Global model runs discussion

[jlauderdal]

Folks,
It's back on the 18Z M.U. lol.

i see the MU has a polar airmass modeled, maybe it will do better with that then the tropicis

[Frank2]

Latest GFS shows the first significant cold front of the Fall clearing most of Florida by Day 10 (October 6, or about 2 weeks early)...

[psyclone]

Latest GFS shows the first significant cold front of the Fall clearing most of Florida by Day 10 (October 6, or about 2 weeks early)...

That's not consistent with the climate prediction center's 8-14 day outlook which shows Florida (and all of the east coast, for that matter) still basking in above normal temps. I would guess the GFS (shocker) is out to lunch. The tropical season is still probably shot though.

[cycloneye]

A system forming in the SW Caribbean in mid October is a normal thing late in the season.What GFS shows is something forming in that area as I understand a cold Front will dip pretty far south around 10 days from now so maybe that model is right this time. Only problem is the long range.

[TheStormExpert]

A system forming in the SW Caribbean in mid October is a normal thing late in the season.What GFS shows is something forming in that area as I understand a cold Front will dip pretty far south around 10 days from now so maybe that model is right this time. Only problem is the long range.

http://oi57.tinypic.com/2lnv7h1.jpg

Yeah, but the GFS has been showing a TC in the Western/SW Caribbean for weeks it seems. The fact that it's been crying wolf for weeks makes it hard believe this actually happening.

[HURRICANELONNY]

It wil form. Just not this year.

[Hammy]

I'm not entirely sure if this goes here or should have a separate thread, but how do the GEM and GFS hold up as far as their temperature forecasts overall?

[Frank2]

GFS still shows a cold front moving SE across FL by Day 8-10, but more of a MP air mass than Polar so weaker than 24 hr ago...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Not that its worth much but our nws office is already talking about it in the long range for next weekend as well. Says some of our northern areas may not make it out of the 70's for highs. Of course a week ago they were also calling for rain for fri/sat/sun measured in inches for us as well. Well friday passed with inly some clouds and we have a 30% and 50% chance today and tomorrow So take it for what its worth.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS has been showing something from the monsoon trough the last couple of days for around October 8th but even its ensembles are starting to agree with it and it seems as though the GEM model is slowly coming aboard but until the Euro starts showing a reflection of some kind its hard to take the GFS and its ensembles seriously

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Yellow Evan]

You know how the GFS is with ghost long rangers at this time of year.

[somethingfunny]

I'm not entirely sure if this goes here or should have a separate thread, but how do the GEM and GFS hold up as far as their temperature forecasts overall?

I don't know the answer to this but I can say that the answer will probably vary wildly depending on the specific region being forecast.

[Hammy]

I'm not entirely sure if this goes here or should have a separate thread, but how do the GEM and GFS hold up as far as their temperature forecasts overall?

I don't know the answer to this but I can say that the answer will probably vary wildly depending on the specific region being forecast.

Specifically for the southeast (as I'm in north Georgia.)

[boca]

It looks like the GFS comedy show is still on. They have a strong huricane hitting SE Florida.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?imag ... &scrolly=0

[floridasun78]

It looks like the GFS comedy show is still on. They have a strong huricane hitting SE Florida.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?imag ... &scrolly=0

dont like gfs that day before my birthday

[Alyono]

One should only use Model Uccelleni for entertainment

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah if the GFS was correct like it used to be we would of had at least a dozen hurricane hits so far this season here in south Florida alone! It's truly sad and aggravating that it had to become of this.

[TheStormExpert]

It looks like the GFS comedy show is still on. They have a strong huricane hitting SE Florida.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?imag ... &scrolly=0

dont like gfs that day before my birthday

That's two days before my birthday.

But don't worry the GFS hasn't gotten anything right (at least as far as I know) this season.

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS still shows the idea of a late season intense hurricane getting pulled out of the W. Carribean and heading towards FL and the SE U.S. (Further west than 12z run though) in the extreme long range (384hrs.) on October 14th. Knowing how horrible the GFS has performed this season (especially in the W. Carribean and Tropical Atlantic region) I'm betting the storm (most likely a Phantom storm) will be dropped in a few runs at most. Still thought it was worth mentioning for the sake of it, and the fact that it's quite entertaining!

[SFLcane]