ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[dhweather]

I'm wondering if this is going to be a Faux Nino?

[WPBWeather]

I'm wondering if this is going to be a Faux Nino?

We know Halloween is coming --perhaps the Ghost of El Nino is too?

[dexterlabio]

Atlantic followers must feel lucky that there's no official Nino so far. If there was, we would be very lucky to see a 'D' storm in September, given that we might end September this year without an 'F' storm.

[Ntxw]

Here is the latest ENSO blog from the CPC. Interesting the talk here is what many of us have talked about, the atmosphere already ahead of the Ocean in producing El Nino conditions across the globe, comparing it to 2009/10 Nino. This is opposite from Spring and early summer where the Ocean was there but the atmosphere was not responding.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... ready-warm

[WPBWeather]

Here is the latest ENSO blog from the CPC. Interesting the talk here is what many of us have talked about, the atmosphere already ahead of the Ocean in producing El Nino conditions across the globe, comparing it to 2009/10 Nino. This is opposite from Spring and early summer where the Ocean was there but the atmosphere was not responding.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... ready-warm

Its an interesting argument from one guy at Columbia--"El Nino-like conditions run ahead of an actual El Nino." It will be more interesting to see if that really explains why the old consensus from last year (Super El Nino) was so off base.

[HURRICANELONNY]

It ain't over till the fat lady sings:

http://phys.org/news/2014-09-fickle-el-nino.html

[asd123]

Here is the latest ENSO blog from the CPC. Interesting the talk here is what many of us have talked about, the atmosphere already ahead of the Ocean in producing El Nino conditions across the globe, comparing it to 2009/10 Nino. This is opposite from Spring and early summer where the Ocean was there but the atmosphere was not responding.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... ready-warm

Its an interesting argument from one guy at Columbia--"El Nino-like conditions run ahead of an actual El Nino." It will be more interesting to see if that really explains why the old consensus from last year (Super El Nino) was so off base.

Absolutely agree, SOI has been consistently negative, with both the 30 and 90 day at el nino threshold. But strangely enough the SST Anomalies have been stubborn to warm.

[Ptarmigan]

An El Nino that lasts more than a year is rare. It is rarer than an extremely strong El Nino. The last time we had an El Nino that lasted more than a year was 1986 to 1988. El Nino that stayed El Nino and did not go below the threshold of El Nino. The period from 1991 to 1994 had Neutral conditions, which does not make it a persistent El Nino.

[Hammy]

There is a secondary warm pool I'm noticing around the IDL, and given how quickly the current one came about it should join up with it within the next 4-6 weeks, so the warming should be able to sustain itself around that point.

[Yellow Evan]

An El Nino that lasts more than a year is rare. It is rarer than an extremely strong El Nino. The last time we had an El Nino that lasted more than a year was 1986 to 1988. El Nino that stayed El Nino and did not go below the threshold of El Nino. The period from 1991 to 1994 had Neutral conditions, which does not make it a persistent El Nino.

Models are showing it. And prior to 1986-88, there were 1968-70, 1913-14, 1949-32, and 195-59 that did what you described.

[Kingarabian]

An El Nino that lasts more than a year is rare. It is rarer than an extremely strong El Nino. The last time we had an El Nino that lasted more than a year was 1986 to 1988. El Nino that stayed El Nino and did not go below the threshold of El Nino. The period from 1991 to 1994 had Neutral conditions, which does not make it a persistent El Nino.

Models are showing it. And prior to 1986-88, there were 1968-70, 1913-14, 1949-32, and 195-59 that did what you described.

Models also showed a super strong El-Nino developing. I think when it comes to forecasting El-Nino, it's better to go with likelihood.

[Yellow Evan]

An El Nino that lasts more than a year is rare. It is rarer than an extremely strong El Nino. The last time we had an El Nino that lasted more than a year was 1986 to 1988. El Nino that stayed El Nino and did not go below the threshold of El Nino. The period from 1991 to 1994 had Neutral conditions, which does not make it a persistent El Nino.

Models are showing it. And prior to 1986-88, there were 1968-70, 1913-14, 1949-32, and 195-59 that did what you described.

Models also showed a super strong El-Nino developing. I think when it comes to forecasting El-Nino, it's better to go with likelihood.

Well, we've never gone this long with a 2 year El Nino in the sat era.

[Andrew92]

After this past year of predicting one of the strongest El Nino's since 1997, I'm not really trusting the models long-range with what will happen a year from now with the ENSO.

Yeah, 2015 might be an El Nino, but it's way too early to say right now. I would say we pretty much have an El Nino event going on right now, but with how up and down it's been nothing would surprise me by next year. We may even go La Nina next year for all I know.

I guess I would say, watch and consider what the models are saying, but take it with a grain of salt.

-Andrew92

[dexterlabio]

At this point, I won't be trusting the models that predicted a strong El Nino... there is one model that actually showed a temporary drop in Nino 3.4 before it went back up to 0.5C this month. Which one is that? And what's it showing for the next few months? It has the most reliable handle on ENSO this year...

[Yellow Evan]

At this point, I won't be trusting the models that predicted a strong El Nino... there is one model that actually showed a temporary drop in Nino 3.4 before it went back up to 0.5C this month. Which one is that? And what's it showing for the next few months? It has the most reliable handle on ENSO this year...

Both the CFS and Euro have showed both situations that you described.

[Hammy]

Out of curiousity, supposing we get a moderate El Nino, what sort of weather should the northern part of Georgia expect for the winter months?

[gigabite]

Out of curiousity, supposing we get a moderate El Nino, what sort of weather should the northern part of Georgia expect for the winter months?

rain & normal temperatures
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of ... ted_States

[gigabite]

a couple of defining points
1. An el Nino reduces the probability of a named Atlantic Tropical Storm by 25%
http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/%28Gh%29/g ... /enso.rxml
2. the period between el Nino's varies between 2 to 7 years
a 60% chance of an el Nino by December 2014 is a 40% chance that the el Nino will not develop until December 2016.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o

That being said the increase in rainfall along the Gulf Coast would seem to indicate a potential for the diminishing of the drought in southern California by the same definition with out a full blown el Nino. I would think that the more concerning Pacific anomaly would be that warming off Northern China over to Alaska.

[Ntxw]

Out of curiousity, supposing we get a moderate El Nino, what sort of weather should the northern part of Georgia expect for the winter months?

It can vary, there are a lot of other factors in the far north to consider but the general rule for the southern US, in any El Nino, is cooler than average and wetter than normal from California to the Carolinas. Georgia can be tricky as well due to the mountains. They also increase the probabilities of seeing ice/snow due to the numerous storms crossing the southern tier, and eventually one or several will hook up with the cold air. If you can recall 2009/2010 that was the last true El Nino winter.

La Nina's are the opposite, they tend to produce warmer than normal winters and drier than normal. They often feature a southeast ridge during the winter months.

[Yellow Evan]

a couple of defining points
1. An el Nino reduces the probability of a named Atlantic Tropical Storm by 25%
http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/%28Gh%29/g ... /enso.rxml
2. the period between el Nino's varies between 2 to 7 years
a 60% chance of an el Nino by December 2014 is a 40% chance that the el Nino will not develop until December 2016.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o

That being said the increase in rainfall along the Gulf Coast would seem to indicate a potential for the diminishing of the drought in southern California by the same definition with out a full blown el Nino. I would think that the more concerning Pacific anomaly would be that warming off Northern China over to Alaska.

Regarding El Nino Atlantic hurricane activity, that is obvious, but some El Ninos have stuff at high-latitudes E of Bermuda, something despite the El Nino-like effects, we have no really had (sure storms have intensified there, but not actually developed) Since 1950, we've never gone more than 5 years without an El Nino. And what's your bias for the third statement? Why are you eliminating any chance at one for 2015 and most of 2016? If we get no El Nino, all the heat will focus to the subsurface, and sooner or later, we'll get one, since the SST's on the subsurface will make its way to the surface.