EPAC: SIMON - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 90, 2014092712, , BEST, 0, 117N, 940W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2014092718, , BEST, 0, 117N, 944W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2014092800, , BEST, 0, 118N, 948W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2014092806, , BEST, 0, 119N, 951W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2014092812, , BEST, 0, 120N, 955W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 0, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 90, 2014092818, , BEST, 0, 121N, 958W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 0, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT TWO:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the coast of southeastern Mexico southward for several
hundred miles is associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form around the middle
part of the week while the system drifts west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Last two sHIPS outputs

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902014 09/28/14 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 33 37 44 50 55 58 61 62 63
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 33 37 44 50 55 58 61 62 63
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 37 43 49 56 62
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 25 28 26 20 17 17 10 13 7 9 5 9 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -4 0 -4 -1 -4 1 -2
SHEAR DIR 62 60 60 60 46 47 36 31 31 35 18 28 6
SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.5 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 154 153 154 156 160 160 157 155 149 146
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 9
700-500 MB RH 77 78 78 77 76 76 76 76 77 79 79 81 81
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 20 20 20 18 11 11 21 37 22 31 18 38 10
200 MB DIV 23 30 64 65 49 87 78 104 86 89 67 67 39
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -5 -1 -3 -1 -5 -3
LAND (KM) 402 400 402 416 432 425 382 328 248 172 125 119 201
LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.2 12.7 13.4 14.5 15.6 16.6 17.2 17.7
LONG(DEG W) 95.8 96.2 96.6 97.1 97.7 98.5 99.0 99.5 100.2 101.0 102.0 103.6 105.8
STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 4 4 5 7 7 7 10 11
HEAT CONTENT 30 26 21 16 12 12 17 25 34 21 19 20 14

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902014 09/28/14 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 36 41 46 50 53 55 55
V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 36 41 46 50 53 55 55
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 40 44 49
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 23 25 27 26 20 15 17 9 15 10 9 9 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -1 1 -2 -2 -3 -1 -3 0 -2
SHEAR DIR 56 61 59 60 60 39 48 29 45 24 51 35 25
SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.6
POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 152 152 153 154 156 157 156 154 150 150
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.1 -52.9 -52.2 -52.8 -52.0 -52.8 -52.1 -52.9
TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 6 6 7 6 8 7 9 7 9 7
700-500 MB RH 79 77 78 78 77 75 76 76 77 79 80 81 83
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 21 21 21 18 17 7 18 29 25 25 20 22 7
200 MB DIV 39 24 29 61 60 73 85 86 99 77 88 91 67
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 -2 -1
LAND (KM) 418 406 400 417 437 456 441 408 363 308 276 292 337
LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.9 12.2 12.7 13.4 14.3 15.0 15.4 15.6
LONG(DEG W) 95.5 96.0 96.4 96.9 97.4 98.4 99.2 99.7 100.3 101.1 102.0 103.2 104.8
STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 5 7 8
HEAT CONTENT 33 28 24 18 13 10 13 18 27 29 24 22 18

Shear should hold this in check for 36 hours or so.

[cycloneye]

90E SSD Floater

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT TWO:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the coast of southeastern Mexico southward for several
hundred miles is associated with an elongated area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become conducive
for development over the next several days, and a tropical
depression could form around the middle part of the week while the
system drifts west-northwestward or northwestward just offshore of
the south-central coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

EP, 90, 2014092900, , BEST, 0, 122N, 961W, 25, 1009, DB

[Yellow Evan]

Keeping this weak due to lack of GFS support. GFS is in la la land IMO by missing this. Has to due with the suppressed Kelvin Wave.

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902014 09/29/14 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 36 42 48 53 55 57 58 59
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 36 42 48 53 55 57 58 59
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 38 43 48 53 57
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 26 23 20 16 15 12 9 10 8 6 10 6 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -3 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3
SHEAR DIR 56 55 46 43 34 32 12 24 31 37 50 69 79
SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.7 30.0 29.8 29.4 29.0 28.6 28.2 28.0
POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 155 157 160 163 162 158 154 150 147 145
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.9 -52.1 -52.8 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 8 7 9 8 11 8 11 8 10
700-500 MB RH 78 78 79 78 77 78 79 78 77 79 78 78 78
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 18 22 19 9 8 17 30 22 33 32 26 21 19
200 MB DIV 31 61 64 67 78 80 90 66 75 58 46 38 41
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -3 -2 -6
LAND (KM) 389 373 362 348 333 272 214 148 80 51 19 109 277
LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.6 14.4 15.4 16.5 17.5 18.2 18.5 19.0
LONG(DEG W) 96.1 96.5 96.9 97.3 97.7 98.5 99.2 100.0 101.0 102.1 103.5 105.5 107.9
STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 11 12
HEAT CONTENT 27 25 23 23 24 31 46 32 20 18 10 24 9

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT TWO:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the coast of southern Mexico southeastward for several
hundred miles is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for development during the next several days, and a
tropical depression could form later this week while the system
drifts west-northwestward or northwestward. Regardless of
development, this system could produce locally heavy rains over
portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash floods and mud
slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT TWO:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico, has increased this morning. Environmental conditions are
conducive for additional development during the next several days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while
the system drifts west-northwestward or northwestward. Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance could produce
locally heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could
cause flash floods and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

90E INVEST 140929 1800 13.5N 97.1W EPAC 25 1008

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT TWO up to 40% - 90%

Satellite-derived winds and nearby surface observations indicate
that an elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, is gradually becoming better
defined. Although thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized,
environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system drifts west-northwestward or
northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance could produce locally heavy rains over portions of
southern Mexico that could cause flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

18z SHIPS outpout brought this to Baja.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

EP, 90, 2014093000, , BEST, 0, 137N, 971W, 25, 1008, LO

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902014 09/30/14 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 44 54 63 71 75 82 86 90 91
V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 44 54 63 71 75 82 86 90 91
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 38 45 53 60 65 67 68 68
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 16 15 12 9 7 8 5 8 8 2 3 4 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -3 0 -1 -1 -3 0 0 0 -1 -2
SHEAR DIR 41 45 52 63 39 26 56 69 73 77 54 234 179
SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.8 27.7 26.8
POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 159 161 161 162 157 153 151 146 144 143 133
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -51.8 -52.4 -51.5 -52.2 -51.3 -52.0 -50.7
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 9 8 11 9 11 7 8 6 6
700-500 MB RH 78 78 78 76 79 78 79 78 77 76 73 72 66
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 12 12 17 19 22 26
850 MB ENV VOR 11 18 25 23 31 37 47 53 62 41 51 38 42
200 MB DIV 77 92 73 77 93 64 81 58 60 50 67 38 91
700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -12 -9 0
LAND (KM) 235 205 175 152 140 107 64 22 44 166 311 402 557
LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.8 16.8 17.8 18.7 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.2
LONG(DEG W) 97.1 97.6 98.0 98.5 98.9 100.0 101.3 102.8 104.6 106.9 109.9 113.1 116.1
STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 6 7 8 10 10 13 15 15 14
HEAT CONTENT 45 47 52 55 54 27 18 18 24 12 12 11 1

[Yellow Evan]

An elongated area of low pressure continues a few hundred
miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Although the shower activity has
changed little in organization during the past several hours,
environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression
to form later this week while the system moves toward the
west-northwest or northwest near 10 mph. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this disturbance will likely produce locally
heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash
flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

An elongated area of low pressure continues a few hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Although the shower
activity has changed little in organization during the past several
hours, environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical
depression to form tomorrow or Thursday while the system moves
toward the west-northwest or northwest near 10 mph. Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will likely produce
locally heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could
cause flash flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

EP, 90, 2014093018, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1011W, 25, 1007, LO

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT TWO:

An elongated area of low pressure a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico has shown little change in organization
during the past several hours. Environmental conditions conditions
are favorable for a tropical depression to form tomorrow or Thursday
while the system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest near
10 mph. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance
will likely produce locally heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico that could cause flash flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[CrazyC83]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902014 09/30/14 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 44 54 63 71 75 82 86 90 91
V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 44 54 63 71 75 82 86 90 91
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 38 45 53 60 65 67 68 68
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 16 15 12 9 7 8 5 8 8 2 3 4 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -3 0 -1 -1 -3 0 0 0 -1 -2
SHEAR DIR 41 45 52 63 39 26 56 69 73 77 54 234 179
SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.8 27.7 26.8
POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 159 161 161 162 157 153 151 146 144 143 133
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -51.8 -52.4 -51.5 -52.2 -51.3 -52.0 -50.7
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 9 8 11 9 11 7 8 6 6
700-500 MB RH 78 78 78 76 79 78 79 78 77 76 73 72 66
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 12 12 17 19 22 26
850 MB ENV VOR 11 18 25 23 31 37 47 53 62 41 51 38 42
200 MB DIV 77 92 73 77 93 64 81 58 60 50 67 38 91
700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -12 -9 0
LAND (KM) 235 205 175 152 140 107 64 22 44 166 311 402 557
LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.8 16.8 17.8 18.7 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.2
LONG(DEG W) 97.1 97.6 98.0 98.5 98.9 100.0 101.3 102.8 104.6 106.9 109.9 113.1 116.1
STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 6 7 8 10 10 13 15 15 14
HEAT CONTENT 45 47 52 55 54 27 18 18 24 12 12 11 1

That is one dangerous setup. Major hurricane potential?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

EP, 90, 2014100100, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1017W, 25, 1005, LO