Global model runs discussion

[Alyono]

wasn't 1983 the tail end of the mega el niño?

[Yellow Evan]

But the 2014 el nino is a bust.

Why are you so sure? The MEI rankings beg to differ.

Not really. They (MEI) seem to be all over the place. Its hard to understand why we have not had and still, today, do not have an el nino, but we should face the facts that the forecasts for one in 2014 have been VERY wrong.

MEI rankings have been around .8 the past few months. IMO it's easy to understand why the strong El Nino never happened. Lack of WWB's.

[blp]

Can we move on from the El Nino stuff.

The FIM, CMC, Navgem and GFS are all hinting at development in the W. Carib. in the mid range 144-240hr time. Timeframe has come down. Let's see if we get better agreement from the other models.

[TheStormExpert]

Can we move on from the El Nino stuff.

The FIM, CMC, Navgem and GFS are all hinting at development in the W. Carib. in the mid range 144-240hr time. Timeframe has come down. Let's see if we get better agreement from the other models.

Could you post graphics of these runs?

[cycloneye]

This thread is about posting the model runs and discussing about them. For all things ENSO related,you can visit the ENSO Updates thread and there you can discuss about that topic.

Thanks for your cooperation.

[weatherfanatic]

WOW, does the 18z GFS give my area (NYC NJ southern new england and obx quite a coastal from the progged storm by GFS. Do we have any other support or is it not in range yet? Can we post images from tropicaltidbits.com or is that not allowed, have not posted images before and was not sure what we are, and are not allowed to post.

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS woud be quite the hurricane or at least strong tropical storm just inland up the eastern seaboard but the one thing I've noticed is its bringing the development timetable within 7 days which is within the realm of possibility but this area could just as likely go inland or develop on the Pacific side

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

The 18zGFS woud be quite the hurricane or at least strong tropical storm just inland up the eastern seaboard but the one thing I've noticed is its bringing the development timetable within 7 days which is within the realm of possibility but this area could just as likely go inland or develop on the Pacific side

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

What are you talking about? All I see on the 18z GFS is a moderate TS heading out of the NW Caribbean into the NE Gulf/Big Bend FL region then up the East Coast in the long range. It still pushes this so called "Phantom Storm" back each and every day that it actually shows it.

Could you please post a graphic of what you see?

[LarryWx]

WOW, does the 18z GFS give my area (NYC NJ southern new england and obx quite a coastal from the progged storm by GFS. Do we have any other support or is it not in range yet? Can we post images from tropicaltidbits.com or is that not allowed, have not posted images before and was not sure what we are, and are not allowed to post.

Here's my take fwiw: Today's 0Z/6Z/12Z GFS and 0Z/12Z Euro all essentially had nada. However, for entertainment/record keeping, the 18Z of the newly designated Crazy Uncle and recently designated "Model U" (sounds like an old Ford ) is back to a 10/10 genesis of a TC in the SW Caribbean. This time, it hauls it off much more quickly, further west vs. prior runs to just north of the tip of the Yucatan on 10/15, and then accelerates it NNEward as a TS to a hit on the FL Big Bend early on 10/16 at 996 mb. This is then followed by it rocketing up the eastern seaboard 10/16-7. All fwiw, especially considering the lack of consistency on genesis and the continued lack of Euro support.

[TheStormExpert]

WOW, does the 18z GFS give my area (NYC NJ southern new england and obx quite a coastal from the progged storm by GFS. Do we have any other support or is it not in range yet? Can we post images from tropicaltidbits.com or is that not allowed, have not posted images before and was not sure what we are, and are not allowed to post.

Here's my take fwiw: Today's 0Z/6Z/12Z GFS and 0Z/12Z Euro all essentially had nada. However, for entertainment/record keeping, the 18Z of the newly designated Crazy Uncle and recently designated "Model U" (sounds like an old Ford ) is back to a 10/10 genesis of a TC in the SW Caribbean. This time, it hauls it off much more quickly, further west vs. prior runs to just north of the tip of the Yucatan on 10/15, and then accelerates it NNEward as a TS to a hit on the FL Big Bend early on 10/16 at 996 mb. This is then followed by it rocketing up the eastern seaboard 10/16-7. All fwiw, especially considering the lack of consistency on genesis and the continued lack of Euro support.

Yeah, I wouldn't buy into anything until the Euro bites, which may never happen the way I see it.

So sick and tired of the GFS's (Global Fantasy System) tricks, I know it's October but come on!

[Ntxw]

Well going back 10 days in this thread this week was supposed to be quite active, the GFS (various runs) had a Carib cruiser, Gulf Cane, and SW Carib hurricane for this week. Even the Euro showed a TS making landfall in the N. gulf in one of its runs. Per TWO there is no expected Atantic tropical cyclone formation within 5 days. Hard to trust these models, nothing new.

[Blown Away]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html
06z GFS has weak TS moving into Florida Panhandle at 312 hrs...


FIM has strong TS moving into Tampa at 294 hours...


CMC shows a TS/Low developing in the SW Caribbean at 180 hours...


NAVGEM shows a TS/Low developing in the SW Caribbean at 180 hours...

[cycloneye]

http://i59.tinypic.com/2uh0h7d.jpg
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html
06z GFS has weak TS moving into Florida Panhandle at 312 hrs...

If I see the timing from GFS right when it begins is at 120 hours north of Panama.

[blp]

http://i59.tinypic.com/2uh0h7d.jpg
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html
06z GFS has weak TS moving into Florida Panhandle at 312 hrs...

If I see the timing from GFS right when it begins is at 120 hours north of Panama.

[]http://oi62.tinypic.com/282olz4.jpg[/img]

Yes, it has been bringing the timeframe down. The Euro is still the stubborn hold out or could be the smart one again

Well, IMO this is one of the last chances for the GFS to redeem itself or it could fail again miserably.

I think the wave currently over the E. Carribean slowly moving west may be the catalyst to get things going.

[Hurricaneman]

The track on the 12zGFS is similar in Cuba and Florida to a really bad hurricane Charley 2004 and since it is 300hrs out its most likely to change but the thing that can be taken away from this is although not a low yet at 72hrs things start coming together on the 12zGFS with the combination of the area of festering disturbed weather and the tropical wave in the Eastern Caribbean

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[LarryWx]

As suggested by hurricaneman, it is getting a little more interesting today. Today's 12Z GFS is the 4th in a row showing a TC genesis ~10/10 in the SW Caribbean (also, similar timing vs. those runs from five days back fwiw...i.e., it hasn't slipped back) and impacting somewhere within the central to NE Gulf coast 10/16 before rocketing NNE to the NE US on 10/17. This is quite consistent timing. Although this is still in the for mainly entertainment category, that assessment could start to change pretty signficantly in my mind if, say, the GFS runs on Sunday continue to show ~10/10 SW Caribbean genesis as well as a US Gulf hit ~10/16 and especially if the Euro starts supporting this. We'll see.

[Blown Away]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html
12z GFS has a 1999 Irene type run through Florida up to the Carolinas...

[weatherfanatic]

Yes except on the 12z it hammers the northeast as a phased coastal low or non tropical entity. Somewhat like Irene in 2011. Kinda looks the same too. Alot to iron out still so faqr off its killing me to know what happens lol. If the GFS fails yet again for me it will lose almost all credibility, however maybe if will be different in the winter. Wait and see is all we can do now. Would be one heck of a storm for alot of people if it followed the 12z track or for that many of the runs it has taken up the EC from FL.

[SFLcane]

[weatherfanatic]

How do you post a image without posting a link?