WPAC: PHANFONE - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

This thing has an excellent massive outflow aloft...Inner core issues likely preventing this from rapidly intensifying again...

[euro6208]

Another view of that mighty small eye...

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 030611

A. TYPHOON 18W (PHANFONE)

B. 03/0532Z

C. 23.2N

D. 134.7E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/6.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
(+0.5 ADJUSTMENT FOR BLACK) YIELDS A DT OF 5.5. MET AND PT WERE
5.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/0038Z 22.3N 135.5E MMHS


LONG

TXPQ21 KNES 030332
TCSWNP

A. 18W (PHANFONE)

B. 03/0301Z

C. 22.8N

D. 135.2E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/W0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...DT OF 5.5 IS BASED ON OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B EMBEDDED
IN LG AFTER A PLUS 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET IS 5.0 AND PT IS 5.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 OCT 2014 Time : 053000 UTC
Lat : 23:18:06 N Lon : 134:57:25 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 932.7mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 5.4 4.9

Center Temp : -53.7C Cloud Region Temp : -70.6C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 142km
- Environmental MSLP : 1000mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.5 degrees

[Alyono]

very well could be a 120 kt typhoon based upon the satellite imagery

[euro6208]

2014OCT03 163200 6.3 925.8 122.2 6.2 6.3 6.3 NO LIMIT ON OFF 7.20 -74.36 EYE/L 41 IR 60.4 24.76 -133.50 SPRL MTSAT2 31.7

At least 125 knots...

[Alyono]

and what in the world is JT doing this time. How do they justify an eastward shift far off of Japan. This is making IMD look good in comparison

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 115kts.

18W PHANFONE 141003 1800 24.7N 133.4E WPAC 115 936

[cycloneye]

TPPN11 PGTW 031806

A. TYPHOON 18W (PHANFONE)

B. 03/1732Z

C. 24.7N

D. 133.4E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR W EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.0. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/1239Z 24.1N 133.9E MMHS


BERMEA

[cycloneye]

21:00 UTC warning graphic.

[Alyono]

facepalm

[gatorcane]

18z GFS well west of the JMA track. That JMA track needs to shift west.

[euro6208]

2014OCT03 203200 6.6 918.8 129.6 6.6 6.4 6.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 11.24 -75.21 EYE/L 38 IR 60.4 25.08 -133.18 SPRL MTSAT2 32.1

After briefly reaching 7.0 (RAW) earlier, numbers still remain high...

[euro6208]

Category 4 Phanfone...

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (PHANFONE) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 18W (PHANFONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A 30-NM EYE WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 031727Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE
IMAGE ALSO REVEALS A SYMMETRIC SIGNATURE WITH A WELL-DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE ON
EIR ANIMATION, MICROWAVE EYE AND TIGHT-GROUPING OF SATELLITE FIXES
FROM ALL AGENCIES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS BASED ON MATCHING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 18W IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
VIGOROUS OUTFLOW, NAMELY THE IMPROVED POLEWARD CHANNEL AS IT BEGINS
TO TAP INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TY 18W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TOWARD A
LARGE BREAK IN THE STR, POSITIONED SOUTH OF WESTERN JAPAN, CAUSED BY
A BROAD MIDLATITUDE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 18W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THEN
SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE AXIS OF THE STR. BY TAU
36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TY 18W IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY COMPLETE ETT AND GAIN FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS NEAR THE KANTO
PLAIN LENDING INCREASED UNCERTAINTY TO POSITIONING DUE TO A
BROADENING LOW PRESSURE AREA. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM IS
WARM-CORE OR COLD-CORE, STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST DUE TO THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCED BY A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
JAPAN. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED AND IN BETTER AGREEMENT
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS; HOWEVER, DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL TRACK
SPEED DIFFERENCES AND TRACK UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAPID
ETT PROCESS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW.//
NNNN

[Alyono]

available guidance is in agreement

yeah... in agreement that JT is totally blind! Are they really basing their forecast off of the worthless NAVGEM?

[euro6208]

Category 5 next warning?!?

TXPQ21 KNES 032209
TCSWNP

A. 18W (PHANFONE)

B. 03/2101Z

C. 25.0N

D. 133.1E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM DEVELOPED STEADILY OVER THE LAST 24 HRS RESULTING
IN A MET OF 6.5 AND A PT OF 7.0. AT 2101Z, WMG EYE WAS EMBEDDED AND
SURROUNDED IN W, RESULTING IN A DT OF 7.0 USING AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF
+1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO

[Alyono]

JTWC in their infinite wisdom ignores all SSD fixes

[supercane4867]

Regardless of the 21z SSD bulletin, I have to say this is NOT a T7.0 system
Phanfone is nowhere near Cat.5 strength with that large ragged eye and asymmetrical CDO appearance. In fact its current intensity is likely at least 10kt weaker than primary peak

[cycloneye]

Up to 130kts at 00z Best Track:

18W PHANFONE 141004 0000 25.6N 132.8E WPAC 130 926