places-not dry. No El Nino, shear is low-just no storms forming. I have seen no credible Pro Met or scientific rationale as to why things are the way they are.

[Hammy]

Concerning some of the comments, I think the lack of widespread internet and instant 24/7 data access during the last quiet period is why people have such a short memory as far as past quiet seasons --I would've loved to see all the season cancel posts had this forum existed in 1994 and we went into November at 5/1/0, which was then followed by two hurricanes that month.

Actually, I'm giving the season 3 more weeks(to the last part of October) before I say, "IT'S DEAD JIM"

Nature will follow it's own timetable. Be pushy, and nature may wait so you can make your season cancel post, then throw a barrage of storms

[Yellow Evan]

as i expected, the season has ended early. could we get a weak sheared storm sometime between now and nov? maybe but i wouldnt count on it. i doubt things have ever been more hostile in sept.

Don't know where you get your info from, but it is very wet most places-not dry. No El Nino, shear is low-just no storms forming. I have seen no credible Pro Met or scientific rationale as to why things are the way they are.

We kinda have an El Nino. Look at the MEI rankings. And shear is at record levels, and there is dry air in the MDR.

[ninel conde]

as i expected, the season has ended early. could we get a weak sheared storm sometime between now and nov? maybe but i wouldnt count on it. i doubt things have ever been more hostile in sept.

Don't know where you get your info from, but it is very wet most places-not dry. No El Nino, shear is low-just no storms forming. I have seen no credible Pro Met or scientific rationale as to why things are the way they are.

you must have missed TWC this afternoon

[ConvergenceZone]

Concerning some of the comments, I think the lack of widespread internet and instant 24/7 data access during the last quiet period is why people have such a short memory as far as past quiet seasons --I would've loved to see all the season cancel posts had this forum existed in 1994 and we went into November at 5/1/0, which was then followed by two hurricanes that month.

But remember, the past does not equal the future. Just because 1994 was like that means absolutely nothing when it comes to 2014... Conditions could have been more favorable in 1994 too.....In prior years, you can sometimes look at the Satellite Maps and see that there was a lot of energy out there, just not that favorable conditions at the time....But now not only am I seeing the not favorable conditions, but also the lack of energy(impressive waves).... I find it amazing how many people think that in October and November all the sudden the tropics are just going to light up.......And those same people were saying the same thing in August about how September would be....

[Hammy]

And those same people were saying the same thing in August about how September would be....

Nobody here was saying September was going to be active, only countering the argument people were making that August would be 0/0/0 when nothing formed in the middle of the month, and then saying September would also be 0/0/0 when nothing formed on the first day of the month.

Conditions could have been more favorable in 1994 too.....In prior years, you can sometimes look at the Satellite Maps and see that there was a lot of energy out there, just not that favorable conditions at the time....But now not only am I seeing the not favorable conditions, but also the lack of energy(impressive waves)

Conditions were actually unfavorable throughout 1994: there were weaker waves and far more shear/dry air than this. October wind shear was immense as well, as the entire month went by without so much as a tropical depression. My point is not that October/November are going to be active, but it's a bit hasty to say with absolute certainty that because nothing is forming right now, that it is impossible for anything to form later. The same was being said a week before Cristobal, a week before Dolly with regards to the Gulf, and a week before Edouard. In all likelihood the MJO will come around at least one more time this year, and in all likelihood, as with the earlier occurrances this year, will likely help induce at least one more storm between the second week of October and the end of the season.

[Andrew92]

It may be that the the period between 1997 and last year is what is out of the ordinary.

Fully agreed! More major hurricanes have hit land in the 2000s than in any other decade in the satellite era, and it isn't close, at more than 20 throughout the Western Hemisphere (admittedly, also counting the EPAC). 12 storms with pressures of below 965 mb (the pressure threshold for Category 3) hit the United States, Mexico and mainland Central America were hit that decade by 10 such storms (including three in the EPAC), and 9 majors hit Caribbean islands. Six storms also hit two of these regions with pressures that low and caused significant damage. And the last half of the 90s was no slouch either, with every year producing at least one major strike (yes, even 1997 because of Pauline), but usually at least two.

The last time we had a period like we have had arguably since 1995 instead of 1997, has to be the 1940s and 1950s. I therefore hope what we have witnessed since then is something that happens once in a lifetime.

It's really nice to have quiet seasons like 2013 and 2014 to recover from the past horrific period there has been. Still, one comment I read from another poster concerns me about the ACE we have for these two years put together. At first glance it doesn't sound concerning, until I dissect what has happened immediately after each period has ended.

Not done yet, but statistically speaking 2013-2014 will likely join 1972/1973, 1982/1983, 1986/1987, 1993/1994 as the fifth back to back couplet of <80 ACE points or less than 40 points for each season between the two since 1950. Interestingly the weird factoid is that the other previous four back to backs have occurred during -AMO, so 2013/2014 seems odd here. So this is not something we're accustomed to during the +AMO but to be fair ACE count really has only been kept since the end of the last +AMO (1950s/60s) so we've only had three cycles. Small sample in the grand time scale. Two were warm and one was cold.

After 1972-1973: 1974 produced Hurricane Carmen (which fortunately hit an unpopulated area of Louisiana) and 1975 had Eloise (a rather forgotten storm, and I hadn't even heard of this one until Opal hit). Both were major hits for the United States, with Carmen also hitting the Yucatan Peninsula as nearly a Category 5. Also, Fifi became Central America's worst hurricane until Mitch, and Caroline and Olivia were Mexican majors in 1975 (again, counting the EPAC for Olivia).

After 1982-1983: Hurricane Diana grazed the North Carolina coast as a high-end Category 3 storm, perhaps bringing some of those winds onshore briefly, before weakening, stalling, looping, and finally coming onshore as a high-end Category 1. And then came Elena in 1985 and all the problems she dealt on the Gulf Coast, even where she didn't make landfall. Hurricane Gloria also had a Category 3-type pressure and produced major problems on the East Coast, even as a Category 2 by wind. And don't forget Hurricane Juan, and the floods he brought, even though this was a "mere" Category 1 that stalled for days along the coast.

After 1986-1987: 1988 is the only year in these periods not to produce a major hurricane in the United States, and even this was too close with Gilbert striking just south of the border in Mexico. Quite frankly, I actually wouldn't call this close, given the reign of terror and death this storm had throughout its life, not to mention a record-low pressure until Wilma. And of course, South Carolina was slammed by Hugo in 1989, with Guadeloupe, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico also getting hammered by him as a major. Don't forget about Joan either, Nicaragua's most destructive hurricane by far. Kiko also scraped through southern Baja as a major, but did surprisingly little damage.

After 1993-1994: The temperamental 1995 season that kicked the active period off. Somehow the United States mainland "only" got one major hit out of Opal, but it was doozy. But Luis and Marilyn pounded the Leeward and Virgin Islands in only a little over a week's worth of time, and Roxanne hit the Yucatan Peninsula before stalling around in the Bay of Campeche and creating major flooding along the Mexican coast. And though not a major and in the EPAC, don't forget about Ismael and the horrible floods he brought to areas of Mexico. Surprisingly, of all the majors in 1996 to form, only Fran hit land directly as one, though Lili was grazing past the Bahamas when it became one briefly. However, while a lack of majors hit, there were lots of Category 1's (and a couple 2's) that hit land in both the Atlantic and EPAC that year that, put together, created lots of problems, namely in North Carolina and Mexico. (When counting the EPAC, five hurricanes hit there that year! Did you know that? Though four were C1's and one a C2: Alma was the C2, along with Boris, Dolly, Fausto, and Hernan.)

I wouldn't use the past two seasons as a predictor for 2015 and 2016 per se, and the sample size is quite small. But it does make me wary about what could be coming up in the near future. Who knows, maybe 2014 will surprise us 1994-style with activity in November (who could have accurately seen Florence and Gordon coming so quickly with the level of inactivity that year, besides someone who predicts everything to develop?), and couple it with some October activity and the Atlantic goes above the threshold. But with the atmosphere acting like an El Nino, I have my doubts that 2014 will see more than a few named storms, and now that we've had that major, no more of those.

I just really hope no matter what happens, though, that it's nothing like what we have seen since 1995.

-Andrew92

[Ntxw]

I wouldn't use the past two seasons as a predictor for 2015 and 2016 per se, and the sample size is quite small. But it does make me wary about what could be coming up in the near future. Who knows, maybe 2014 will surprise us 1994-style with activity in November (who could have accurately seen Florence and Gordon coming so quickly with the level of inactivity that year, besides someone who predicts everything to develop?), and couple it with some October activity and the Atlantic goes above the threshold. But with the atmosphere acting like an El Nino, I have my doubts that 2014 will see more than a few named storms, and now that we've had that major, no more of those.

I just really hope no matter what happens, though, that it's nothing like what we have seen since 1995.

-Andrew92

Some very good observations of seasons after. It seems these couplets in the past have been associated with significant El Nino events and were followed by (those years you listed with impacts) La Nina. As I mentioned in the ENSO thread what happens the next few months can be telling of 2015. If the Nino really kicks off it increases the chance of a La Nina next year, if it does not we'll likely hover around neutral or another Nino. Never gone from neutral to Nina since 1950. It is those La Nina's that immediately follow El Nino that can produce some dangerous seasons. It's likely due to the Nino adding heat and energy to the global tropics and then La Nina's reversal of the air masses that causes extreme weather. Just like how weather tends to happen when you get drastic changes in temperatures.

[Andrew92]

I wouldn't use the past two seasons as a predictor for 2015 and 2016 per se, and the sample size is quite small. But it does make me wary about what could be coming up in the near future. Who knows, maybe 2014 will surprise us 1994-style with activity in November (who could have accurately seen Florence and Gordon coming so quickly with the level of inactivity that year, besides someone who predicts everything to develop?), and couple it with some October activity and the Atlantic goes above the threshold. But with the atmosphere acting like an El Nino, I have my doubts that 2014 will see more than a few named storms, and now that we've had that major, no more of those.

I just really hope no matter what happens, though, that it's nothing like what we have seen since 1995.

-Andrew92

Some very good observations of seasons after. It seems these couplets in the past have been associated with significant El Nino events and were followed by (those years you listed with impacts) La Nina. As I mentioned in the ENSO thread what happens the next few months can be telling of 2015. If the Nino really kicks off it increases the chance of a La Nina next year, if it does not we'll likely hover around neutral or another Nino. Never gone from neutral to Nina since 1950. It is those La Nina's that immediately follow El Nino that can produce some dangerous seasons. It's likely due to the Nino adding heat and energy to the global tropics and then La Nina's reversal of the air masses that causes extreme weather. Just like how weather tends to happen when you get drastic changes in temperatures.

The other thing I could mention but didn't in my previous post is the research I have done about the years following El Nino years. The second year after a traditional, east-based El Nino hurricane season has ALWAYS since 1960 produced at least one major hurricane, whether by wind or a pressure of below 965 mb, striking the United States.

We'll see how the rest of 2014 acts, and though not officially an El Nino, I really think when push comes to shove, it will be declared an El Nino season sometime in the future. The EPAC activity this year also speaks for itself and is not normal in non-El Nino years.

-Andrew92

[Yellow Evan]

I wouldn't use the past two seasons as a predictor for 2015 and 2016 per se, and the sample size is quite small. But it does make me wary about what could be coming up in the near future. Who knows, maybe 2014 will surprise us 1994-style with activity in November (who could have accurately seen Florence and Gordon coming so quickly with the level of inactivity that year, besides someone who predicts everything to develop?), and couple it with some October activity and the Atlantic goes above the threshold. But with the atmosphere acting like an El Nino, I have my doubts that 2014 will see more than a few named storms, and now that we've had that major, no more of those.

I just really hope no matter what happens, though, that it's nothing like what we have seen since 1995.

-Andrew92

Some very good observations of seasons after. It seems these couplets in the past have been associated with significant El Nino events and were followed by (those years you listed with impacts) La Nina. As I mentioned in the ENSO thread what happens the next few months can be telling of 2015. If the Nino really kicks off it increases the chance of a La Nina next year, if it does not we'll likely hover around neutral or another Nino. Never gone from neutral to Nina since 1950. It is those La Nina's that immediately follow El Nino that can produce some dangerous seasons. It's likely due to the Nino adding heat and energy to the global tropics and then La Nina's reversal of the air masses that causes extreme weather. Just like how weather tends to happen when you get drastic changes in temperatures.

The other thing I could mention but didn't in my previous post is the research I have done about the years following El Nino years. The second year after a traditional, east-based El Nino hurricane season has ALWAYS since 1960 produced at least one major hurricane, whether by wind or a pressure of below 965 mb, striking the United States.

We'll see how the rest of 2014 acts, and though not officially an El Nino, I really think when push comes to shove, it will be declared an El Nino season sometime in the future. The EPAC activity this year also speaks for itself and is not normal in non-El Nino years.

-Andrew92

I agree it's too soon to worry about 2015. As for the EPAC, there has been some quite active seasons in non-El Nino years there (1984, 1985, 1990, 1978). Just in the active era.

[Ntxw]

I agree it's too soon to worry about 2015. As for the EPAC, there has been some quite active seasons in non-El Nino years there (1984, 1985, 1990, 1978). Just in the active era.

You can toss in the biggest one of them all 1992 which was a cold neutral. The PDO is a large reason for this, as has been this year. There has not been a negative reading at all this year and we're already heading into October. Though the PDO and ENSO is interconnected as +PDO is during the regimes of the Nino's, vice versa for -PDO.

[Hurricaneman]

It may be that the the period between 1997 and last year is what is out of the ordinary.

Fully agreed! More major hurricanes have hit land in the 2000s than in any other decade in the satellite era, and it isn't close, at more than 20 throughout the Western Hemisphere (admittedly, also counting the EPAC). 12 storms with pressures of below 965 mb (the pressure threshold for Category 3) hit the United States, Mexico and mainland Central America were hit that decade by 10 such storms (including three in the EPAC), and 9 majors hit Caribbean islands. Six storms also hit two of these regions with pressures that low and caused significant damage. And the last half of the 90s was no slouch either, with every year producing at least one major strike (yes, even 1997 because of Pauline), but usually at least two.

The last time we had a period like we have had arguably since 1995 instead of 1997, has to be the 1940s and 1950s. I therefore hope what we have witnessed since then is something that happens once in a lifetime.

It's really nice to have quiet seasons like 2013 and 2014 to recover from the past horrific period there has been. Still, one comment I read from another poster concerns me about the ACE we have for these two years put together. At first glance it doesn't sound concerning, until I dissect what has happened immediately after each period has ended.

Not done yet, but statistically speaking 2013-2014 will likely join 1972/1973, 1982/1983, 1986/1987, 1993/1994 as the fifth back to back couplet of <80 ACE points or less than 40 points for each season between the two since 1950. Interestingly the weird factoid is that the other previous four back to backs have occurred during -AMO, so 2013/2014 seems odd here. So this is not something we're accustomed to during the +AMO but to be fair ACE count really has only been kept since the end of the last +AMO (1950s/60s) so we've only had three cycles. Small sample in the grand time scale. Two were warm and one was cold.

After 1993-1994: The temperamental 1995 season that kicked the active period off. Somehow the United States mainland "only" got one major hit out of Opal, but it was doozy. But Luis and Marilyn pounded the Leeward and Virgin Islands in only a little over a week's worth of time, and Roxanne hit the Yucatan Peninsula before stalling around in the Bay of Campeche and creating major flooding along the Mexican coast. And though not a major and in the EPAC, don't forget about Ismael and the horrible floods he brought to areas of Mexico. Surprisingly, of all the majors in 1996 to form, only Fran hit land directly as one, though Lili was grazing past the Bahamas when it became one briefly. However, while a lack of majors hit, there were lots of Category 1's (and a couple 2's) that hit land in both the Atlantic and EPAC that year that, put together, created lots of problems, namely in North Carolina and Mexico. (When counting the EPAC, five hurricanes hit there that year! Did you know that? Though four were C1's and one a C2: Alma was the C2, along with Boris, Dolly, Fausto, and Hernan.)



-Andrew92

and dont forget that one storm up the east coast around Christmas Eve 1994 which was probably either tropical or sub-tropical depending on what reanalysis finds brought 100mph wind gusts to Cape Cod and hurricane force wind gusts up to Boston

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[Yellow Evan]

I agree it's too soon to worry about 2015. As for the EPAC, there has been some quite active seasons in non-El Nino years there (1984, 1985, 1990, 1978). Just in the active era.

You can toss in the biggest one of them all 1992 which was a cold neutral. The PDO is a large reason for this, as has been this year. There has not been a negative reading at all this year and we're already heading into October. Though the PDO and ENSO is interconnected as +PDO is during the regimes of the Nino's, vice versa for -PDO.

I could toss in 1983 as well, though based on MEI, you could argue it was an El Nino for 2 years. Even 1992 is iffy, as the El Nino dissipated in mid July. 1990 and 1978 were warm neutrals, I've seen 1990-91 (and 1992-93) listed as El Nino's by other agencies while 1978-9 had a low subtropical jet that was Nino-like.