Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[Ntxw]

I could toss in 1983 as well, though based on MEI, you could argue it was an El Nino for 2 years. Even 1992 is iffy, as the El Nino dissipated in mid July. 1990 and 1978 were warm neutrals, I've seen 1990-91 (and 1992-93) listed as El Nino's by other agencies while 1978-9 had a low subtropical jet that was Nino-like.

1983 was officially declared La Nina later in the year, but this one though was still reeling from the super 1982 Nino in the atmosphere (there's that Nina after nino effect even in a quiet season; Alicia). 1992-1993 is not an El Nino because the CPC classifies an ENSO event as 5 consecutive trimonthlies must be achieved to be one. MJJ 1992 probably still had residual El Nino conditions in the atmosphere. Both years had a full calendar of +PDO readings. To be clear, 1990-1994 was not one long El Nino or multiyear Nino it was two different Nino's (1991 and 1994) separated by two neutral years (1992 and 1993).

[ConvergenceZone]

Conditions were actually unfavorable throughout 1994: there were weaker waves and far more shear/dry air than this. October wind shear was immense as well, as the entire month went by without so much as a tropical depression. My point is not that October/November are going to be active, but it's a bit hasty to say with absolute certainty that because nothing is forming right now, that it is impossible for anything to form later. The same was being said a week before Cristobal, a week before Dolly with regards to the Gulf, and a week before Edouard. In all likelihood the MJO will come around at least one more time this year, and in all likelihood, as with the earlier occurrances this year, will likely help induce at least one more storm between the second week of October and the end of the season.

Please point to the evidence where it shows there were weaker waves in October in 1994 and then I'll believe it.......I just get tired of people saying that oh 2014 is perfectly normal in activity...Nobody wants to admit that it's unusual to be only at letter "E" going into October.... I also notice the numbers are coming down...Before people were saying 3 to 5 more storms, then 1 to 4 more storms, now people are only saying 1 to 2 more storms. Why is that?

[Hammy]

Please point to the evidence where it shows there were weaker waves in October in 1994 and then I'll believe it.......I just get tired of people saying that oh 2014 is perfectly normal in activity...Nobody wants to admit that it's unusual to be only at letter "E" going into October.... I also notice the numbers are coming down...Before people were saying 3 to 5 more storms, then 1 to 4 more storms, now people are only saying 1 to 2 more storms. Why is that?

You can't go into how October's waves compare to another year considering the fact that we are still in September. Once October gets here, and we see real time how the waves are (since I don't think any users here have psychic powers) then we'll start comparing Octobers.

Nobody has said that going into October is not unusual, but 1995-2005 should not be used as the standard by which we compare everything to either, nor should 2014 be treated as if it's this never before seen quiet season. The activity we've seen this season is more common than certain users would like to sensationalize it as--a one in five occurrance since 1960 does indicate that it is not all that uncommon. And yes, as time goes on, the numbers are going to come down, especially since most of the 3-5 forecasts were made in late August or the start of September, and we've already had two of those 3-5 form.

I also think some got their hopes or expectations up too much given the seeming impatience in some posts (I don't understand the "now or never" as if nature is being given a timetable that it's expected to abide by.) The season was forecast to be below normal, and to me, has performed exactly as it was expected to.

And I still think too big a deal is being made of the number of storms that form vs number of hurricanes, considering several of the same people complain of "wasted names" when we have numerous weak systems.

I would also like to point out that this was four days prior to Edouard forming:

Sure we had the cat 2 storm, but we are getting ready to go into the middle of September with only 4 named storms with no potential named storms in sight, just a couple of invests that will probably be dissolved by dry air within the next few days....

never say never

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I agree. I remember quite a few people were saying September was definitely going to pick up in activity and were predicting anywhere from 3-5 storms for the month. And then 2-3 for October. Might not be a "a lot" but definite increase in numbers which isn't happening.

The same was being said a week before Cristobal, a week before Dolly with regards to the Gulf, and a week before Edouard

And in regards to the gulf nothing has formed or even threatened since dolly. And conditions are only becoming more hostile as the days come and go and fall approaches so think the gulf is pretty closed for business as well.

[ConvergenceZone]

You can't go into how October's waves compare to another year considering the fact that we are still in September. Once October gets here, and we see real time how the waves are (since I don't think any users here have psychic powers) then we'll start comparing Octobers.

Nobody has said that going into October is not unusual, but 1995-2005 should not be used as the standard by which we compare everything to either, nor should 2014 be treated as if it's this never before seen quiet season. The activity we've seen this season is more common than certain users would like to sensationalize it as--a one in five occurrance since 1960 does indicate that it is not all that uncommon. And yes, as time goes on, the numbers are going to come down, especially since most of the 3-5 forecasts were made in late August or the start of September, and we've already had two of those 3-5 form.

I also think some got their hopes or expectations up too much given the seeming impatience in some posts (I don't understand the "now or never" as if nature is being given a timetable that it's expected to abide by.) The season was forecast to be below normal, and to me, has performed exactly as it was expected to.

And I still think too big a deal is being made of the number of storms that form vs number of hurricanes, considering several of the same people complain of "wasted names" when we have numerous weak systems.

If numbers don't mean anything, then why does the hurricane prediction center even attempt at forecasting the number of storms??..... and regarding the prediction of 3 to 5 storms....Many were saying this AFTER the "E" storm had formed....So my point being is that the numbers forecasted have come down after the E storm has formed...... Not many people would admit that they would think we would have only made it to storm "E" by now...Heck just looking at the thread at the start of the season where people were predicting the amount of storms this year. That's the only thread you need to look at really.........I'm the opposite of you, I don't give a hoot about the types of storms that have formed up to now, I'm talking about "quantity" since numbers are what's fixated on from the NHC as well..........Not once did I think that we wouldn't have any hurricanes this year. It's more about how far we would make it through the alphabet....My argument has never been about whether or not we would get a hurricane this year... Heck, even on the weather channel the last month they've been saying how unusual this season is compared the amount of storms that were expected.....This season is definitely not typical..... I imagine that if we only made it to letter "B" some people would still think that it was completely normal... Nobody expected 20 storms this year, but I almost guarantee you that almost everyone expected more than 5...

[Yellow Evan]

It honestly isn't that surprising we have had only 5 storms. We don't have an El Nino, which would likely help the subtropics if we had one.

BTW, idk why people are predicting 0 storms form here on out. 2013 even got a couple late season ones.

[Hammy]

@ConvergenceZone

The five storms we've had are not stone as the final total, as there are still over two months left in the season, making plenty of room (especially as reliable models only go out about a week) for a few more storms. And nobody at all is saying this is a typical season, but pointing out that 20% rate of this activity over time does not make it particularly rare does not quite equal saying this sort of activity is the norm. And while very quiet or very active years themselves are not normal, it is normal to have them scattered about. Too many were expecting the Atlantic to permanently be 1995-2005 analog...

[psyclone]

I'm baffled by some of the spaz out posts in this thread. It's almost like "quiet season rage" is infecting some members. some people are hype-sters and push an agenda unlikely to verify. we have these sideline cheerleaders every year so it should surprise no one and is certainly not worth getting bent out of shape over. then we have our beloved bears, a group that is growing in both number and boldness thanks to an incredible run of good fortune. They too are destined to overstay their welcome at the inn and overplay their hand. In fact, some of our most famous bears have overplayed their hand THIS YEAR of all years. Imagine what they'll look like when we return to normal or, gasp, above normal (as astonishing as it seems it will happen!)? Even though this season has been largely a snooze fest it is unlikely at this point that we have seen our last storm. 1 or 2 more is probably more likely than 0. I would guess the likelihood of 0 more storms as a 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 probability. respectable but not the most likely. My preseason guess was 7-3-1 IIRC. I've already busted low on hurricanes (although I'm heartened when recalling alleged hurricane Bertha) I suspect this overall guess won't be too far off the mark. Look at what just happened in Cabo and appreciate the break nature has provided. I certainly am.

[Ptarmigan]

It honestly isn't that surprising we have had only 5 storms. We don't have an El Nino, which would likely help the subtropics if we had one.

BTW, idk why people are predicting 0 storms form here on out. 2013 even got a couple late season ones.

It is not over until it is over on November 30. We are entering October and there have been surprises.

There have been deadly hurricanes in October and November like Great Hurricane of 1780, Mitch, Great Cuba Hurricane of 1932, or Gordon (1994). Nothing is known about 1780 in terms of El Nino or any other atmospheric conditions. 1932 had a developing La Nina. 1994 was heading into El Nino, while 1998 had La Nina despite a strong El Nino earlier that year.

[Ptarmigan]

I'm baffled by some of the spaz out posts in this thread. It's almost like "quiet season rage" is infecting some members. some people are hype-sters and push an agenda unlikely to verify. we have these sideline cheerleaders every year so it should surprise no one and is certainly not worth getting bent out of shape over. then we have our beloved bears, a group that is growing in both number and boldness thanks to an incredible run of good fortune. They too are destined to overstay their welcome at the inn and overplay their hand. In fact, some of our most famous bears have overplayed their hand THIS YEAR of all years. Imagine what they'll look like when we return to normal or, gasp, above normal (as astonishing as it seems it will happen!)? Even though this season has been largely a snooze fest it is unlikely at this point that we have seen our last storm. 1 or 2 more is probably more likely than 0. I would guess the likelihood of 0 more storms as a 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 probability. respectable but not the most likely. My preseason guess was 7-3-1 IIRC. I've already busted low on hurricanes (although I'm heartened when recalling alleged hurricane Bertha) I suspect this overall guess won't be too far off the mark. Look at what just happened in Cabo and appreciate the break nature has provided. I certainly am.

I didn't expect an active season this year either. Next year however.............

[Yellow Evan]

It honestly isn't that surprising we have had only 5 storms. We don't have an El Nino, which would likely help the subtropics if we had one.

BTW, idk why people are predicting 0 storms form here on out. 2013 even got a couple late season ones.

It is not over until it is over on November 30. We are entering October and there have been surprises.

There have been deadly hurricanes in October and November like Great Hurricane of 1780, Mitch, Great Cuba Hurricane of 1932, or Gordon (1994). Nothing is known about 1780 in terms of El Nino or any other atmospheric conditions. 1932 had a developing La Nina. 1994 was heading into El Nino, while 1998 had La Nina despite a strong El Nino earlier that year.

It's pretty much over. 1994 is the only active late season developing El Nino and that was a Modoki, and that was likely due to an AMO switch. And even then, 1994 did not have a single major hurricane.

[Hammy]

It honestly isn't that surprising we have had only 5 storms. We don't have an El Nino, which would likely help the subtropics if we had one.

BTW, idk why people are predicting 0 storms form here on out. 2013 even got a couple late season ones.

It is not over until it is over on November 30. We are entering October and there have been surprises.

There have been deadly hurricanes in October and November like Great Hurricane of 1780, Mitch, Great Cuba Hurricane of 1932, or Gordon (1994). Nothing is known about 1780 in terms of El Nino or any other atmospheric conditions. 1932 had a developing La Nina. 1994 was heading into El Nino, while 1998 had La Nina despite a strong El Nino earlier that year.

It's pretty much over. 1994 is the only active late season developing El Nino and that was a Modoki, and that was likely due to an AMO switch. And even then, 1994 did not have a single major hurricane.

1997 even had two storms in October, so I'm agreeing with it not being over until Nov 30.

[Yellow Evan]

1997 even had two storms in October, so I'm agreeing with it not being over until Nov 30.

How strong were the storms in 1997 (which BTW may have had 2 mid to late season missing systems near Europe, not sure if it's been talked about on here before)? This season is over in the sense that it is unlikely nothing will happen, but will there be more storms? Probs at high latitudes.

[cycloneye]

1997 even had two storms in October, so I'm agreeing with it not being over until Nov 30.

How strong were the storms in 1997 (which BTW may have had 2 mid to late season missing systems near Europe, not sure if it's been talked about on here before)? This season is over in the sense that it is unlikely nothing will happen, but will there be more storms? Probs at high latitudes.

The last storms of 1997 were 40kt ones above 20N.

1997 North Atlantic season

[Yellow Evan]

1997 even had two storms in October, so I'm agreeing with it not being over until Nov 30.

How strong were the storms in 1997 (which BTW may have had 2 mid to late season missing systems near Europe, not sure if it's been talked about on here before)? This season is over in the sense that it is unlikely nothing will happen, but will there be more storms? Probs at high latitudes.

The last storms of 1997 were 40kt ones above 20N.

1997 North Atlantic season

Exactly. What's so amazing about watching a frontal TS in the middle of nowhere?

[Ntxw]

There is expansive sinking air still prevalent across the Western Hemisphere, reason for much quiet. EPAC of course is defying it with Rachel, Atlantic is lacking seeding. Meaning no real tropical waves around, the AEW season is pretty much over at this point and things coming off Africa is becoming more and more unlikely to form. It will have to come in the form of fronts or monsoon if shear is low.



May see a weak KW signal come second week of October but at this point I'm unsure how effective KW's are in the Atlantic due to intra-seasonal changes.

[Hammy]

Exactly. What's so amazing about watching a frontal TS in the middle of nowhere?

Storms are storms, and it would still be something to track.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Exactly. What's so amazing about watching a frontal TS in the middle of nowhere?

So they can say see I told you the season wasn't dead and we would get another one or two storms in October.

[SeGaBob]

It honestly isn't that surprising we have had only 5 storms. We don't have an El Nino, which would likely help the subtropics if we had one.

BTW, idk why people are predicting 0 storms form here on out. 2013 even got a couple late season ones.

I don't know why people keep saying things like this. We have a El Nino... just not officially declared yet. There's even El Nino conditions going on now in some areas. All you have to do is read the Enso updates thread.



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[Yellow Evan]

We have a El Nino... just not officially declared yet. There's even El Nino conditions going on now in some areas.

Oh for sure, just a weak one.