Texas Fall-2014

[Texas Snowman]

NWSFortWorth: DFW has had 0.06" of rain this month. Record for driest September ever is 0.09" in '84. No rain is in 7 day forecast. #dfwwx #txwx

Meanwhile, just 66 miles to the north of DFW Airport, it isn't the driest September on record...by far.

In fact, Sherman has recorded 2.93 inches of rain this month. Other places in Grayson County have had even more rainfall this month. My father-in-law's farm is one of them - his third-cutting hay crop looks to have grown nearly a foot since earlier in the month.

Some places in Texas are unusually dry this month, but many others are certainly not. Hopefully even the dry doughnut holes in the rainfall map will get some more good rains this fall and winter.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Nice looking cold front on the 18z. Looks like the air comes from North of Alaska and is in the NW territories in 5 days, 1032 HP in the plains at 252. Something to look forward to. (Possibly)

[TheProfessor]

It also brings some nice rain for north Texas with it too, hope that run pans out.

[ravyrn]

:wink:

When plane entrails stay in the sky you know it's cool weather!

I hope you mean 'Contrails' and not 'entrails' or else I'm running inside and hiding.

Noted! LOL!

[Rgv20]

Its been raining cats and dogs for a while now!

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
549 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

TXC427-270000-
/O.CON.KBRO.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-140927T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
STARR TX-
549 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL STARR COUNTY
UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 546 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED STREET
FLOODING WAS OCCURRING IN RIO GRANDE CITY. RADAR CONTINUES TO
INDICATE HEAVY RAINFALL FALLING IN RIO GRANDE CITY...WITH MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING IN CENTRAL STARR COUNTY WHERE AS MUCH AS
FOUR TO NEARLY FIVE INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE 400 PM. RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 630 PM AND FLOODING WILL
WORSEN.

THE LOS OLMOS CREEK...RUNNING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CITY
IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE ITS BANKS AND THREATEN PROPERTY AND POSSIBLY
CROSS HIGHWAY 755 AND HIGHWAY 83.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE ALONG THE LOS OLMOS
CREEK SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. TRAVELERS IN THE
AREA SHOULD BE VERY ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WATER COVERING
STREETS AND HIGHWAYS.

LOW WATER CROSSINGS ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT
ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES
AWAY.

DON`T BECOME A STATISTIC. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN!

&&

LAT...LON 2657 9883 2662 9875 2655 9871 2649 9877
2642 9879 2640 9880 2635 9879 2635 9880
2637 9881 2643 9884

$$

JGG

[South Texas Storms]

Nice Rgv!

Moderate rainfall is slowly moving across the Hill Country, San Antonio, and surrounding areas. Rain will likely continue through this evening.

[gboudx]

Here's what I miss from Steve McCauley not being on WFAA anymore. The guy was never scared to show something long-range.

I am cautiously optimistic to say that the long-range data continue to suggest a significant rain is coming to north Texas by late next week. A storm system - currently just west of the Aleutian Islands - will let loose a piece of its energy on its south side by next Monday which will drop into the southern Gulf of Alaska. There, the math suggests it should undergo rapid intensification and dive SE into California. From there it shoots east into north Texas by next Thursday.

This system should erode the strong cap that will be in place over north Texas and allow showers and storms to fire along a cold front that will be moving in from the west at the same time.

Since this storm system has not yet formed, and since it is still a week away, there are obviously still some uncertainty as to the exact timing and its ultimate strength. But we will be watching for that piece of energy to break off by early next week. Keep your eyes on the Gulf (of Alaska) !

[Rgv20]

Wow the Rain just picked up again!

[justinggibbs]

Wow the Rain just picked up again!

Do you know if there is much flooding going on there in town? Almost has to be.

[Rgv20]

Some serious wording out of the NWS.....I don't know anyone from Las Lomas Neighborhood but it sounds like a serious situation for those folks

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
935 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

TXC427-270330-
/O.CON.KBRO.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-140927T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
STARR TX-
935 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL STARR COUNTY
UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR THE LAS LOMAS
NEIGHBORHOOD.

AT 933 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THE LOS OLMOS CREEK
HAS RISEN TWO TO THREE FEET ABOVE ITS BANKS IN LAS LOMAS AND THE
ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOOD IS FLOODED WITH WATER ENTERING HOMES. HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUES IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD WITH MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE
NORTH CONTINUING TO FALL ONTO THE LOS OLMOS CREEK AND FLOODING WILL
LIKELY WORSEN.

THE CREEK WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO THREATEN HOMES AND BUSINESSES AS
WELL AS HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 755 IN THE GREATER RIO GRANDE CITY
AREA.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...
RIO GRANDE CITY.
EL SAUZ.



OTHER LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
GARCIASVILLE...LA PUERTA...LAS LOMAS AND SANTA CRUZ.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR WILL OCCUR SOON. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE CLOSED...AND HOMES ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS...WILL
BECOME INUNDATED. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY!

&&

[Rgv20]

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1017 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

TXC427-270330-
/O.CON.KBRO.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-140927T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
STARR TX-
1017 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL STARR COUNTY
UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR THE LAS LOMAS
NEIGHBORHOOD.

AT 1015 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED NUMEROUS CARS HAD
BEEN FLOODED ON HIGHWAY 83 NEAR LAS LOMAS AND FLOODWATERS REMAINED
HIGH IN LAS LOMAS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE
RIVER FOR NOW WITH MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER THE LOS OLMOS
CREEK. FLOODING AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...
RIO GRANDE CITY.
EL SAUZ.

OTHER LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING
INCLUDE...GARCIASVILLE...LA PUERTA...LAS LOMAS...HIGHWAY 755 AND
SANTA CRUZ.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR WILL OCCUR SOON. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE CLOSED...AND HOMES ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS...WILL
BECOME INUNDATED. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY!

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

[Rgv20]

So far today have received 5.09 inches of rain! Still getting some light rain..

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Wow, that will get the Rio flowing!

[justinggibbs]

The Rio Grande at RGC rose 5 feet in a few hours overnight!

[Portastorm]

So far today have received 5.09 inches of rain! Still getting some light rain..

You all have really seen a bunch of rain this week, haven't you? Some of the emergency management info I saw about the Los Olmos area was quite concerning. Hope everyone is ok.

[South Texas Storms]

I got a little over .50 inch at my parent's house in San Antonio during the past 2 days. It was a nice, steady, moderate rainfall that soaked into the grass

[Ntxw]

Some interesting signs week 2 and 3. Watch the far North this coming week, I'd suggest in the vicinity of Alaska and NW Canada.

[Ntxw]

To follow up, the guidance is shifting to major -EPO block, first of the season. Could be first widespread frost and freeze for the CONUS north of interstate 70, and perhaps first snowstorm for the central and northern plains.

[Rgv20]

So far today have received 5.09 inches of rain! Still getting some light rain..

You all have really seen a bunch of rain this week, haven't you? Some of the emergency management info I saw about the Los Olmos area was quite concerning. Hope everyone is ok.

Got an extra 1/2'' of Rain during the night on Friday.....September has really lived up to its name of being the wettest month for my area, so far have gotten about a foot of rain!

[gboudx]

Latest from Steve McCauley on the mid-week system:

The storm system we have been monitoring for the past few days is now just south of the coast of Alaska and has spun off a couple of pieces of energy that are rotating on its back side headed for the southern Gulf of Alaska. These will eventually merge and take a southeast dive into California. From there it will intensify and sweep into North Texas by Thursday.

At this time, it appears this system will bring a 50% coverage of measurable rain for our area with the best chances across the eastern half of north Texas. There is even a slight chance that some of the storms could achieve severe levels with very heavy rain, hail, and strong winds, but most storms should behave, at least in our area. East and Southeast Texas may have higher severe weather potential than we by Thursday evening.

Being more than 24 hours away from this event, projected rainfall totals are unreliable. Half of us will not get a single drop, others a light shower, and other heavy soaking downpours. That's the way the thunderstorm game is played

Until then, rain chances remain at zero as subsidence (widespread sinking air) will be taking over north Texas for the rest of the month.